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Fooled by Randomness

The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

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Fooled by Randomness

Auteur(s): Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Narrateur(s): Joe Ochman
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À propos de cet audio

 Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.

Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.

This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.

The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

Includes bonus pdf of tables and figures.

PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS:

Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time

A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

“[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink

“The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.”
–Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999

“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”
–Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving

“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.”
–Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate

“We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.”
–Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance

“Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.”
–National Review Développement personnel Investissement Philosophie Réussite Entreprise Mathématiques Investir Stocks

Ce que les critiques en disent

"[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker

“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”
–Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.”
–Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play

“We need a book like this . . . fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.”
–Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance
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Les plus pertinents
this book, and the entire series, has helped to shape my thinking. i especially love Joe Ochmans reading.

Excellent book with a great narrator.

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Highly enjoyable, even to harsh critics like myself. Potent with valuable lessons that translate through the lessons of the market.

Full of wit and laughs

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I have now read all but one of Taleb’s series, and I find myself totally hooked. I graduated with an honours B.Com degree in quantitative methods in 1973, and I honestly feel as though I have just been back to school, but this time with my head screwed on the right way. This book is more lighthearted than the others, but just as instructive, and just as devastating to his many foes - albeit in a “friendlier” manner.
Absolutely required reading for anybody who thinks they understand how financial markets work. Read this book, and think again.

Incomparable

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Excellent book. I will gladly recommend to my friends and family. It is illustrated with many daily life examples. Enjoy it.

Excellent book

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His writing always comes off as highly pretentious and pompous. However, the contents of this book were very valuable. I would absolutely recommend this book to anyone, especially those who are into trading stock/cryptos.

It should be used as a prerequisite before starting your venture into investments.

Yes he's pompous, but the content is amazing.

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This book is by no means a bad one, but if you are actually interested in probability, you might not be interested; this book is about luck, NOT probability. This book does not touch on the actual analysis of probability, instead frustratingly dancing around the subject, avoiding any mention of mathematical underpinings. In fact the author says as much in the introduction, claiming that the subject matter is probability, whilst simultaneously claiming that quantitative probability is to a degree useless, and that the book concerns qualitative probability instead (which most readers would rather refer to as luck).

You might be looking for the book "The drunkard's walk" instead, if you are actually interested in probability.

Interested in probability? Look elsewhere...

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It was as exciting, informative, interesting, or engaging as a local spelling bee or a snobby gossip corner at a private art exhibition. An excruciatingly painful listen. It's only usefulness maybe on a hot air balloon ride that was slowly losing air. The self-indulging back-patting, run-on commentary could release enough hot air to keep the balloon aloft for years. Your only escape from the balloon would be to jump, and to listen to this could cause you to do that. George Carlin said it best .. Wellll, he seems fairly intelligent.. Ahhh, he's full of sh*t!" Save your money and sanity.

HOT AIR!

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I decided to listen to this audiobook because it is so highly recommended by many well regarded investors. I was disappointed to find it rambling and filled with stories and anecdotes that often seem to be provided to show off the author’s knowledge of various subjects. That it took over 8 hours to convey the simple idea that randomness plays a much larger role in life and the markets than usually given credit for speaks to the author’s enjoyment of hearing his own voice and the striking need for an editor. Many of the ideas have been better expressed elsewhere. I shudder to think that his other books are also well regarded and might be equally rambling and self flagellating.

Rambling musings in need of an editor

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