Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Échec de l'ajout au panier.
Échec de l'ajout à la liste d'envies.
Échec de la suppression de la liste d’envies.
Échec du suivi du balado
Ne plus suivre le balado a échoué
0,99 $/mois pendant vos 3 premiers mois
Acheter pour 5,99 $
-
Narrateur(s):
-
Joel Richards
-
Auteur(s):
-
Philip Tetlock
-
Dan Gardner
À propos de cet audio
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.
©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.Vous pourriez aussi aimer...
-
Genesis
- Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit
- Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, Craig Mundie, Autres
- Narrateur(s): Byron Wagner
- Durée: 6 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global2
-
Performance2
-
Histoire2
As Artificial Intelligence (AI) becomes more dynamic and ubiquitous, it is dramatically empowering people in all walks of life while also giving rise to urgent questions about the future of humanity—a historic challenge whose contours and consequences are revealed by three eminent thinkers in...
-
-
Power, morality and the Future of Ai
- Écrit par Matthew le 2025-10-02
Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Autres
-
Objections
- The Ultimate Guide for Mastering the Art and Science of Getting past No
- Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Mark Hunter - foreword by
- Narrateur(s): Jeb Blount
- Durée: 5 h et 53 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global124
-
Performance90
-
Histoire88
Every salesperson must endure many NOs in order to get to YES. Objections don't care or consider: who you are, what you sell, how you sell, or if you are new to sales or a veteran. For as long as salespeople have been asking buyers to make commitments, buyers have been throwing out objections. And, for as long as buyers have been saying no, salespeople have yearned for the secrets to getting past those NOs. Objections is a comprehensive and contemporary guide that engages your heart and mind.
-
-
practical and honest
- Écrit par Mike le 2020-05-10
Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Autres
-
Hook Point
- How to Stand Out in a 3-Second World
- Auteur(s): Brendan Kane
- Narrateur(s): Brendan Kane
- Durée: 8 h et 11 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global56
-
Performance43
-
Histoire43
Brendan Kane, a thinker and strategist who’s built platforms for celebrities like Taylor Swift and Rhianna and worked with Fortune 500 companies like Paramount and Viacom, has mastered the art of standing out. In Hook Point: How to Stand Out in a 3-Second World, he reveals the power of hook points—a communication tool that helps marketers package their messages in a succinct, attention-grabbing way that leads to better opportunities both online and off. Whatever you’re promoting, this book is the essential guide for making it in our three-second world.
-
-
Great conent, hate the continuou sales
- Écrit par Utilisateur anonyme le 2021-03-05
Auteur(s): Brendan Kane
-
Tell Yourself a Better Lie
- Use the Power of Rapid Transformational Therapy to Edit Your Story and Rewrite Your Life.
- Auteur(s): Marisa Peer
- Narrateur(s): Carlyss Peer
- Durée: 8 h et 36 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global31
-
Performance27
-
Histoire27
Our lives are defined by the stories we tell ourselves, but those stories aren't always true. Narratives that are based on outdated or irrelevant information can run (or ruin) our lives for years, even if those stories are wildly different from the objective reality that formed them.
-
-
Profound, Insightful, Amazing.
- Écrit par Mike le 2022-01-13
Auteur(s): Marisa Peer
-
Palo Alto
- A History of California, Capitalism, and the World
- Auteur(s): Malcolm Harris
- Narrateur(s): Patrick Harrison
- Durée: 28 h et 20 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global4
-
Performance4
-
Histoire4
The history of Silicon Valley, from railroads to microchips, is an “extraordinary” story of disruption and destruction, told for the first time in this comprehensive, jaw-dropping narrative (Greg Grandin, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The End of the Myth). Palo Alto’s weather is...
-
-
Fantastic
- Écrit par Carl G le 2023-06-26
Auteur(s): Malcolm Harris
-
The AI-Driven Leader
- Harnessing AI to Make Faster, Smarter Decisions
- Auteur(s): Geoff Woods
- Narrateur(s): Geoff Woods
- Durée: 6 h et 39 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global5
-
Performance5
-
Histoire5
The difference between growing your business and going out of business is your ability to think strategically. The problem is, most leaders are stuck in the operational weeds, struggling to find the time to make better strategic decisions. This challenge is only heightened by the rise of AI. While you know AI is the future, current demands leave you with no time to explore its benefits. Meanwhile, your competition is gaining an edge by integrating AI. The time to act is now.
