Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Échec de l'ajout au panier.
Échec de l'ajout à la liste d'envies.
Échec de la suppression de la liste d’envies.
Échec du suivi du balado
Ne plus suivre le balado a échoué
Obtenez gratuitement l’abonnement Premium Plus pendant 30 jours
Acheter pour 25,00 $
-
Narrateur(s):
-
Joel Richards
-
Auteur(s):
-
Philip Tetlock
-
Dan Gardner
À propos de cet audio
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.
©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.Vous pourriez aussi aimer...
-
Genesis
- Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit
- Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, Craig Mundie, Autres
- Narrateur(s): Byron Wagner
- Durée: 6 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global2
-
Performance2
-
Histoire2
As Artificial Intelligence (AI) becomes more dynamic and ubiquitous, it is dramatically empowering people in all walks of life while also giving rise to urgent questions about the future of humanity—a historic challenge whose contours and consequences are revealed by three eminent thinkers in...
-
-
Power, morality and the Future of Ai
- Écrit par Matthew le 2025-10-02
Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Autres
-
Agentic Artificial Intelligence
- Harnessing AI Agents to Reinvent Business, Work and Life
- Auteur(s): Pascal Bornet, Jochen Wirtz, Thomas H. Davenport, Autres
- Narrateur(s): Rory Young
- Durée: 14 h et 42 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global7
-
Performance6
-
Histoire6
This is a practical, non-technical guide for business leaders, entrepreneurs, and curious minds. This comprehensive guide on agentic AI cuts through the hype and offers a clear, jargon-free strategic roadmap to understanding and applying this technology. The authors bring a rare perspective, having implemented agentic AI across diverse organizations—from global enterprises to agile startups—witnessing both remarkable successes and sobering failures.
-
-
Good and controversial
- Écrit par AP le 2025-12-18
Auteur(s): Pascal Bornet, Autres
-
Objections
- The Ultimate Guide for Mastering the Art and Science of Getting past No
- Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Mark Hunter - foreword by
- Narrateur(s): Jeb Blount
- Durée: 5 h et 53 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global124
-
Performance90
-
Histoire88
Every salesperson must endure many NOs in order to get to YES. Objections don't care or consider: who you are, what you sell, how you sell, or if you are new to sales or a veteran. For as long as salespeople have been asking buyers to make commitments, buyers have been throwing out objections. And, for as long as buyers have been saying no, salespeople have yearned for the secrets to getting past those NOs. Objections is a comprehensive and contemporary guide that engages your heart and mind.
-
-
practical and honest
- Écrit par Mike le 2020-05-10
Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Autres
-
Factfulness
- Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World - and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
- Auteur(s): Hans Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund, Ola Rosling
- Narrateur(s): Richard Harries
- Durée: 8 h et 51 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global503
-
Performance423
-
Histoire422
Factfulness: The stress-reducing habit of carrying only opinions for which you have strong supporting facts. When asked simple questions about global trends - what percentage of the world's population live in poverty; why the world's population is increasing; how many girls finish school - we systematically get the answers wrong. In Factfulness, professor of international health and global TED phenomenon Hans Rosling, together with his two longtime collaborators, Anna and Ola, offers a radical new explanation of why this happens.
-
-
Helping you clear your head of the NOISE.
- Écrit par Anthony I le 2018-11-30
Auteur(s): Hans Rosling, Autres
-
Oversubscribed
- How to Get People Lined Up to Do Business with You (2nd Edition)
- Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Narrateur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Durée: 6 h et 33 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global22
-
Performance17
-
Histoire17
Oversubscribed is the guide to transforming your business into one which customers fight over! Author Daniel Priestley, a successful entrepreneur who has built and sold businesses around the world, shares proven, real-world methods that will not only grab customers’ attention, but will also have them lining up to buy from you. This invaluable guide will teach you how to drive demand for your products or services far beyond supply and will dramatically increase the success of your business.
