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  • Fortune's Formula

  • The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street
  • Written by: William Poundstone
  • Narrated by: Jeremy Arthur
  • Length: 10 hrs and 2 mins
  • 4.6 out of 5 stars (15 ratings)

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Fortune's Formula

Written by: William Poundstone
Narrated by: Jeremy Arthur
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Publisher's Summary

In 1956 two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory - the basis of computers and the Internet - to the problem of making as much money as possible as fast as possible. 

Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. Thorp took the "Kelly formula" to Las Vegas. It worked. They realized that there was even more money to be made in the stock market. Thorp used the Kelly system with his phenomenally successful hedge fund, Princeton-Newport Partners. Shannon became a successful investor, too, topping even Warren Buffett's rate of return. Fortune's Formula traces how the Kelly formula sparked controversy even as it made fortunes at racetracks, casinos, and trading desks. It reveals the dark side of this alluring scheme, which is founded on exploiting an insider's edge. 

Shannon believed it was possible for a smart investor to beat the market - and Fortune's Formula will convince you that he was right.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your Library section along with the audio. 

©2005 William Poundstone (P)2017 Macmillan Audio

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    5 out of 5 stars

Do you invest? You NEED to listen to this book!

Loved it. Breaks down complicated mathematical problems into "easy" to understand concepts. I loved this book so much I purchased the physical copy to be added to my collection!

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  • Michael
  • 2017-11-08

Could be MUCH shorter

Oddly the narrator repeatedly refers to the accompanying PDF which I could not find. I emailed support about this.

Nevertheless this was a fine book describing the Kelly formula for investment/betting decisions. This remarkably simple formula is powerful, widely applicable, and easy to understand. In fact, it is so easy to understand most of this book is unnecessary to understanding the formula. Much of the book is very mildly interesting stories about shady bookies and investment managers that have little, or nothing, to do with the Kelly Formula along with various other investment/betting strategies having nothing to do with the Kelly Formula.

I was not impressed with the presentation of the St. Petersburg Paradox. It is well described, but the underlying reason for the paradox seems to be completely missed. This is important because the book later discusses the differences between using the arithmetic verse geometric means. The important take away from the St. Petersburg Paradox is that any mean is worthless if the variance is too large. This variance problem is touched on elsewhere in the book, but it is not appropriately highlighted.

The narration is really excellent.

I enjoyed this book but it would have been better if much more focused on simply understanding the Kelly Formula.

10 people found this helpful

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  • HS
  • 2018-09-24

TL;dr Kelly's Criteria

The book has an amazing story to tell but waltzes around it for the first few chapters. It introduces great historical figures such as Shannon and Thorp early on to dazzle everyone about their adventures into gambling. Only a few hours into the book do you get introduced to Kelly's formula. Although Poundstone and Arthur do their best to illustrate the elegance of the formula, it would only serve better with the PDF at hand. It's quite hard for someone to grasp how fast 2 to the 11th power really accumulates first hand.

Overall, great story and good performance. A must read for anyone into money management.

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  • 2LC
  • 2018-07-18

A must read or in this case a must listen

Biography of finding the perfect investment. a brief history of bright people and the association of money putting it to work correctly.

1 person found this helpful

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  • Evan Ratner
  • 2023-02-21

Kelly criterion but much more

This book has a rich detail of organized crime in America to the rise of quant hedge funds all tying back to Ed Thorpe. While Thorpe has his own autobiography the man who beat the market this book is an interesting companion

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  • Robert wallace
  • 2022-07-28

One of my favorite books now

So many big names connected. If you are interested in gambling, markets, information theory, the mob, and the history of many famous smart people, you will love this book. It connects the histories of so many people, it is hard to really summarize. I think overall it is about the kelly formula, but it covers so many other formulas as well, and mostly covers people as they try to beat the systems and make money

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  • Ian R Jackson
  • 2022-06-05

Risk and sizing bets

Great story of under-covered 20th century thinkers and the appropriate way to size bets under uncertainty.

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  • Philo
  • 2022-04-01

Wide-ranging, thought-provoking, fun

The journey between gambling and finance is a favorite and familiar one for me. This is a grand tour of it, with a tilt toward listener entertainment.

This book is good for those who are not too pre-loaded on the pace or subjects, who are open to a wandering sort of story, but for me it all ties together quite well. It is entertaining and enlightening. The array of personalities and cross-overs in finance and certain areas of math here (and their diverse adventures) are amazing. Ed Thorpe was at ground zero of so much! I like especially the author's painstaking consideration of all sides of the Kelly Criterion, next to other investment/trading/betting philosophies and models.

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  • hasan
  • 2022-02-09

loved the book and recommended it.

awesome book. learned about statics and investment relationships. highly recommend thus book. it is not just about investment it could be used for life lesson.

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  • Felipe Politano Lange
  • 2022-01-11

Complete

A little long, but complete briefing of real (important) financial market for comum investor.

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  • Melinda C. Spears
  • 2021-08-15

Fascinating and gripping

Mobs, Fixed horse races, hedge funds losing billions in a few months. Fascinating.

I wish it had went over how to use the Kelly criterion which is what I came for but the story and reasoning in this book is incredible.