Forget the “real estate is frozen” headline. We dig into what’s actually happening in the housing market and why smart strategy is beating scary narratives. With David Childers, president of Keeping Current Matters, we break down the numbers behind affordability, inventory, pricing, and what a realistic path to 2026 looks like for buyers, sellers, and agents.

We start with a reality check: existing home sales hovering near 4 million and new builds around 700,000 set a durable floor, even as transactions remain slow relative to population. Prices landed near flat nationally in 2025, with no credible forecasts calling for widespread declines over the next five years. The big mover is supply: the South and West have largely refilled to 2019 levels, cooling appreciation, while the Northeast remains severely constrained. We also unpack why turnover hit historic lows and tenure nudged toward ten years, and how that feeds alarming headlines without capturing on-the-ground behavior.

Then we get tactical. Rate peaks in May and a drift into the low sixes mean average payments dropped by roughly $300 since spring. The difference between 6.25% and 5.99% is often under $50 a month—perfect for debunking the “we’ll wait for five percent” chorus. For sellers, buy-downs often beat price cuts, delivering the monthly payment buyers anchor on at a lower net cost. For agents, trust is the differentiator: publish local inventory and days-on-market snapshots, show price reduction and delisting trends, and lead with two simple questions that open real conversations—Has anyone taken five minutes to explain our market? Is the home you’re in now the right home for you?

As we look to 2026, expect modestly lower rates, slightly higher sales, and normalized price growth. The edge will go to pros who combine calm, optimistic leadership with data-rich storytelling and consistent follow-through. If that sounds like your playbook, you’re already ahead.

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