-
-
Excellent
- Écrit par D W le 2024-12-01
Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
-
Key Person of Influence
- The Five-Step Method to Become One of the Most Highly Valued and Highly Paid People in Your Industry
- Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Narrateur(s): Michael Maloney
- Durée: 4 h et 50 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global29
-
Performance24
-
Histoire24
Every industry revolves around Key People of Influence. Their names come up in conversation. They attract opportunities. They earn more money. Many people think it takes decades of hard work, academic qualifications and a generous measure of good luck to become a Key Person of Influence. This audiobook shows you that there is a five-step strategy for fast-tracking your way to the inner circle of the industry you love. Your ability to succeed depends on your ability to influence. Start now by listening to this audiobook.
-
-
powerful!
- Écrit par Amazon Customer le 2024-06-29
Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
-
Genesis
- Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit
- Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, Craig Mundie, Autres
- Narrateur(s): Byron Wagner
- Durée: 6 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global2
-
Performance2
-
Histoire2
As Artificial Intelligence (AI) becomes more dynamic and ubiquitous, it is dramatically empowering people in all walks of life while also giving rise to urgent questions about the future of humanity—a historic challenge whose contours and consequences are revealed by three eminent thinkers in...
-
-
Power, morality and the Future of Ai
- Écrit par Matthew le 2025-10-02
Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Autres
-
Agentic Artificial Intelligence
- Harnessing AI Agents to Reinvent Business, Work and Life
- Auteur(s): Pascal Bornet, Jochen Wirtz, Thomas H. Davenport, Autres
- Narrateur(s): Rory Young
- Durée: 14 h et 42 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global7
-
Performance6
-
Histoire6
This is a practical, non-technical guide for business leaders, entrepreneurs, and curious minds. This comprehensive guide on agentic AI cuts through the hype and offers a clear, jargon-free strategic roadmap to understanding and applying this technology. The authors bring a rare perspective, having implemented agentic AI across diverse organizations—from global enterprises to agile startups—witnessing both remarkable successes and sobering failures.
-
-
Good and controversial
- Écrit par AP le 2025-12-18
Auteur(s): Pascal Bornet, Autres
-
Objections
- The Ultimate Guide for Mastering the Art and Science of Getting past No
- Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Mark Hunter - foreword by
- Narrateur(s): Jeb Blount
- Durée: 5 h et 53 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global124
-
Performance90
-
Histoire88
Every salesperson must endure many NOs in order to get to YES. Objections don't care or consider: who you are, what you sell, how you sell, or if you are new to sales or a veteran. For as long as salespeople have been asking buyers to make commitments, buyers have been throwing out objections. And, for as long as buyers have been saying no, salespeople have yearned for the secrets to getting past those NOs. Objections is a comprehensive and contemporary guide that engages your heart and mind.
-
-
practical and honest
- Écrit par Mike le 2020-05-10
Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Autres
-
Factfulness
- Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World - and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
- Auteur(s): Hans Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund, Ola Rosling
- Narrateur(s): Richard Harries
- Durée: 8 h et 51 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global503
-
Performance423
-
Histoire422
Factfulness: The stress-reducing habit of carrying only opinions for which you have strong supporting facts. When asked simple questions about global trends - what percentage of the world's population live in poverty; why the world's population is increasing; how many girls finish school - we systematically get the answers wrong. In Factfulness, professor of international health and global TED phenomenon Hans Rosling, together with his two longtime collaborators, Anna and Ola, offers a radical new explanation of why this happens.
-
-
Helping you clear your head of the NOISE.
- Écrit par Anthony I le 2018-11-30
Auteur(s): Hans Rosling, Autres
-
Oversubscribed
- How to Get People Lined Up to Do Business with You (2nd Edition)
- Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Narrateur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Durée: 6 h et 33 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global22
-
Performance17
-
Histoire17
Oversubscribed is the guide to transforming your business into one which customers fight over! Author Daniel Priestley, a successful entrepreneur who has built and sold businesses around the world, shares proven, real-world methods that will not only grab customers’ attention, but will also have them lining up to buy from you. This invaluable guide will teach you how to drive demand for your products or services far beyond supply and will dramatically increase the success of your business.
