This week on The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast — the Bank of Canada cuts rates again. But are we at the bottom of this cycle, or is another surprise still coming? As Ottawa gears up to unveil its massive 2026 federal budget, we break down how an $80 billion deficit could completely reshape Canada’s interest rate path and keep borrowing costs higher for longer. What does that mean for homebuyers, investors, and renters? We’ll unpack it all — from a slowing economy to a shifting housing pipeline that’s seeing record rental construction, collapsing building permits, and an alarming wave of cancelled condo projects.

The Bank’s latest 25-basis-point cut brings the overnight rate to 2.25%, right at the bottom of its neutral range. While that offers a small reprieve for variable-rate holders, economists warn we’re nearing the end of this easing cycle. With GDP growth projected at just over 1% for the next two years, and the Bank declaring that U.S. trade tariffs are “fundamentally reshaping Canada’s economy,” we’re entering an adjustment phase — not a boom. At the same time, the government’s expected fiscal stimulus could actually push rates higher over time, as bond markets demand more to finance record-level deficits.

Meanwhile, Canada’s housing pipeline is starting to fracture. New single-family and condo starts are plunging while rental construction surges to all-time highs. Over 110,000 rental units are now underway — half of all new housing starts in the country — even as student demand collapses and rent incentives pile up. In contrast, homeowner-driven construction is at its lowest since 2009, setting the stage for tighter resale supply in the years ahead. The collapse in new condo sales, record cancellations, and vanishing launches in the GTA only reinforce what’s coming — a short-term freeze that could sow the seeds for the next supply crunch.

Mortgage renewals continue to bite, with payments rising roughly $105 per $100,000 borrowed — the steepest increase since the early ’90s. Most borrowers are opting for three- to four-year fixed terms, betting that rates will be lower by mid-decade but perhaps discounting the inflationary pressures that could come with a massive budget. But with consumer confidence now at levels last seen during the financial crisis, Canadians are hesitant to make big moves — even as mortgage affordability improves to its best point since 2021.

And while October’s housing data shows signs of life — with sales volumes and prices at their highest levels of 2025 — the real question is whether this marks a turning point or just a temporary blip. Between fiscal stimulus, trade uncertainty, and a fragile job market, Canada’s housing story is once again at a crossroads. By the end of this week's episode, you’ll know exactly where this market is heading next — and how to position yourself before the next cycle begins.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

According to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association, national home sales declined by 1.7% month-over-month in September, ending a string of steady gains that began in the spring. Even so, this was still the strongest September for sales since 2021. On a year-over-year basis, transactions were up 5.2%, while both new listings and total active listings fell 0.8%. That left just 4.4 months of inventory available nationwide — the lowest level since January, and below the long-term average of five months.

The Home Price Index dropped 0.1% month-over-month and is now down 3.4% year-over-year. Average prices, meanwhile, rose a modest 0.7% compared to last year. Regionally, B.C. and Ontario are the only provinces still showing price declines, while every other province posted gains. Yukon led the pack with a 13.4% annual price increase.

But when you adjust for inflation and measure from the February 2022 peak, the story changes dramatically. Real home prices in Canada are now down roughly 29%. In nominal terms, they’re down 18%. Hamilton has taken the biggest hit—down about 40% after inflation—followed by the GTA and then Vancouver, which is sitting around a 20% real decline. On the flip side, Greater Moncton and Saskatoon are actually up roughly 19% nominal, or about 8% in real terms, since that same peak.

The widening gap between new listings and completed sales continues to point toward more downward pressure on prices ahead. And even though affordability has “improved” from the record-breaking lows of 2024, it remains completely out of reach for most Canadians. In Vancouver, the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home still eats up about 87% of the median household income — a figure that’s almost comically unsustainable.

So where does that leave us heading into the final stretch of 2025? Will collapsing affordability finally force the next rate cut — or will the Bank hold the line, freezing the market even further? We break it all down — from record-level mortgage exposure to the cities where prices have quietly crashed 40%.

