Three edges for December 15 — Achane Over 78.5 rushing yards, Rockets +1.5, and Zubac Over 11.5 rebounds — built on weather leverage, lineup absences, and possession math.

🏈 De’Von Achane OVER 78.5 Rushing Yards (−110)

Forecast screams “run the ball or freeze on live TV.”
Miami’s entire survival plan becomes Achane + outside zone, and Pittsburgh missing T.J. Watt is essentially removing the bouncer from the club and acting shocked when chaos follows.

Key angles:

• Miami = top-6 in rush DVOA
• Achane = 5.8 YPC, a walking cash register
• Watt OUT = edge-setting void
• Game script = condensed passing, run funnel

Outside-zone spam + cold-weather script = volume + efficiency.
78.5 is a fair line… but not for this matchup.

🏀 Rockets +1.5 (−110) — at Nuggets

Denver’s offense is Jokic jazz; Denver’s defense right now is elevator music. With Aaron Gordon + Christian Braun OUT, the Nuggets lose stops and rebounding presence.

Houston brings the antidote:

• #1 offensive rebounding rate in the NBA (38.3%)
• Real size
• Real physicality
• Extra possessions = points you can’t scheme away

Our rebounding-adjusted model makes this HOU by ~3, not Denver -1.5.
Add Denver’s bizarre four-game home skid, and we’re buying the live dog.

🏀 Ivica Zubac OVER 11.5 Rebounds (−138)

Memphis without Zach Edey is a frontcourt vacuum. A few nights ago, Nurkić casually put up 17 boards on this version of the Grizzlies. Zubac is basically Nurkić with TSA PreCheck and the same job description:
“stand near rim, collect misses.”

Aldama + JJJ chase blocks and drift out of position, which is great for highlights and terrible for box-outs. Our probability model has 12+ boards at ~72%, while the juice implies ~58%.

This isn’t a bet — it’s gravity, priced incorrectly.

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Three edges headline December 14 — two NFL spreads with line value and one NBA total primed for fireworks.

🏈 Rams -6 (–105) — Lions at Rams

Detroit’s secondary is duct tape and wishful thinking (no Branch or Joseph), and now they face the No. 1 EPA offense.

Stafford vs. blitz:

• 132.5 QB rating

• 15 TDs, 0 INTs

McVay’s system isolates backup safeties and attacks open seams. Indoors at SoFi, speed equals punishment.

Model projection: Rams by 10, >60% cover odds.

Blitzing Stafford here is like poking a beehive with a fork — all buzz, no payoff.

🏈 Vikings +5.5 (–109) — Vikings at Cowboys

Dallas is laying points with the 31st-ranked scoring defense and a backup LT (Guyton OUT).

Enter Brian Flores’ defense — No. 2 in blitz rate, elite pressure creation, and a playbook built to compress timing.

Jefferson vs. Dallas’ zone shell = rookie QB’s cheat code.

Cowboys probably win, but it profiles as a one-possession grind.

Classic back-door setup — and we’re holding the door.

🏀 Over 229.5 (–110) — Lakers at Suns

Lakers are an Over machine (17–8 O/U) and last meeting hit 233.

This time:

• Reaves out (defensive downgrade)

• Booker likely back (offensive upgrade)

These two average 233 PPG head-to-head; our projection prints 234.1 with close-game free-throw inflation.

Translation: pack the scoreboard operator a Gatorade.

Three games.

Three clear reads.

One principle: process drives points — or prevents them — by design.

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Three edges for December 13 — an EPL total built on control, a service-academy spread rooted in efficiency, and an NBA favorite with separation baked in.

⚽ Under 3.5 Goals (–135) — Wolves at Arsenal

Arsenal’s identity is clean sheets: 9 goals allowed in 15 matches. Wolves’ identity is… less defined (–25 goal differential, bottom of the table). With a patched back line, Arteta’s likely to lean possession as defense — do the job, don’t invite chaos.

Our model prices Under 3.5 at ~62% (about an 8% edge vs market). This doesn’t need fireworks — it needs control. Think museum tour: lots of looking, no touching. 2–0 or 3–0 covers the script.

🏈 Navy -6.5 (–105) - Army at Navy

This isn’t your granddad’s option offense. Navy is averaging 32.5 PPG, leads the nation in rushing (298.4 YPG), and QB Blake Horvath’s 10.7 YPA freezes safeties who dare peek.

Army can’t chase (last in passing yards) and struggles to get off the field, while Navy converts nearly 50% on third down. Under the key number of 7, this shifts from rock fight to separation. Call it 31–17. Anchors away.

🏀 Thunder -9 (–110) — Spurs vs Thunder (Las Vegas)

OKC has turned the season into a woodchipper: 24–1, +17.5 average margin, #1 defense, and a recent 49-point demolition just to stay warm.

Re-inserting Wembanyama creates short-term spacing and tempo friction, and OKC’s length wins the turnover math early (Q1 Net Rating +20.6). Neutral floor, one-and-done stage, no cruise control. Lay it.