Épisodes

  • VIX Closes at 13.60 on December 26, 2025: A Modest Uptick Amid Stable Market Volatility

    VIX Closes at 13.60 on December 26, 2025: A Modest Uptick Amid Stable Market Volatility
    Dec 27 2025
    The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, closed at 13.60 on December 26, 2025, up 0.97 percent from the previous market day's close of 13.47, according to YCharts data sourced from the Chicago Board Options Exchange. This slight uptick marks a modest increase in expected market volatility after a period of decline.

    The VIX, often called the fear gauge, measures the market's anticipated 30-day volatility based on S&P 500 index option prices. It tends to rise when stocks fall and ease during rallies, reflecting investor uncertainty. YCharts reports the current level at 13.60, with CBOE's own site showing a spot price of 13.92 as of late December 26, indicating stability in low-teens territory after hitting a 52-week low around 13.38.

    The 0.97 percent gain follows a downtrend from mid-December peaks. On December 18, the VIX spiked to 16.87 amid broader market jitters, possibly tied to year-end positioning and geopolitical tensions like US strikes affecting oil volatility, as noted in CBOE commentary. Since then, it steadily fell to 13.47 on December 24, then edged up. Over the past month, values dropped from highs near 26.42 in late November, signaling calming markets with S&P 500 strength at 6812.63. Year-over-year, it's down 7.67 percent from 14.73, underscoring mean-reversion toward long-term averages.

    Underlying factors for the recent percent change include abating oil supply fears, with WTI implied volatility easing from 68 percent to 51 percent per CBOE, and steady US inflation expectations despite oil jumps. Low VIX readings suggest investor complacency, though historical spikes like 80.86 in 2008 remind of rapid shifts.

    Looking ahead, next data comes December 29. Keep watching for S&P 500 cues driving VIX moves.

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    3 min
  • Volatility Eases: VIX Declines Amid Stabilizing Market Conditions

    Volatility Eases: VIX Declines Amid Stabilizing Market Conditions
    Dec 23 2025
    The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, stands at a current sale price of 14.91 as of its latest close on December 19, 2025, according to FRED data from the St. Louis Fed updated December 22. This reflects a sharp percent change of negative 11.6 percent from the prior close of 16.87 on December 18, dropping from recent highs around 17.62 on December 17 as reported by Investing.com historical rates.

    This decline signals easing market fears, with the VIXoften called the fear gaugepulling back after spiking amid holiday-season uncertainties. Cboe VIX Futures data shows front-month contracts at 23.52 with a 1.02 point drop, or down 4.2 percent, while near-term settlements like VX/Z5 for December 17 settled at 21.77, indicating futures markets pricing in moderated volatility ahead. Underlying factors include stabilizing U.S. equities post-Fed signals, as noted in Cboes Macro Volatility Digest, where implied volatilities eased after FOMC uncertainty but equity vols ticked up slightly on valuation concerns before retracing.

    Trends show volatility choppy lately: from 16.48 on December 16 to 17.62 on December 17, then tumbling, per Investing.com and Perplexity Finance charts. Longer-term, VIX has fluctuated between 14 and 20 this month, with a notable 21.89 percent surge earlier tied to economic cooling fears, now reversing as markets rally into year-end. Cboe reports VIX futures reflecting 30-day S&P 500 implied volatility expectations, currently bending lower on reduced risk premiums.

    Investors watch for jobs data and Fed paths, but this dip suggests calmer trading post-spike.

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    2 min
  • Volatility Drops as Fear Gauge VIX Declines 4.26% in December 2025

    Volatility Drops as Fear Gauge VIX Declines 4.26% in December 2025
    Dec 20 2025
    The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, closed at 16.87 on December 18, 2025, according to FRED St. Louis Fed data updated December 19. This marks a decline of 0.75 points, or 4.26 percent, from the prior session, as reported by Klick Analytics symbol data.

    The drop reflects calming market sentiment after recent turbulence. CBOE's own records show the VIX spot price at 14.91 as of December 19, down 11.62 percent intraday, signaling reduced expectations for near-term S&P 500 swings. The VIX measures 30-day implied volatility from SPX options, often called the fear gauge due to its inverse tie to stocks.

    Recent trends point to mean-reversion, a hallmark of volatility where levels trend toward long-term averages around 17-20. Klick Analytics quick stats list an average of 17.21, with the recent 16.87 near the lower end versus a 52-week high of 52.33 in April 2025 and low of 11.86 in May 2024. Historical data from Investing.com shows volatility: up 4.35 percent one day, down 1.63 percent the next, with bigger swings like 21.89 percent gains earlier.

    Underlying factors include stable oil markets post-U.S. strikes, per CBOE insights, as WTI implied volatility eased from 68 percent to 51 percent without spiking U.S. inflation fears, unlike 2022 events. The VIX's strong inverse S&P 500 link suggests equity gains eased volatility demand. Over weeks, it fell from 17.62 on December 17 and 16.48 on December 16, per FRED, amid broader calm.

    Traders note VIX futures and options exploit this, hedging portfolios or betting on volatility premiums over realized levels. CBOE highlights calendar spreads from nine monthly and weekly contracts.