This episode also marks a huge milestone — Episode 300 of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast. Since launching on June 22nd, 2020, the team has released a new episode every single Saturday without missing a week. Now with over 7,000 subscribers and 70,000+ monthly views, The Vancouver Life remains one of Canada’s most consistent and data-driven real estate channels.

To celebrate, we’re giving away our exclusive Home Seller’s Manual — the guide we use to help clients sell for top dollar. It includes prep strategies, curb-appeal tips, organization hacks, and a 100-point checklist showing which areas matter most. To get your copy make sure you watch the episode and comment TOP DOLLAR.

We also unpack Vancouver’s sweeping new rezoning — a city-initiated move affecting over 4,000 properties across the Broadway Plan and Cambie Corridor. Projects that meet the new criteria can skip rezoning entirely, shaving up to 12 months off approval times. It’s a bold step toward faster housing — but with costs high and demand soft, will developers take advantage?

Episode 300 of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast — available now and join the discussion about where Canada’s housing market is heading next.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Canada’s housing market is undergoing a fundamental transformation—not just in prices, but in the types of homes being built. From Toronto to Vancouver to Calgary, developers are hitting pause, construction starts are slowing, and the mix of housing completions over the next 3 to 5 years is shifting dramatically. Single-family homes and condos, the traditional pillars of Canadian homeownership, are seeing major declines in new construction, while purpose-built rentals are quietly surging to record levels.

Toronto, often viewed as a leading indicator, has seen residential units under construction fall by 2.3% in just the last month and nearly 11% year-over-year. The most significant drop is in condo construction, which is down 16.4%, alongside a 17.1% decline in single-family homes. Meanwhile, purpose-built rentals have jumped 15.5% year-over-year. Vancouver and Calgary mirror this trend to varying degrees. Calgary, in particular, stands out with purpose-built rentals up nearly 55% year-over-year.

This shift signals a fundamental reorientation in Canada’s housing pipeline. Fewer condos and detached homes are on the horizon, while rental supply is set to expand significantly. The likely outcome is continued downward pressure on rental rates, declining returns for individual condo investors, and increased resale activity as holding becomes less attractive. At the same time, the construction of new single-family homes is virtually non-existent outside of legacy luxury pockets like Shaughnessy, West Vancouver, or Point Grey.

Compounding this trend, the future pipeline is showing further weakness. Building permits have fallen 2.4% year-over-year, and when adjusted for inflation, the value of those permits has dropped by nearly 8%, representing over $560 million in reduced residential development. Single-family home permits are down over 10%, and even the more resilient multifamily sector is beginning to slow. Since peaking in December 2024, multifamily permits have declined nearly 29%.

These trends suggest that despite aggressive government incentives to stimulate new housing, developers are losing confidence. Rising costs, softening demand, and bureaucratic friction are now overpowering policy carrots. This disconnect between government ambition and market risk tolerance is emerging as a critical obstacle to new supply.

Nowhere is this more visible than in Burnaby. As one of the first cities to aggressively implement British Columbia’s multiplex zoning legislation, Burnaby fast-tracked significant densification across formerly single-family zones. But as those projects break ground, residents are pushing back. From 4-storey laneway houses to high-density builds with zero parking, public backlash has prompted the city to reconsider.

Together, these data points paint a picture of a housing market that is not just cooling, but reshaping. The supply mix is being rewritten, urban policy is facing backlash, and economic signals are increasingly bifurcated between headline strength and structural weakness. For homeowners, investors, and policymakers alike, the next chapter in Canada’s housing story won’t just be about prices—it will be about purpose.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

This week on The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast, the question hanging over the entire country’s housing market finally takes center stage: How long will this downturn last?

BMO Capital Markets has drawn a striking parallel between today’s Canadian correction and the U.S. housing crash of 2007 — a comparison that has rattled even the most seasoned market watchers. Senior Economist Robert Kavcic doesn’t mince words: Canada’s housing bubble is now in the slow-motion phase of its deflation. Prices, he notes, have been falling for more than three years despite record population growth — a pattern eerily reminiscent of the U.S. trajectory nearly two decades ago.

