Late in October, the Communist Party of China concluded the Fourth Plenary session of the 20th Central Committee. Plenums as critically important gatherings of the Party’s elite. This one outlined the vision for China’s overall development for the next five years.

The nutshell version of the long document that was issued was that Xi Jinping’s leadership has taken China down the right path of development and amassing power. So, we should expect more of that—more continuity in policy. In that sense, the Chinese leadership appears extremely confident that history and momentum are on its side. That said, the Party also believes that China is in an era where risks and opportunities coexist.

So when it comes to the balance, do the opportunities outweigh the risks? Or is it the other way around? If you look at developments within China, power has become more centralised and political discipline more exacting. Abroad, China faces a world less willing to accommodate its ambitions, from tense ties with the United States to friction with its neighbours and rising technological barriers.

So how should we read China in 2025? What does the Fourth Plenum reveal about the direction of economic policy, inner-Party debates, the state of the PLA, and the issue of political stability?

To unpack these questions, in this episode of the Great Power Show, I speak with Neil Thomas, Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. Neil’s one of the most astute and thoughtful watchers of Chinese politics. Our conversation begins with how the world looks from Xi Jinping’s vantage point, and what that tells us about China’s evolving political logic and global ambitions. Along the way, we explore China’s current trajectory. We end by contemplating a China without Xi at the helm, and what the next chapter of leadership might mean for Beijing and the world.

As always, I hope you enjoy the discussion. Please like, share, subscribe and rate the episode; and if you’d like to support the show or the work I do, don’t hesitate to reach out to me.