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Empty Planet

The Shock of Global Population Decline

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Empty Planet

Auteur(s): Darrell Bricker, John Ibbitson
Narrateur(s): Robert Petkoff
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An award-winning journalist and leading international social researcher make the provocative argument that the global population will soon begin to decline, dramatically reshaping the social, political, and economic landscape.

For half a century, statisticians, pundits, and politicians have warned that a burgeoning population will soon overwhelm the earth's resources. But a growing number of experts are sounding a different alarm. Rather than continuing to increase exponentially, they argue, the global population is headed for a steep decline - and in many countries, that decline has already begun.

In Empty Planet, John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker find that a smaller global population will bring with it many benefits: fewer workers will command higher wages; the environment will improve; the risk of famine will wane; and falling birthrates in the developing world will bring greater affluence and autonomy for women.

But enormous disruption lies ahead, too. We can already see the effects in Europe and parts of Asia, as aging populations and worker shortages weaken the economy and impose crippling demands on healthcare and social security. The United States and Canada are well-positioned to successfully navigate these coming demographic shifts - that is, unless growing isolationism leads us to close ourselves off just as openness becomes more critical to our survival than ever.

Rigorously researched and deeply compelling, Empty Planet offers a vision of a future that we can no longer prevent - but one that we can shape, if we choose.

Praise for Empty Planet

“An ambitious reimagining of our demographic future.” (The New York Times Book Review)

“The authors combine a mastery of social-science research with enough journalistic flair to convince fair-minded readers of a simple fact: Fertility is falling faster than most experts can readily explain, driven by persistent forces.” (The Wall Street Journal)

“The beauty of this book is that it links hard-to-grasp global trends to the easy to-understand individual choices being made all over the world today . . . a gripping narrative of a world on the cusp of profound change.” (The New Statesman)

©2019 Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson (P)2019 Random House Audio Anthropologie Sciences sociales Afrique Chine Capitalisme Système solaire Impérialisme Réfugié Moyen Âge Socialisme Amérique Latine Japon impérial Justice sociale Moyen-Orient

Ce que les critiques en disent

"The authors combine a mastery of social-science research with enough journalistic flair to convince fair-minded readers of a simple fact: Fertility is falling faster than most experts can readily explain, driven by persistent forces." (The Wall Street Journal)

“John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker have written a sparkling and enlightening guide to the contemporary world of fertility as small family sizes and plunging rates of child-bearing go global.” (The Globe and Mail)

“Arresting...lucid, trenchant and very readable, the authors' arguments upend consensus ideas about everything from the environment to immigration; the result is a stimulating challenge to conventional wisdom." (Publishers Weekly, starred review)

“Warnings of catastrophic world overpopulation have filled the media since the 1960s, so this expert, well-researched explanation that it's not happening will surprise many readers...delightfully stimulating.” (Kirkus Reviews, starred review)

"Thanks to the authors’ painstaking fact-finding and cogent analysis, [Empty Planet] offers ample and persuasive arguments for a re-evaluation of conventional wisdom." (Booklist)

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Les plus pertinents  
The worlds population is declining and there is nothing we can do about it. As globalization, women's education and contraception reach all corners of the world people are choosing to have less children . This will have enormously consequences economically, socially and geopolitically. Countries that are smart should be like Canada (the author's home country) and take in large amount of economic migrants and refugees to bolster their aging populations. Canada is a shining example of what the authors refer to as "post national multiculturalism." Nations that try to isolate themselves from this inevitability will shrink and possibly wither to near extinction and diminished power and influence.

I discovered Ibbitson reading his very regular contributions to The Globe And Mail. As a journalist he tends to write extremely pro immigration articles with devout conviction that can almost feel like propaganda with the frequency they pop up in the newspaper. As a Canadian myself, I wanted to try to understand where he was coming from.

The book has some very interesting points. A mixture of quantitative data and in person interviews and investigations. Case studies from around the world. It is a strong theory and they back it up fairly well. With the speed the world seems to be changing right now will there be events and variables in the next hundred years that could throw these trends in other directions? Your guess is probably as good as theirs.



There eventually will be no more people?

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An interesting read that policy makers around the world may want to consider. The ‘over population’ problem was certainly a difficult one and the gradual reduction of population may be just as difficult.

Is this the better problem?

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I thought this book gave strong arguments showing that the danger of a population explosion is highly unlikely. If we can survive the present and the near future, our planet and our species may have a very positive future

A must read

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Reads like a history book. I see no valuable information to determine trends for today and future. It really reads handicapped by dated information.
Chapter 12 seems to be totally untrue in every sense. Canada is over run with immigrant crimes in every major city. Gangs, money washing. Drugs. Bricker and his partner need to walk the down towns of every Major Canadian city. They are modern day ghettos.
Chapter 13 is a joke that shows how dumb their premise is. If we depopulate we return to days of less people, less consumption. Better environment impacts. I read boom bust echo. It was not totally correct either. But empty planet is a joke, rather than a prognostication of trends. Cities are dying . Remote work will continue to crush high cost living and lifestyle perks. Totally missed the reality of today . Saving grace is it was published in 2019. Authors obviously have not read 4th turning.