-
-
Relatable and Applicable
- Écrit par Ethan Goforth le 2025-11-03
Auteur(s): Geoff Woods
-
Genesis
- Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit
- Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, Craig Mundie, Autres
- Narrateur(s): Byron Wagner
- Durée: 6 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global2
-
Performance2
-
Histoire2
As Artificial Intelligence (AI) becomes more dynamic and ubiquitous, it is dramatically empowering people in all walks of life while also giving rise to urgent questions about the future of humanity—a historic challenge whose contours and consequences are revealed by three eminent thinkers in...
-
-
Power, morality and the Future of Ai
- Écrit par Matthew le 2025-10-02
Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Autres
-
Objections
- The Ultimate Guide for Mastering the Art and Science of Getting past No
- Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Mark Hunter - foreword by
- Narrateur(s): Jeb Blount
- Durée: 5 h et 53 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global124
-
Performance90
-
Histoire88
Every salesperson must endure many NOs in order to get to YES. Objections don't care or consider: who you are, what you sell, how you sell, or if you are new to sales or a veteran. For as long as salespeople have been asking buyers to make commitments, buyers have been throwing out objections. And, for as long as buyers have been saying no, salespeople have yearned for the secrets to getting past those NOs. Objections is a comprehensive and contemporary guide that engages your heart and mind.
-
-
practical and honest
- Écrit par Mike le 2020-05-10
Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Autres
-
Hook Point
- How to Stand Out in a 3-Second World
- Auteur(s): Brendan Kane
- Narrateur(s): Brendan Kane
- Durée: 8 h et 11 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global56
-
Performance43
-
Histoire43
Brendan Kane, a thinker and strategist who’s built platforms for celebrities like Taylor Swift and Rhianna and worked with Fortune 500 companies like Paramount and Viacom, has mastered the art of standing out. In Hook Point: How to Stand Out in a 3-Second World, he reveals the power of hook points—a communication tool that helps marketers package their messages in a succinct, attention-grabbing way that leads to better opportunities both online and off. Whatever you’re promoting, this book is the essential guide for making it in our three-second world.
-
-
Great conent, hate the continuou sales
- Écrit par Utilisateur anonyme le 2021-03-05
Auteur(s): Brendan Kane
-
Tell Yourself a Better Lie
- Use the Power of Rapid Transformational Therapy to Edit Your Story and Rewrite Your Life.
- Auteur(s): Marisa Peer
- Narrateur(s): Carlyss Peer
- Durée: 8 h et 36 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global31
-
Performance27
-
Histoire27
Our lives are defined by the stories we tell ourselves, but those stories aren't always true. Narratives that are based on outdated or irrelevant information can run (or ruin) our lives for years, even if those stories are wildly different from the objective reality that formed them.
-
-
Profound, Insightful, Amazing.
- Écrit par Mike le 2022-01-13
Auteur(s): Marisa Peer
-
Palo Alto
- A History of California, Capitalism, and the World
- Auteur(s): Malcolm Harris
- Narrateur(s): Patrick Harrison
- Durée: 28 h et 20 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global4
-
Performance4
-
Histoire4
The history of Silicon Valley, from railroads to microchips, is an “extraordinary” story of disruption and destruction, told for the first time in this comprehensive, jaw-dropping narrative (Greg Grandin, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The End of the Myth). Palo Alto’s weather is...
-
-
Fantastic
- Écrit par Carl G le 2023-06-26
Auteur(s): Malcolm Harris
-
The AI-Driven Leader
- Harnessing AI to Make Faster, Smarter Decisions
- Auteur(s): Geoff Woods
- Narrateur(s): Geoff Woods
- Durée: 6 h et 39 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global5
-
Performance5
-
Histoire5
The difference between growing your business and going out of business is your ability to think strategically. The problem is, most leaders are stuck in the operational weeds, struggling to find the time to make better strategic decisions. This challenge is only heightened by the rise of AI. While you know AI is the future, current demands leave you with no time to explore its benefits. Meanwhile, your competition is gaining an edge by integrating AI. The time to act is now.