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    3 min
  • Volatility Uptick: S&P 500 Options Pricing Reflects Increased Hedging Demand

    Volatility Uptick: S&P 500 Options Pricing Reflects Increased Hedging Demand
    Dec 18 2025
    According to Cboe’s VIX index dashboard, the Cboe Volatility Index is currently trading at approximately 16½, with a percent change of roughly +7% from the prior close. In simple terms, the “sale price” of volatility has moved up from the mid‑15s into the mid‑16s, reflecting a noticeable but not extreme uptick in implied fear and demand for protection in S&P 500 options.

    Cboe explains that VIX is derived from real-time prices of a wide range of S&P 500 index options, so any increase in the cost of those options will push the index higher. When traders grow more concerned about equity downside or near-term event risk, they bid up out-of-the-money puts and, to a lesser extent, calls. That higher option premium feeds directly into a higher VIX reading.

    Recent historical data from sources such as the Federal Reserve’s FRED database and Investing.com show VIX having spent much of the past several sessions in a relatively low-to-mid range near 15–16, consistent with a market that had been calm but not complacent. The current move higher therefore looks like a short-term repricing of risk rather than a structural volatility regime change.

    The underlying factors behind today’s uptick likely include:
    Broad equity index consolidation after a strong run, which often leads investors to add portfolio hedges.
    Ongoing uncertainty around upcoming economic releases and central bank policy paths, which can increase the perceived need for short-dated options protection.
    Sensitivity to headline risk, where any surprise in geopolitics, earnings, or macro data can quickly alter volatility expectations.

    Trend-wise, VIX has remained well below the extreme levels seen during crisis episodes, suggesting that, while anxiety has risen modestly, markets are still pricing a fairly orderly environment. The pattern of small daily swings around the mid-teens area over recent weeks points to a trading range, with episodic spikes driven by news and event calendars rather than a persistent, trending surge in volatility.

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    3 min
  • Volatility Index Rises Amid Geopolitics and Economic Uncertainty

    Volatility Index Rises Amid Geopolitics and Economic Uncertainty
    Dec 16 2025
    The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, currently stands at a spot price of 16.52 as of December 15, 2025, according to the Cboe website. This reflects a percent change of plus 4.96 percent, or an increase of 0.78 points from the prior close.

    The VIX, often called the fear gauge, measures expected near-term volatility in the S&P 500 Index based on option prices. Cboe reports this latest spot price at 9:15 PM on December 15, with data delayed 20 minutes. The 52-week range shows a high of 60.13 and low of 13.99, indicating the current level is moderate compared to recent extremes.

    For context, the VIX closed at 15.74 on December 12, per FRED St. Louis Fed data updated December 15, up from 14.85 on December 11 and after 16.93 on December 9, per Investing.com historical rates. This recent uptick aligns with the 4.96 percent gain to 16.52. Broader trends show volatility mean-reverting toward long-term averages, with an inverse relationship to S&P 500 gains; as stocks rally, VIX tends to ease, though it can spike on uncertainty.

    Underlying factors for the percent change include stable oil markets post-US strikes, as investors await Iran's response, per Cboe insights. WTI implied volatility eased from 68 percent to 51 percent, reducing supply disruption fears. US inflation expectations held steady despite oil jumps, unlike 2022's Russia-Ukraine crisis. Fed funds futures price a 62 percent chance of a December rate cut, up 35 percent from mid-week, adding to macro volatility. Equity vols rose week-over-week despite rallies, with SPX options implying higher risk premiums amid cooling economy signals and stretched valuations.

    VIX futures for December 17 expiry settled at 21.7706, down slightly, suggesting near-term calm but potential for shifts. Overall, the VIX trend points to modest gains amid geopolitical watchfulness and Fed anticipation, staying below panic levels.

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    3 min
  • Volatility Index Rises, Signaling Market Caution amid Macro Uncertainty

    Volatility Index Rises, Signaling Market Caution amid Macro Uncertainty
    Dec 13 2025
    The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is currently trading at a spot value of 15.66, with a percent change of plus 5.45 percent from the previous close, according to the Cboe VIX dashboard and related VIX products page from Cboe Global Markets.

    This move higher indicates that options traders are demanding more protection against short‑term swings in the S&P 500, pushing implied volatility up. The VIX measures expected 30‑day volatility derived from S&P 500 index option prices, so when put and call premiums rise broadly, the index lifts as well. Cboe notes that the VIX tends to move inversely to the S&P 500, and the latest uptick is consistent with a modest increase in perceived equity market risk and hedging demand.

    Recent context from Cboe’s derivatives commentary highlights several underlying factors that often drive these shifts in VIX: evolving geopolitical risks, especially around energy markets; changes in interest‑rate and inflation expectations; and shifting sentiment around corporate earnings and economic growth. For example, Cboe’s market intelligence updates point out that large moves in commodity volatility, such as in oil, can spill over into equity volatility as investors reassess macro risk and portfolio hedges. When fears of severe disruptions or policy surprises flare, VIX typically jumps; when those fears subside, it mean‑reverts lower.