The difference this time? Canada’s decline is unfolding more gradually, and that could make recovery slower, too. BMO’s data suggest it could take another five years before prices claw their way back to prior peaks, placing today’s correction somewhere between the U.S. Great Recession cycle and Ontario’s prolonged 1990s slump — a potential 12-year arc from top to trough and back again. The bank calls the last decade’s explosive price growth a “perfect storm” unlikely to repeat: cheap credit, pandemic migration, millennial peak demand, and speculative fervor all hitting at once. Those conditions, they argue, are gone for good.

Meanwhile, Canada’s rental market is flashing its own warning signs. Asking rents have fallen for a full year straight — down 3.2% nationally and more than 5% in B.C. and Alberta — with two-thirds of all purpose-built projects now dangling incentives just to fill units. Institutional landlords may weather the storm, but smaller investors are bailing out, adding even more supply to a fragile market.

The slowdown is visible upstream, too. Architecture billings — a leading indicator of future construction — have fallen for 18 consecutive months across North America, the longest slide on record. In B.C., developers are pausing or cancelling projects, from downtown high-rises to suburban townhomes. The stalled Tsawwassen Town Centre redevelopment has become a case study in the friction between city councils, community character, local residents and development economics.

And yet, amid the austerity, Vancouver’s City Council just took an unprecedented step: approving a 0% property-tax increase for 2026. After years of back-to-back hikes totalling more than 30%, Mayor Ken Sim’s administration says the city will instead “find efficiencies” to ease the strain on families and small businesses. Supporters call it relief. Critics call it unsustainable.

But not all the headlines are grim. In False Creek, a shimmering symbol of Vancouver’s high-end resilience emerged: the Tesoro Penthouse, a 5,000-square-foot full-floor residence with panoramic views, listed for $1,5,500,000 just sold for a record-breaking price — the most expensive sale ever recorded in the area. The transaction, closed by The Vancouver Life team, stands as a reminder that even in a cooling market, the city’s top tier still commands global attention.

From the deep freeze of development to the fragile thaw in rentals, this episode dissects what these parallel shifts mean for Canada’s broader housing future — and whether patience, not policy, will be the only real cure for a market learning how to land.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Canada’s housing market is shifting faster than the headlines suggest—and not in one direction. On paper, “affordability” is improving as prices slip and the overnight rate eases to 2.5%, taking ownership costs back toward late-2021 levels. But the market isn’t responding like 2021 because confidence has fractured. Job openings fell 4.2% month-over-month, construction vacancies plunged 14.3% in a single month, and there are now more Canadians on EI (~550k) than there are job postings (~460k). That backdrop makes a million-dollar decision a hard sell. Meanwhile, the presale engine that funds future supply is sputtering: the GTA’s August logged just 300 new-home sales—down 42% year-over-year and 81% below the 10-year norm—with Vancouver operating at roughly a third of typical activity. Builders are finishing what’s already in the ground, but not launching new projects, setting up a delayed-impact shortage later this decade even as today’s prices grind lower.

Policy is tightening, too. OSFI’s 2026 capital rules will stop investors from “re-using” the same rental income to qualify for multiple mortgages and will push more loans into income-producing buckets that carry higher capital charges. Combined-loan products will be treated as defaulted across the bundle if one piece fails. Translation: leverage gets harder for small investors just as institutions—REITs, pensions, private equity—face fewer practical constraints and can buy at scale. The likely result is a further professionalization of the rental market and a harder path to wealth-building via real estate for the middle class. At the same time, the long-standing premium of new-build over resale is wobbling. In the U.S., resale has flipped to price above new for the first time in decades—a signal of builder discounting, smaller product mixes, and the powerful “rate-lock” effect that traps owners in ultra-low mortgages and starves resale supply. Canada is different (shorter mortgage terms), but presale discounts and “more reasonable” launch pricing are appearing here, too.