-
-
Relatable and Applicable
- Écrit par Ethan Goforth le 2025-11-03
Auteur(s): Geoff Woods
-
The Developing Mind, Third Edition
- How Relationships and the Brain Interact to Shape Who We Are
- Auteur(s): Daniel J. Siegel M.D.
- Narrateur(s): Fred Stella
- Durée: 31 h et 40 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global4
-
Performance4
-
Histoire4
This highly influential work - now in a revised and expanded third edition incorporating major advances in the field - gives clinicians, educators, and students a new understanding of what the mind is, how it grows, and how to promote healthy development and resilience.
Auteur(s): Daniel J. Siegel M.D.
-
Factfulness
- Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World - and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
- Auteur(s): Hans Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund, Ola Rosling
- Narrateur(s): Richard Harries
- Durée: 8 h et 51 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global503
-
Performance423
-
Histoire422
Factfulness: The stress-reducing habit of carrying only opinions for which you have strong supporting facts. When asked simple questions about global trends - what percentage of the world's population live in poverty; why the world's population is increasing; how many girls finish school - we systematically get the answers wrong. In Factfulness, professor of international health and global TED phenomenon Hans Rosling, together with his two longtime collaborators, Anna and Ola, offers a radical new explanation of why this happens.
-
-
Helping you clear your head of the NOISE.
- Écrit par Anthony I le 2018-11-30
Auteur(s): Hans Rosling, Autres
-
Team Topologies: Organizing Business and Technology Teams for Fast Flow
- Auteur(s): Matthew Skelton, Manuel Pais
- Narrateur(s): Edward Bauer
- Durée: 6 h et 31 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global35
-
Performance26
-
Histoire26
Team Topologies is a practical, step-by-step, adaptive model for organizational design and team interaction based on four fundamental team types and three team interaction patterns. It is a model that treats teams as the fundamental means of delivery, where team structures and communication pathways are able to evolve with technological and organizational maturity. In Team Topologies, IT consultants Matthew Skelton and Manuel Pais share secrets of successful team patterns and interactions to help listeners choose and evolve the right team patterns for their organization.
-
-
Extremely helpful vision of engineering teams
- Écrit par Pablo de Oliveira Castro le 2021-08-16
Auteur(s): Matthew Skelton, Autres
-
How to Make a Few Billion Dollars
- Auteur(s): Brad Jacobs
- Narrateur(s): Brad Jacobs
- Durée: 5 h et 37 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global4
-
Performance4
-
Histoire4
In How to Make a Few Billion Dollars, Jacobs defines the mindset that drives his remarkable success in corporate America—and distills a lifetime of business brilliance into a tactical road map.
-
-
Easy read a lot of gems!
- Écrit par Utilisateur anonyme le 2026-01-09
Auteur(s): Brad Jacobs
-
Key Person of Influence
- The Five-Step Method to Become One of the Most Highly Valued and Highly Paid People in Your Industry
- Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Narrateur(s): Michael Maloney
- Durée: 4 h et 50 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global29
-
Performance24
-
Histoire24
Every industry revolves around Key People of Influence. Their names come up in conversation. They attract opportunities. They earn more money. Many people think it takes decades of hard work, academic qualifications and a generous measure of good luck to become a Key Person of Influence. This audiobook shows you that there is a five-step strategy for fast-tracking your way to the inner circle of the industry you love. Your ability to succeed depends on your ability to influence. Start now by listening to this audiobook.
-
-
powerful!
- Écrit par Amazon Customer le 2024-06-29
Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
-
Math Without Numbers
- Auteur(s): Milo Beckman
- Narrateur(s): Soneela Nankani
- Durée: 3 h et 53 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global4
-
Performance3
-
Histoire3
An audio tour of the structures and patterns we call "math" This is an audiobook about math, but it contains no numbers. Math Without Numbers is a vivid, conversational, and wholly original guide to the three main branches of abstract math—topology, analysis, and algebra—which turn out to be...
