Farsighted
How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most
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Farsighted
Narrateur(s):
George Newbern, Steven Johnson
Acheter pour 23,31 $
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Narrateur(s):
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George Newbern
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Steven Johnson
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Auteur(s):
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Steven Johnson
À propos de cet audio
Big, life-altering decisions matter so much more than the decisions we make every day, and they're also the most difficult: where to live, whom to marry, what to believe, whether to start a company, how to end a war. There's no one-size-fits-all approach for addressing these kinds of conundrums.
Steven Johnson's classic Where Good Ideas Come From inspired creative people all over the world with new ways of thinking about innovation. In Farsighted, he uncovers powerful tools for honing the important skill of complex decision-making. While you can't model a once-in-a-lifetime choice, you can model the deliberative tactics of expert decision-makers. These experts aren't just the master strategists running major companies or negotiating high-level diplomacy. They're the novelists who draw out the complexity of their characters' inner lives, the city officials who secure long-term water supplies, and the scientists who reckon with future challenges most of us haven't even imagined. The smartest decision-makers don't go with their guts. Their success relies on having a future-oriented approach and the ability to consider all their options in a creative, productive way.
Through compelling stories that reveal surprising insights, Johnson explains how we can most effectively approach the choices that can chart the course of a life, an organization, or a civilization. Farsighted will help you imagine your possible futures and appreciate the subtle intelligence of the choices that shaped our broader social history.
Ce que les critiques en disent
Praise for Farsighted:
“Riveting... As a deep thinker and gifted storyteller, Johnson is the right author to tackle the topic. He’s at his best when analyzing impossibly complex decisions... One of Johnson’s thought-provoking points is that [people who excel at long-term thinking] read novels, which are ideal exercises in mental time travel and empathy. I think he’s right.”—The New York Times Book Review
“Johnson is explicitly focused on real-life decisions that (ideally) involve serious deliberation... [He]reminds us that, fundamentally, choices concern competing narratives, and we’re likely to make better choices if we have richer stories, with more fleshed-out characters, a more nuanced understanding of motives, and a deeper appreciation of how decisions are likely to reverberate and resound.” —The Wall Street Journal
“Johnson is well-placed to dig into these dilemmas of decision-making, as he gracefully serves up examples ranging from 17th-century urban planning to contemporary artificial intelligence.” —Financial Times
“[An] excellent book... altogether insightful.” —Brain Pickings
“An anecdote-packed, insight-laden exploration of what works, and what doesn’t, when it comes to our most complex decisions, Johnson’s latest book makes a convincing case for adding more storytelling to the C-suite and beyond.” —San Francisco Chronicle
“Johnson is a succinct, colorful, and skillful writer, and this book is one of those rare works that is highly relevant to the daily functioning of just about everybody.” —Publishers Weekly
Praise for Steven Johnson:
“Mr. Johnson’s erudition can be quite gobsmacking.” —The Wall Street Journal
“A great science writer.” —Bill Clinton, speaking at the 2013 Clinton Foundation Health Matters conference
“A first-rate storyteller.” —The New York Times
“A maven of the history of ideas.” —The Guardian
“Steven Johnson’s mind works in wondrous ways.” —Seattle Post-Intelligencer
“[An] excellent book… altogether insightful.”
“Riveting... As a deep thinker and gifted storyteller, Johnson is the right author to tackle the topic. He’s at his best when analyzing impossibly complex decisions... One of Johnson’s thought-provoking points is that [people who excel at long-term thinking] read novels, which are ideal exercises in mental time travel and empathy. I think he’s right.”—The New York Times Book Review
“Johnson is explicitly focused on real-life decisions that (ideally) involve serious deliberation... [He]reminds us that, fundamentally, choices concern competing narratives, and we’re likely to make better choices if we have richer stories, with more fleshed-out characters, a more nuanced understanding of motives, and a deeper appreciation of how decisions are likely to reverberate and resound.” —The Wall Street Journal
“Johnson is well-placed to dig into these dilemmas of decision-making, as he gracefully serves up examples ranging from 17th-century urban planning to contemporary artificial intelligence.” —Financial Times
“[An] excellent book... altogether insightful.” —Brain Pickings
“An anecdote-packed, insight-laden exploration of what works, and what doesn’t, when it comes to our most complex decisions, Johnson’s latest book makes a convincing case for adding more storytelling to the C-suite and beyond.” —San Francisco Chronicle
“Johnson is a succinct, colorful, and skillful writer, and this book is one of those rare works that is highly relevant to the daily functioning of just about everybody.” —Publishers Weekly
Praise for Steven Johnson:
“Mr. Johnson’s erudition can be quite gobsmacking.” —The Wall Street Journal
“A great science writer.” —Bill Clinton, speaking at the 2013 Clinton Foundation Health Matters conference
“A first-rate storyteller.” —The New York Times
“A maven of the history of ideas.” —The Guardian
“Steven Johnson’s mind works in wondrous ways.” —Seattle Post-Intelligencer
“[An] excellent book… altogether insightful.”
