Did Wall Street predict the 2025 market boom, or did they miss the mark?

In this episode of the Capital Stewards Podcast, we are "keeping the receipts." We look back at the forecasts made at the end of 2024 by major firms like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, UBS, and PIMCO—as well as our own internal outlook—to see how they stacked up against reality.

From the "K-shaped" economy and the massive AI CapEx build-out to the surprise performance of International stocks and Gold, we break down what the experts got right and where they completely missed the boat.

In this episode, we cover:

The Economy: Why the recession didn't happen and how AI saved the GDP numbers.

The Stock Market: S&P 500 targets vs. reality (6800+), and the failure of the "broadening rally" thesis.

Bonds & Rates: Did PIMCO make the right call on fixed income?

The Big Surprise: The asset class that rallied over 50% this year.

The Lesson: Why portfolio construction matters more than crystal ball gazing.

The point of this exercise isn't to poke fun at analysts, but to demonstrate the humility required to be a successful long-term investor. If the biggest banks in the world can't predict the short term, how should you build your portfolio?

👇 Chapters:

0:00 - Intro: Keeping the Receipts

1:15 - The 2025 Economy: AI vs. The Real Economy

3:28 - Economic Forecasts (Goldman, JPM, Wells Fargo)

7:05 - The Stock Market: S&P 500 Predictions vs. Reality

9:42 - International Stocks

10:45 - The Bond Market: PIMCO, BlackRock & Rates

12:55 - Gold: The Top Performing Asset of 2025

13:55 - Why We Listen to Outlooks (Despite the Misses)

15:10 - How to Build a Portfolio Without a Crystal Ball

17:35 - Looking Ahead to 2026

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Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.