-
-
Excellent
- Écrit par D W le 2024-12-01
Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
-
Key Person of Influence
- The Five-Step Method to Become One of the Most Highly Valued and Highly Paid People in Your Industry
- Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Narrateur(s): Michael Maloney
- Durée: 4 h et 50 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global29
-
Performance24
-
Histoire24
Every industry revolves around Key People of Influence. Their names come up in conversation. They attract opportunities. They earn more money. Many people think it takes decades of hard work, academic qualifications and a generous measure of good luck to become a Key Person of Influence. This audiobook shows you that there is a five-step strategy for fast-tracking your way to the inner circle of the industry you love. Your ability to succeed depends on your ability to influence. Start now by listening to this audiobook.
-
-
powerful!
- Écrit par Amazon Customer le 2024-06-29
Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
-
Palo Alto
- A History of California, Capitalism, and the World
- Auteur(s): Malcolm Harris
- Narrateur(s): Patrick Harrison
- Durée: 28 h et 20 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global4
-
Performance4
-
Histoire4
The history of Silicon Valley, from railroads to microchips, is an “extraordinary” story of disruption and destruction, told for the first time in this comprehensive, jaw-dropping narrative (Greg Grandin, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The End of the Myth). Palo Alto’s weather is...
-
-
Fantastic
- Écrit par Carl G le 2023-06-26
Auteur(s): Malcolm Harris
-
Hook Point
- How to Stand Out in a 3-Second World
- Auteur(s): Brendan Kane
- Narrateur(s): Brendan Kane
- Durée: 8 h et 11 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global56
-
Performance43
-
Histoire43
Brendan Kane, a thinker and strategist who’s built platforms for celebrities like Taylor Swift and Rhianna and worked with Fortune 500 companies like Paramount and Viacom, has mastered the art of standing out. In Hook Point: How to Stand Out in a 3-Second World, he reveals the power of hook points—a communication tool that helps marketers package their messages in a succinct, attention-grabbing way that leads to better opportunities both online and off. Whatever you’re promoting, this book is the essential guide for making it in our three-second world.
-
-
Great conent, hate the continuou sales
- Écrit par Utilisateur anonyme le 2021-03-05
Auteur(s): Brendan Kane
-
The AI-Driven Leader
- Harnessing AI to Make Faster, Smarter Decisions
- Auteur(s): Geoff Woods
- Narrateur(s): Geoff Woods
- Durée: 6 h et 39 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global6
-
Performance6
-
Histoire6
The difference between growing your business and going out of business is your ability to think strategically. The problem is, most leaders are stuck in the operational weeds, struggling to find the time to make better strategic decisions. This challenge is only heightened by the rise of AI. While you know AI is the future, current demands leave you with no time to explore its benefits. Meanwhile, your competition is gaining an edge by integrating AI. The time to act is now.
-
-
Not much more than author’s business promotion
- Écrit par Hugh K. le 2026-02-02
Auteur(s): Geoff Woods
-
How to Make a Few Billion Dollars
- Auteur(s): Brad Jacobs
- Narrateur(s): Brad Jacobs
- Durée: 5 h et 37 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global4
-
Performance4
-
Histoire4
In How to Make a Few Billion Dollars, Jacobs defines the mindset that drives his remarkable success in corporate America—and distills a lifetime of business brilliance into a tactical road map.
-
-
Easy read a lot of gems!
- Écrit par Utilisateur anonyme le 2026-01-09
Auteur(s): Brad Jacobs
-
The Developing Mind, Third Edition
- How Relationships and the Brain Interact to Shape Who We Are
- Auteur(s): Daniel J. Siegel M.D.
- Narrateur(s): Fred Stella
- Durée: 31 h et 40 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global4
-
Performance4
-
Histoire4
This highly influential work - now in a revised and expanded third edition incorporating major advances in the field - gives clinicians, educators, and students a new understanding of what the mind is, how it grows, and how to promote healthy development and resilience.
Auteur(s): Daniel J. Siegel M.D.
-
Tell Yourself a Better Lie
- Use the Power of Rapid Transformational Therapy to Edit Your Story and Rewrite Your Life.
- Auteur(s): Marisa Peer
- Narrateur(s): Carlyss Peer
- Durée: 8 h et 36 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global31
-
Performance27
-
Histoire27
Our lives are defined by the stories we tell ourselves, but those stories aren't always true. Narratives that are based on outdated or irrelevant information can run (or ruin) our lives for years, even if those stories are wildly different from the objective reality that formed them.
-
-
Profound, Insightful, Amazing.