Macro currents aren’t providing much lift. Housing starts fell 16.3% month-over-month to a 246k pace, with rentals (≈102k) almost matching all single-family plus condo starts—unsustainable without firmer demand and cheaper capital. BC’s single-family permits have collapsed to ~45-year lows, underscoring just how thin end-user appetite is at current price points. Households remain stretched: the debt-service ratio ticked up to 14.4%, near 15-year highs for interest costs, and yet arrears improved modestly and net worth rose with equity markets—an uneasy equilibrium that doesn’t restore confidence. On the ground, October stats still read “slow grind”: sales in Greater Vancouver hovered ~20% below the 10-year average, months of supply kept the market balanced, days-on-market rose for a sixth straight month, and the HPI slipped again—down ~4% from March’s high and back to early-2023 levels. Add it up and you get a market in reset: prices easing, presales anaemic, credit tighter for small landlords, and starts rolling over. In this episode, we unpack what that means for buyers eyeing value, sellers recalibrating expectations, and policymakers deciding whether to intervene—or let the reset run its course.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Canada’s housing market is being battered from every angle, and the cracks are widening into a full-blown crisis. Population growth, the single biggest driver of housing demand, has nearly stalled. Statistics Canada reported Q2 growth of just 47,000 people — a 0.1% increase and the second-slowest pace since 1946, excluding the pandemic. For a country that has leaned heavily on immigration to fuel housing, GDP, and tax revenues, this 80-year low is seismic. Developers who banked on endless inflows are now sitting on record inventories, while Vancouver and Toronto — the markets most dependent on population surges — are already showing demand erosion and softening rents.

At the same time, supply battles are intensifying. Century Group’s Tsawwassen redevelopment was slashed from 1,433 homes to just 600 after NIMBY pushback, despite meeting planning requirements. In Burnaby, petitions against densification threaten to stall family housing. This kind of resistance highlights how hard it will be for cities to meet ambitious housing targets.

Meanwhile, renters are gaining some leverage. Vancouver rents are falling, down 9.3% year-over-year to $2,825, and rental starts have surged to record highs. Landlords are offering concessions, a sharp reversal from the bidding wars of recent years.

Toronto, however, is flashing red. Power-of-sale listings — Ontario’s faster foreclosure alternative — have exploded 14-fold since 2021, now averaging 140 a month and hitting a record 1,200 active listings. Distressed sales are growing while resale volumes remain stuck near generational lows.

National home prices reveal a market split in two. The benchmark fell 20% from the 2022 peak to $686,800, but this correction is almost entirely in Ontario and B.C. Ontario prices are down 26%, B.C. 12% — yet eight of ten provinces hit new record highs this year, with Newfoundland leading.

Zooming in, Vancouver’s inventory has soared to 18,100 homes — the highest in 12 years — while the benchmark price fell for the fifth straight month. Toronto’s market is drowning in inventory, with prices down $312,000 from peak. Together, these metros are dragging national averages while the rest of Canada continues to climb.

This isn’t just a cooling cycle — it’s a structural reckoning. Population growth is slowing, supply is stalling under community resistance, rents are correcting, and distressed sales are rising. The fundamentals that fuelled Canada’s boom — immigration, cheap credit, and confidence — are eroding. The fight for affordability and stability is only just beginning.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Yesterday, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by a quarter point. On paper it may sound small, but in reality it was a major signal. Central banks rarely move in tandem unless the global economy is flashing warning signs. In this case, the cuts were not acts of strength, but indications of a weakening economy. The Fed acted on the back of softening labour and inflation data. The Bank of Canada responded to one of the worst employment reports the country has seen since the financial crisis, alongside a GDP contraction and a decade-long stagnation in productivity.

Canada has shed 106,000 jobs in just two months, the steepest decline since 2009 outside of the pandemic years. The unemployment rate sits at 7.1%, though the reality is worse given the growing number of discouraged workers who are no longer counted in the labour force. GDP shrank 1.6% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, far worse than expected (0.6%), and per capita GDP has not grown since 2016. Productivity has declined in 15 of the past 18 quarters, leaving Canada stuck while the United States continues to pull ahead. Against that backdrop, rate cuts were inevitable. They are not preemptive adjustments - rather it feels like recession management.