    From a trend perspective, Cboe’s data shows that the current VIX level of 15.66 sits much closer to its 52‑week low of 13.24 than its high of 60.13, underscoring that, despite the latest daily rise, overall volatility remains relatively subdued versus the extremes seen over the past year. This is consistent with the well‑documented mean‑reverting nature of volatility: after spikes, VIX tends to grind back toward a long‑run average unless new, persistent shocks keep risk premia elevated. Recent daily closes reported by sources that track VIX history, such as the St. Louis Fed’s FRED database and market data providers, show a general drift down from higher autumn readings into the mid‑teens, punctuated by occasional short bursts higher like today’s move.

    In short, today’s VIX “sale price” of 15.66 and its roughly five‑and‑a‑half percent gain reflect a market that is still relatively calm in historical terms, but incrementally more nervous than in the prior session, with traders paying up modestly for short‑term protection as they weigh macro headlines and upcoming data.

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    3 min
  • VIX Jumps Nearly 10%, Signaling Increased Short-Term Volatility in U.S. Equity Market

    VIX Jumps Nearly 10%, Signaling Increased Short-Term Volatility in U.S. Equity Market
    Dec 9 2025
    The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is currently showing a sale price of 16.95, with a percent change of plus 9.99 percent from the last reported level, according to Cboe’s own VIX dashboard.

    That jump of nearly 10 percent reflects a noticeable uptick in expected short‑term volatility for the U.S. equity market, as implied by S&P 500 index option prices. The VIX is built from a wide strip of SPX call and put options, so when traders aggressively buy protection or speculate on downside risk, option premiums rise and the VIX moves higher. Cboe explains that the index is a leading measure of market expectations for 30‑day volatility, and it has historically moved inversely to the S&P 500.

    Recent readings show the VIX climbing off a relatively subdued base: it has been trading in the mid‑teens, well below its 52‑week high near 60 and not far above its 52‑week low around 13, levels Cboe lists on the same dashboard. That context tells us today’s move is significant on the day, but still consistent with a broadly calm, low‑volatility regime compared with the past year’s extremes.

    Several underlying factors typically drive a one‑day rise of this size. First, any pullback in the S&P 500, especially if driven by higher bond yields or shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy, tends to push demand for downside protection higher. Futures and options commentary around U.S. markets in recent sessions has highlighted pressure from higher Treasury yields and renewed uncertainty around the path of interest‑rate cuts, both of which can prompt investors to hedge equity risk more aggressively. Second, elevated event risk—such as upcoming central‑bank meetings, key economic data, or geopolitical developments—can lift implied volatility even if realized price moves remain modest.

    In terms of trend, the VIX has been in a gentle downtrend over recent months from higher levels toward its long‑term, mean‑reverting range, with occasional spikes when macro or geopolitical worries flare. Today’s nearly 10 percent rise fits that pattern: a short‑term volatility flare‑up within a still‑contained overall environment. Unless followed by further equity weakness or new shock headlines, such moves often fade as option sellers step back in and the index gravitates back toward its longer‑run average.

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    3 min
  • Volatility Index Dips, Signaling Calmer Markets Ahead

    Volatility Index Dips, Signaling Calmer Markets Ahead
    Dec 6 2025
    The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is currently showing a spot “sale price” of about 15.50, with Cboe’s own VIX dashboard reporting that as of the last update the index was down 1.77 percent, or 0.28 points, from the prior close. According to Cboe Global Markets, this data is delayed at least 20 minutes, but it is the official reference level for the VIX cash index.

    That percent decline reflects a modest easing in expected near‑term volatility for the U.S. equity market, as implied by S&P 500 index options. Cboe explains that the VIX is derived from a wide range of SPX option prices and serves as a barometer of investor sentiment and market stress. When the VIX drifts lower like this, it typically signals that traders are demanding less option premium to hedge against sharp moves in the S&P 500, often because recent stock performance has been relatively steady and macroeconomic news has come in close to expectations.

    Underlying factors for the recent move include calmer reactions to economic data and corporate earnings, as well as a lack of immediate shock events. Cboe notes that volatility tends to be mean‑reverting: after spikes, the index often grinds back toward a long‑term average. The current mid‑teens level, with a 52‑week range running roughly from the low teens up to around 60, places today’s reading toward the low end of that band, consistent with a market in a more complacent or “risk‑on” posture rather than in crisis mode.

    Another trend visible on the Cboe VIX dashboard is the shape of the VIX futures term structure. Front‑month VIX futures are trading above spot, with near contracts recently quoted in the high teens to around 19 and beyond, showing a mild contango. That pattern suggests traders expect volatility to be somewhat higher in the months ahead than it is today, even as the spot index drifts lower in the short term. This is common when markets are calm but there is lingering uncertainty about future policy decisions, growth, or geopolitical risks.

    Overall, the latest reading—a VIX sale price near 15 and a percent change of about negative 1.8 percent—fits into an ongoing trend of subdued realized volatility and a steady normalization after earlier spikes, with investors still paying a small premium for protection against potential surprises down the road, but not signaling immediate fear.

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    3 min