Out dated data and off trend of today - flat wrong

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A great piece of current policy writing. This book should be widely read. Solid production and sound quality.

Important book

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THis is an entertaining and thought provoking analysis of global population growth and anticipated decline. It gives some interesting balance to the prevalent worry of overpopulation that sometimes seems to be the only expectation in the general discussion. Generally, they seem to be trying to be fair and balanced in their comments. The humour helps.

At times, I wondered if the authors were not a bit too optimistic. I found myself thinking; what are we missing in the overall equation of a potentially declining population. I don't know, but I still keep wondering.

What I miss is the charts and graphs I suspect are in the books. This is an inherent problem with audio books. No way to look at references, foot notes, etc. Having that information helps validate the arguments presented.

Worth the Listen

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This is an easy to follow readable review of some of the major demographic trends facing human society. The authors argue that counter to the population bomb arguments of the 1960s, the biggest policy issues facing many countries in the coming decades will be how to deal with a declining population and the rewards, as well as the disruptions, this will present. The journalistic quality of the work makes it an easy and engaging read. The policy solutions the authors offer include presenting Canada's immigration policy as a promising response to demographic decline. There is a great deal more that can be said about immigration as a fix for demographic decline, but the sentiment is well placed and the need for a more expansive understanding of what demographic change means in terms of social policy decisions is a welcome addition. However, throughout the book there was one issue that I found problematic. Demographic decline is premised on the decline in the total fertility rate (TFR), the number of children a woman is expected to have. The TFR has been declining most everywhere, and this is seen in part as the result of increased access to reproductive medicine, women's improved autonomy and education, delayed marriage age and related economic improvements. The assumption implicitly expressed in this book that this will continue unabated is problematic. Gender equality does tend to increase along with economic development, but researchers have also shown that the relationship is not monotonic, i.e., one does not continually rise along with the other. Instead what is known as a Kuznets S curve occurs, as GDP increases gender equality can plateau or reverse at certain points. In effect there is a backlash, and women's autonomy and rights can stall or reverse. We see this as women are given the right to enter male dominated occupations such as policing, the military and emergency responses, but they face the intolerable wall of sexual harassment and discrimination, to which institutions and leaders are slow and reluctant to act against. We can see this in play in the USA where the Supreme Court prepares to hear cases that might overturn Roe Vs Wade and deny women the right to control their own reproductive systems (something poor racialized women already experience in the US and in several other nations). We see this in Hungary, where gender studies have been banned by PM Viktor Orbán, and in the recent US agreement to withdraw from Afghanistan, where women’s rights were not included in the agreement. These examples, and many more, indicate that we cannot assume women's autonomy and control over their bodies will continue on an unabated upward trajectory.

Demographic change is rooted in women's rights. The reproductive rights revolution of the 1960s was cast as "as the genie that was out of the bottle", it was seen as unlikely to be put back in. However, significant political shifts, many associated with the rise of autocracy that we have seen in Hungary, place the trajectory of women's and other minority rights at risk. We cannot be complacent and assume such patterns will continue unabated without concerted political protection and civil society action.

Paying attention to the power of demography

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I thoroughly enjoyed the book and the narrator is exceptional. I think he might have narrated The Power of Habit as well, but I'm going from memory. I was looking for a macro economic analysis of what should happen with a declining global population. What you get is 90% of the book dedicated to convincing you that the global population is going to peak and then start to decline. This is an unwavering prediction until the very last chapter when the authors muse that perhaps in the future the decline will stop and humans will somehow suddenly decide to start growing the population again. Whatever. That's the trouble with predicting the future. i had already accepted the idea that the global population will peak and then shrink. What I want to know is what becomes of capitalism in a world with a shrinking population? You know, capitalism - that thing that has created all the wealth and stuff that we in the developed world have been enjoying for all these years. Capitalism is premised on a model of perpetual growth. There is no other form of capitalism. Capitalism drives innovation. Competition drives investment. The pie needs to grow. Wealth must be created forever. Growth consumes resources and relies on the promise that more people will want your product or service tomorrow than want it today. It relies on the notion that the money I invest today will yield more money tomorrow. If you aren't growing, you are dying. Investment is driven by an expectation of growth. The Gross domestic product needs to grow. Pension plans need to grow. Infrastructure investment relies on the expectation that it will serve a growing population and a growing tax base. More houses are built to serve a growing population. Those houses appreciate in value because of supply and demand. The demand goes up and outpaces supply. The moment that reverses you have deflation. People don't buy today what they expect will be cheaper tomorrow. Investment declines. Market values shrink. Gross domestic product shrinks. Yes you can have a growing share of a shrinking market, but eventually the market dies from lack of investment. Government tax bases cannot grow to provide more services without wealth being created in the marketplace - and governments don't create wealth. I thought this book might address some of these issues. If you are looking for answers to these concerns, you won't find them in this book.

Looking for more macro economic analysis

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Population decline is a serious issue nearly the world over - Darrel Briker and John Ibittson pose a number of theories and possibilities of what this could lead to, with supporting anthropological data - great read!

Thought Provoking With Many Points

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