What holds the system together in moments like these is confidence. Confidence in the housing market, confidence in the stock market, confidence in government. Yet for many Canadians, that confidence has already been shaken. Housing prices have surged far faster than wages, eroding real purchasing power year after year. Families increasingly feel that elected officials have failed them, and the erosion of trust has become a slow leak. Rate cuts might offer a momentary reprieve for borrowers, but they cannot restore confidence on their own.

Vancouver, by contrast, is experiencing a rental paradox. Sales ticked up slightly in August, but remain nearly 60% below peak levels. The sales-to-new listings ratio has fallen below 40%, a threshold that historically precedes price declines. Inventory continues to rise, months of supply sit at their highest since 2012, and the price index slipped again last month. At the same time, rental construction is surging. Metro Vancouver will see a 17% increase in rental supply over the next two years, while Kelowna is on track for a staggering 33% increase. With population growth slowing, this supply wave will inevitably push vacancies higher, something Vancouver has not experienced in years. Renters will see relief in the short term, but single-family permits are at record lows, which points to severe shortages by the late 2020s and a return to undersupply by the 2030s for both asset classes.

The central bank cuts will ease borrowing costs slightly, and some buyers will return to the market. But rate cuts cannot create demand where none exists, nor can they resolve structural oversupply. In fact, by keeping weak projects alive longer, they may extend the correction rather than shorten it. What truly matters is confidence.

Rate cuts feel like gifts, but they are really warning signals. They tell us that fragility is here, not ahead. The question is whether we treat this fragility as a chance to reset and rebuild trust, or whether we allow confidence to erode further. Because when confidence is restored—in our homes, in our markets, and in our leaders—the system doesn’t just hold. It thrives.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Vancouver’s rental market is undergoing substantial rental correction. For years, the story was one of relentless increases: month after month of record-high rents, bidding wars for apartments, and vacancy rates scraping along the bottom. But the tide has shifted. In fact, Vancouver has just recorded the sharpest annual drop in average asking rents among Canada’s major markets. According to Rentals.ca, apartment listings in Vancouver fell nearly 10% year over year to around $2,820. One-bedroom units led the way down, declining more than 8% to an average of $2,515, while two-bedrooms also softened. The notable exception is three-bedroom units, which remain in scarce supply and saw rents climb more than 6% year over year.

But while headline rents on newly listed apartments are retreating, the broader picture is more complicated. CMHC data shows that rents across the existing purpose-built rental stock in Vancouver continue to rise, up about 5.5% year over year, even as the vacancy rate nudged higher to 1.6%. That is the highest vacancy rate the region has seen in a decade, aside from the pandemic period, yet it is still well below what most economists would consider a balanced rental market. The discrepancy between falling asking rents and rising average stock rents highlights a fundamental dynamic: newcomers to the market may be finding more leverage, while existing tenants continue to see increases when they renew or adjust their leases.

Another major factor reshaping the market is supply. For years, Vancouver was criticized for under-building purpose-built rental housing. That has changed. Metro Vancouver added roughly 2,467 new rental units in 2024 alone, with the City of Vancouver accounting for more than 500 of them. In fact, Vancouver represented nearly half of the region’s new rental housing starts. Developers, facing more difficult financing conditions and slower condo absorption, are increasingly pivoting away from strata sales and delivering rental product instead. The result is a short-term bulge in completions that is giving renters more choice, while also forcing landlords of new projects to offer incentives like free months of rent or reduced parking fees to fill units.

The question, then, is where does this market go next? The outlook is nuanced. On one hand, more supply is coming, immigration is expected to moderate, and the labour market is showing signs of strain. All of these factors point toward softer rent growth and potentially more incentives in the short term, especially in smaller, premium units that already face price resistance. On the other hand, family-sized rentals remain undersupplied, and demand for two- and three-bedroom units remains resilient.

In this episode, we sit down with Keaton Bessy, owner of GVTPM, to break down what’s really happening on the ground. We look at the contradictions in the data, the impact of new purpose-built supply, and the growing divide between small apartments and larger family homes. We also discuss the potential influence of interest rate cuts, the tactics landlords can use to stay competitive in a cooling market, and the kinds of concessions renters are now beginning to ask for.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com