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Wheat Watch: Bumper Crops, Buyer Leverage, and the USDA Report Looming

Wheat Watch: Bumper Crops, Buyer Leverage, and the USDA Report Looming

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This is your Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Welcome back to the Daily Wheat Price Tracker. I’m Vanessa Clark, here to help you stay up to date with the latest wheat prices and the stories behind the markets. If you want to know what’s moving wheat prices this week, you’re absolutely in the right place.

Let’s jump right into today’s wheat market update for Wednesday, November twelfth, two thousand twenty-five. At the close, December Chicago wheat futures were right around five dollars fifty-one cents per bushel, Kansas City wheat was near five dollars forty-one, and Minneapolis wheat sat at about five dollars eighty-four per bushel. According to several market reports, these prices are holding mostly steady compared to last week, though futures did catch an uptick with some recent volatility after hitting lows back in October.

In the cash market, soft white wheat traded around five dollars ninety cents per bushel on the Portland market, based on recent quality and strong global competition. Across Canada, feed wheat is trading at roughly one hundred sixty-nine dollars fifty-eight cents per metric ton, with red spring wheat closing at about two hundred fifty-five dollars thirty-one cents, reflecting a slight increase from earlier in the week.

The dominant story in wheat right now is all about supply. The International Grains Council says that global wheat production for the twenty-twenty-five to twenty-twenty-six season is projected at a record eight hundred nineteen million tons, thanks to bumper crops in the European Union, Russia, and higher output in the Americas. The U.S. wheat crop specifically has come in with strong quality and abundant supplies, and U.S. Wheat Associates highlight that total production is not only above last year but also above the five-year average.

With so much wheat out there, prices are facing downward pressure. Large exporters like Argentina and Russia have offered highly competitive prices, pushing more grain into the global supply chain than current demand can keep up with. Export flows out of the Black Sea region and Argentina are surging, further putting a lid on any price rallies. So, for U.S. and Canadian growers, this means managing costs and monitoring export opportunities is more important than ever.

Despite all this, demand has been fairly robust. Export inspections for U.S. wheat are running close to twenty percent higher than last year, and wheat exports out of Europe remain healthy, though slightly below last year’s pace.

For those working in the wheat industry, here are a few practical takeaways. First, with plenty of supply on the market, buyers may find opportunities for competitive pricing both domestically and abroad. Second, given the potential for technical rallies when outside markets shift or new export deals emerge, it’s smart to stay alert for buying or selling opportunities that align with your business needs. Lastly, keep an eye on weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere—Australia and Argentina are still bringing in their harvests, and any disruptions there could impact prices quickly.

Before I wrap up, here’s a market outlook to watch. Reports suggest the United States Department of Agriculture is set to release new data in a couple days, and that could shift market sentiment, especially if there are any surprises in supply or demand numbers. For now, expect wheat prices to remain in a holding pattern, with plenty of grain available and buyers enjoying a bit of leverage.

Thanks so much for tuning in to the Daily Wheat Price Tracker. I’m Vanessa Clark. If you found this update helpful, be sure to subscribe and join me again tomorrow for all the latest on global wheat prices and market insights. Until then, wishing you successful trading and a great rest of your day.

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