And yet, you haven’t been taught how to make big decisions well. Not in a systematic fashion. Not in school, not at work, not at home. You’re sometimes told to “just go with your gut.” In other words, using system 1 (from Daniel Kahnemann’s “Thinking Fast and Slow”) for decisions that really should be refined with a system 2 lens – a slower, methodical thinking process.
If you want to learn a framework that can help you and your team (whether it’s your family, friends, or your squad at work) grapple with long-term decision making that incorporates many variables and possibilities, this book is INCREDIBLY useful. It provides you with a 3-step process, along with various tips & tricks at each step. The examples and stories Johnson draws his inspiration from are varied and vivid: from the decision-making process used to capture Osama Bin Laden, to the author’s personal process to decide whether to move to California, and the system Darwin used to decide to get married.
Very few authors are able to distill key insights from different disciplines and tie them together with supporting stories coherently in a narrative that is informative, entertaining, and persuasive. After listening to Steven Johnson’s “Wonderland” podcast, I knew that he was one of the best in the world at doing it. And if you decide to read Farsighted and improve your ability to make decisions by adopting “full-spectrum thinking”, you’ll see what I mean.
Below is my high-level preview of what you can expect to learn in this book.
The primary framework outlined by Johnson consists of 3 steps: Map, Predict, Decide.
Map:
This is when you’re trying to get an idea of what the territory looks like by building a metaphorical map of the decision. This includes writing down the variables that you’re facing, the people that can help you, what the end goal is, and the possible outcomes. A major tool you have your disposal in this step of the process is divergence. In other words, you need to build a (formal or informal) team to help you make your decision and get various opinions. Johnson cites plenty of evidence to show that intellectually diverse teams make better decisions than homogenous ones.
It’s also important at this stage to consider that the “menu” of choices you think you have, might not be complete. Take long walks and talk to your squad about hidden choices that you hadn’t considered.
Predict:
This is when you look at the (updated) menu of choices you have at your disposal, and attempt to predict where each one may lead you. A powerful mental modeling exercise Johnson shares here is the “premortem”, which you’re likely familiar with if you’ve read Kahnemann already. The idea is to imagine that your choice(s) will lead to a disaster. Think about what those possible disasters are, and how your decisions may lead you there. That way, you can cover some of your blind spots and prepare. A useful way to do this is to build a “red team”, where you find people to oppose you at every step of the way and tell you the downsides of every choice you’re considering – so that you can see the full spectrum of possibilities involved in the possible paths your decision can take you.
Another major mental model Johnson dives into here is the idea of building simulations, in whatever way you can. Simulate your decisions before actually committing to any of them. This can be done vicariously, and can even be fictional – which is the value of novels. By seeing how others make decisions and grapple with the complexity of life, we become more prepared to make our own. A more grounded example of a simulation would be the following: if you’re interested in a certain career path, go job shadow your role model for a day. Then you can consider if it’s something that you see yourself doing in the future.
Decide:
Finally, you have to decide. This is when you look at the map you’ve built, the predictions, where sh** might hit the fan along the way, and commit to a course of action. At this point, your gut-thinking is way better than it was before the whole process, because it’s taking a lot more information into account, and has simulated many possibilities. It’s not a myopic, system 1 decision anymore because you’ve supplemented it with a deliberate thinking process. He also shares a few techniques that can help here like value-modeling and cost-benefit analysis. It’s important to note that if a decision is time-limited, you have to get comfortable making decisions with somewhat incomplete information and roll with the punches.
Final thoughts:
As you mature, advance in your career, and build your families, the stakes get bigger and bigger when it comes to the consequences of the decisions you make. And as society evolves, and technology advances, the same applies at a macro scale…with stakes rising exponentially. In order to maximize the probability of favorable outcomes, we need to learn to think more systematically.
If learning The Art & Science of Farsighted Decision-Making is something that appeals to you, hit “Add to Cart.” It could be one of the best decisions you’ll ever make – one that makes all of your subsequent decisions easier and better.
Hit "Add to Cart" - can be your best decision ever
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