- Écrit par Mike le 2022-01-13
Auteur(s): Marisa Peer
-
Slouching Towards Utopia
- An Economic History of the Twentieth Century
- Auteur(s): J. Bradford DeLong
- Narrateur(s): Allan Aquino
- Durée: 20 h et 13 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global12
-
Performance10
-
Histoire10
From one of the world’s leading economists, a grand narrative of the century that made us richer than ever, yet left us unsatisfied Before 1870, humanity lived in dire poverty, with a slow crawl of invention offset by a growing population. Then came a great shift: invention sprinted forward...
-
-
Ok, but tough as audible
- Écrit par Amazon Customer le 2023-07-04
Auteur(s): J. Bradford DeLong
-
The Fine Art of Small Talk
- How to Start a Conversation, Keep It Going, Build Networking Skills - and Leave a Positive Impression!
- Auteur(s): Debra Fine
- Narrateur(s): Debra Fine
- Durée: 4 h et 52 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global41
-
Performance35
-
Histoire35
Nationally recognized communication expert, keynote speaker and trainer and best-selling author Debra Fine reveals the techniques and strategies anyone can use to make small talk—in any situation. With practical advice and conversation cheat sheets, The Fine Art of Small Talk will help you learn to feel more comfortable in any type of social situation.
-
-
Simple and yet effective
- Écrit par Max-Alexandre Trahan le 2023-09-08
Auteur(s): Debra Fine
-
The Power of One More
- The Ultimate Guide to Happiness and Success
- Auteur(s): Ed Mylett
- Narrateur(s): Ed Mylett
- Durée: 5 h et 19 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global457
-
Performance391
-
Histoire391
In The Power of One More, renowned keynote speaker and performance expert Ed Mylett draws on thirty years of experience as an entrepreneur and coach to top athletes, entertainers, and business executives to reveal powerful strategies to help you live an extraordinary "one more" life.
-
-
Exhausting Listen - Couldn't Finish
- Écrit par Bert le 2023-07-25
Auteur(s): Ed Mylett
-
How to Master the Art of Selling
- Auteur(s): Tom Hopkins
- Narrateur(s): Bill Foote
- Durée: 15 h et 28 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global27
-
Performance19
-
Histoire19
You're in sales. Whether you call it persuasion or sharing, it all boils down to the same thing: Your aim is to get other people to accept you, your product, or your idea. Within this audiobook are hundreds of ideas and essential sales phrases for doing just that. Tom Hopkins is unique in that he won't teach you any strategy that he hasn't proven to work successfully in real-life selling situations.
-
-
Sales training starts here.
- Écrit par Justin Dormer le 2021-09-29
Auteur(s): Tom Hopkins
-
Welcome to the Universe
- An Astrophysical Tour
- Auteur(s): Michael A. Strauss, J. Richard Gott, Neil deGrasse Tyson
- Narrateur(s): Michael Butler Murray
- Durée: 17 h et 53 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global43
-
Performance34
-
Histoire34
Welcome to the Universe is a personal guided tour of the cosmos by three of today's leading astrophysicists. Inspired by the enormously popular introductory astronomy course that Neil deGrasse Tyson, Michael A. Strauss, and J. Richard Gott taught together at Princeton, this book covers it all - from planets, stars, and galaxies to black holes, wormholes, and time travel.
-
-
Excellent content... annoying narrator
- Écrit par mykey le 2019-04-03
Auteur(s): Michael A. Strauss, Autres
-
Why the Rich Are Getting Richer
- Auteur(s): Tom Wheelwright, Robert T. Kiyosaki
- Narrateur(s): Scott Merriman
- Durée: 6 h et 42 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global126
-
Performance108
-
Histoire108
It’s Robert Kiyosaki’s position that, “It is our educational system that causes the gap between the rich and everyone else.” He laid the foundation for many of his messages in the international best seller Rich Dad Poor Dad, the number one personal finance book of all time, and in Why the Rich Are Getting Richer, he makes his case.
-
-
Pretty informative...
- Écrit par KingofHeat! le 2019-01-28
Auteur(s): Tom Wheelwright, Autres
Overall, somewhat disappointing
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.
loved it
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.