-
-
A wonderful book about everything
- Écrit par Efik le 2025-01-05
Auteur(s): Milo Beckman
-
The Master Algorithm
- How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World
- Auteur(s): Pedro Domingos
- Narrateur(s): Mel Foster
- Durée: 13 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global47
-
Performance41
-
Histoire41
Under the aegis of machine learning in our data-driven machine age, computers are programming themselves and learning about - and solving - an extraordinary range of problems, from the mundane to the most daunting. Today it is machine learning programs that enable Amazon and Netflix to predict what users will like, Apple to power Siri's ability to understand voices, and Google to pilot cars.
-
-
Worth the read for beginners
- Écrit par Bogdan le 2019-05-24
Auteur(s): Pedro Domingos
-
The Mental Game of Trading
- A System for Solving Problems with Greed, Fear, Anger, Confidence, and Discipline
- Auteur(s): Jared Tendler
- Narrateur(s): Jared Tendler
- Durée: 9 h et 44 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global86
-
Performance56
-
Histoire54
If you are like most traders, you probably overlook or misunderstand mental and emotional obstacles. While many trading psychology books offer sound advice, they don't show you how to do the necessary work. That's why you haven't solved the problems hurting your performance. With straight talk and practical solutions, Jared Tendler brings a new voice to trading psychology. In The Mental Game of Trading, he busts myths about emotions, greed, and discipline, and shows you how to look past the obvious to identify the real reasons you're struggling.
-
-
Good, but outlines an unnecessary path to success
- Écrit par Neil le 2021-07-05
Auteur(s): Jared Tendler
-
Gaslighting
- Recognize Manipulative and Emotionally Abusive People -- and Break Free
- Auteur(s): Stephanie Moulton Sarkis PhD PhD
- Narrateur(s): Suehyla El-Attar, Stephanie Moulton Sarkis PhD PhD
- Durée: 8 h et 32 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global26
-
Performance22
-
Histoire22
A mental health expert sheds light on "gaslighting"--the manipulative technique used by sociopaths, narcissists, and others--offering practical strategies to cope and break free. He's the charmer -- the witty, confident, but overly controlling date. She's the woman on your team who always...
-
-
I'm torn
- Écrit par Catharine le 2023-09-21
Auteur(s): Stephanie Moulton Sarkis PhD PhD
-
Why the Rich Are Getting Richer
- Auteur(s): Tom Wheelwright, Robert T. Kiyosaki
- Narrateur(s): Scott Merriman
- Durée: 6 h et 42 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global126
-
Performance108
-
Histoire108
It’s Robert Kiyosaki’s position that, “It is our educational system that causes the gap between the rich and everyone else.” He laid the foundation for many of his messages in the international best seller Rich Dad Poor Dad, the number one personal finance book of all time, and in Why the Rich Are Getting Richer, he makes his case.
-
-
Pretty informative...
- Écrit par KingofHeat! le 2019-01-28
Auteur(s): Tom Wheelwright, Autres
-
The Science of Attraction
- Flirting, Sex, and How to Engineer Chemistry and Love
- Auteur(s): Patrick King
- Narrateur(s): Joe Hempel
- Durée: 3 h et 17 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global6
-
Performance4
-
Histoire4
The Science of Attraction is an in-depth look at human attraction and what draws people together. It dives into peer-reviewed research, combined with the insightful and straightforward observations of a renowned dating coach. Patrick King is an internationally best-selling author and acclaimed speaker and coach. Together, this book is the ultimate guide to inform, diagnose, and recommend highly actionable steps to take your dating life to the next level.
Auteur(s): Patrick King
-
The Crowd - A Study of the Popular Mind
- Auteur(s): Gustave Le Bon
- Narrateur(s): John Clickman
- Durée: 6 h et 5 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global6
-
Performance5
-
Histoire5
In The Crowd - A Study of the Popular Mind, social theorist Gustave Le Bon gives historical insight into the political thinking of his era while offering timeless social commentary. Le Bon challenges the listener to contemplate how individual ideas change - often to a destructive end - when employed in a setting of groupthink. As technology and communications innovations make group formation easy and accessible for better or for worse, this book's message is certainly one that will not be lost in the crowd.
-
-
Sexist
- Écrit par Donna Trudeau le 2025-09-24
Auteur(s): Gustave Le Bon
Overall, somewhat disappointing
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.
loved it
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.