This is The Iron Horse Daily Brief for Thursday, November 13, 2025.

Here's what moved overnight, and what it means for your capital.

WTI crude fell to $58.39 per barrel, down 4.34 percent. Brent crude dropped to $62.64 per barrel, down 3.87 percent. Natural gas held at $4.55 per MMBtu, down slightly but still elevated year-over-year.

The sell-off intensified after OPEC reversed its third-quarter forecast. The group now estimates a 500,000 barrel per day surplus, a complete reversal from its prior 400,000 barrel per day deficit forecast. U.S. crude production hit a record 13.651 million barrels per day. OPEC+ announced it will pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026.

Today, the market is watching two key data releases: the Consumer Price Index and EIA crude oil inventory data. The CPI will provide insight into inflation trends that could impact Federal Reserve policy. EIA inventories are forecast to rise by 1 million barrels, following last week's 5.2 million barrel build.

The headlines are screaming oversupply. OPEC sees a surplus. U.S. production is at record highs. The dollar is strong, pressuring commodity prices.

But here's what the herd is missing.

The IEA just reversed its peak oil demand thesis. In its World Energy Outlook published this week, the agency now projects global oil and gas demand will continue rising through 2050. That's a complete reversal from its previous forecast of peak demand before the end of this decade.

China is still fast-tracking 169 million barrels of new strategic storage capacity by 2026. They're stockpiling at cycle lows, not dumping demand.

On natural gas, LNG exports are averaging 17.8 billion cubic feet per day in November, near record levels. New LNG projects are adding 300 billion cubic meters of annual export capacity by 2030, a 50 percent increase. The EIA expects natural gas to average $4.00 per MMBtu in 2026, up 16 percent year-over-year.

Geopolitically, U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft are creating long-term supply risks. Lukoil declared force majeure on shipments from Iraq. The market is pricing in oversupply today, but geopolitical risk is building beneath the surface.

The read: WTI at $58.39. Brent at $62.64. OPEC reversed its forecast to a 500,000 barrel per day surplus. U.S. production hit a record 13.651 million barrels per day. But the IEA just reversed its peak demand thesis, now projecting demand rising through 2050. China is adding 169 million barrels of storage capacity and stockpiling at these prices. Natural gas LNG exports are hitting record levels, with 300 billion cubic meters of new capacity coming online by 2030. The EIA expects natural gas prices up 16 percent in 2026.

The herd sees $58 WTI and panics. Sophisticated investors see China building reserves at cycle lows, the IEA reversing its demand outlook, and structural natural gas demand accelerating.

The move: Most investors wait for confirmation. They want $70 oil and bullish headlines before they feel safe. But by the time the market breaks out, entry prices are higher, acreage is more expensive, and the asymmetric opportunity is gone.

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That's your brief for Thursday, November 13th. Let's keep building.

KEYWORDS: oil and gas investing, tax deductions, WTI crude, Brent crude, natural gas, working interests, monthly cash flow, OPEC surplus, IEA demand forecast, China strategic reserves, LNG exports, Permian Basin, Iron Horse Energy Fund, geopolitical risk, energy investing

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