Three edges for December 15 — Achane Over 78.5 rushing yards, Rockets +1.5, and Zubac Over 11.5 rebounds — built on weather leverage, lineup absences, and possession math.

🏈 De’Von Achane OVER 78.5 Rushing Yards (−110)

Forecast screams “run the ball or freeze on live TV.”
Miami’s entire survival plan becomes Achane + outside zone, and Pittsburgh missing T.J. Watt is essentially removing the bouncer from the club and acting shocked when chaos follows.

Key angles:

• Miami = top-6 in rush DVOA
• Achane = 5.8 YPC, a walking cash register
• Watt OUT = edge-setting void
• Game script = condensed passing, run funnel

Outside-zone spam + cold-weather script = volume + efficiency.
78.5 is a fair line… but not for this matchup.

🏀 Rockets +1.5 (−110) — at Nuggets

Denver’s offense is Jokic jazz; Denver’s defense right now is elevator music. With Aaron Gordon + Christian Braun OUT, the Nuggets lose stops and rebounding presence.

Houston brings the antidote:

• #1 offensive rebounding rate in the NBA (38.3%)
• Real size
• Real physicality
• Extra possessions = points you can’t scheme away

Our rebounding-adjusted model makes this HOU by ~3, not Denver -1.5.
Add Denver’s bizarre four-game home skid, and we’re buying the live dog.

🏀 Ivica Zubac OVER 11.5 Rebounds (−138)

Memphis without Zach Edey is a frontcourt vacuum. A few nights ago, Nurkić casually put up 17 boards on this version of the Grizzlies. Zubac is basically Nurkić with TSA PreCheck and the same job description:
“stand near rim, collect misses.”

Aldama + JJJ chase blocks and drift out of position, which is great for highlights and terrible for box-outs. Our probability model has 12+ boards at ~72%, while the juice implies ~58%.

This isn’t a bet — it’s gravity, priced incorrectly.

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Three edges headline December 14 — two NFL spreads with line value and one NBA total primed for fireworks.

🏈 Rams -6 (–105) — Lions at Rams

Detroit’s secondary is duct tape and wishful thinking (no Branch or Joseph), and now they face the No. 1 EPA offense.

Stafford vs. blitz:

• 132.5 QB rating

• 15 TDs, 0 INTs

McVay’s system isolates backup safeties and attacks open seams. Indoors at SoFi, speed equals punishment.

Model projection: Rams by 10, >60% cover odds.

Blitzing Stafford here is like poking a beehive with a fork — all buzz, no payoff.

🏈 Vikings +5.5 (–109) — Vikings at Cowboys

Dallas is laying points with the 31st-ranked scoring defense and a backup LT (Guyton OUT).

Enter Brian Flores’ defense — No. 2 in blitz rate, elite pressure creation, and a playbook built to compress timing.

Jefferson vs. Dallas’ zone shell = rookie QB’s cheat code.

Cowboys probably win, but it profiles as a one-possession grind.

Classic back-door setup — and we’re holding the door.

🏀 Over 229.5 (–110) — Lakers at Suns

Lakers are an Over machine (17–8 O/U) and last meeting hit 233.

This time:

• Reaves out (defensive downgrade)

• Booker likely back (offensive upgrade)

These two average 233 PPG head-to-head; our projection prints 234.1 with close-game free-throw inflation.

Translation: pack the scoreboard operator a Gatorade.

Three games.

Three clear reads.

One principle: process drives points — or prevents them — by design.

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Three edges for December 13 — an EPL total built on control, a service-academy spread rooted in efficiency, and an NBA favorite with separation baked in.

⚽ Under 3.5 Goals (–135) — Wolves at Arsenal

Arsenal’s identity is clean sheets: 9 goals allowed in 15 matches. Wolves’ identity is… less defined (–25 goal differential, bottom of the table). With a patched back line, Arteta’s likely to lean possession as defense — do the job, don’t invite chaos.

Our model prices Under 3.5 at ~62% (about an 8% edge vs market). This doesn’t need fireworks — it needs control. Think museum tour: lots of looking, no touching. 2–0 or 3–0 covers the script.

🏈 Navy -6.5 (–105) - Army at Navy

This isn’t your granddad’s option offense. Navy is averaging 32.5 PPG, leads the nation in rushing (298.4 YPG), and QB Blake Horvath’s 10.7 YPA freezes safeties who dare peek.

Army can’t chase (last in passing yards) and struggles to get off the field, while Navy converts nearly 50% on third down. Under the key number of 7, this shifts from rock fight to separation. Call it 31–17. Anchors away.

🏀 Thunder -9 (–110) — Spurs vs Thunder (Las Vegas)

OKC has turned the season into a woodchipper: 24–1, +17.5 average margin, #1 defense, and a recent 49-point demolition just to stay warm.

Re-inserting Wembanyama creates short-term spacing and tempo friction, and OKC’s length wins the turnover math early (Q1 Net Rating +20.6). Neutral floor, one-and-done stage, no cruise control. Lay it.

Three edges for December 12 — Real Sociedad ML, Pistons -7, and Timberwolves +3.5 — driven by underlying shot quality, defensive intent, and market inflation.

⚽ Real Sociedad (–130) — Girona FC at Real Sociedad

Sociedad’s record is lying to you like a “lightly used” couch on Craigslist. The underlying profile is strong:

• 186 shots for (top-5 range)

• 154 shots allowed

• Clean territorial control

Girona’s numbers tell the opposite story:

• 245 opponent shots allowed

• 29 goals conceded

• Injuries + “everything’s fine” chaos

That’s not a defense — it’s a suggestion.

At home in San Sebastián, Sociedad should be the adult in the room, controlling tempo and territory. We buy process, not vibes.

🏀 Detroit Pistons -7 (–110) — Hawks at Pistons

Detroit’s defense is a problem on purpose (≈111.9 DRtg), and they’re 19–5 because they turn games into homework.

Atlanta arrives without Trae Young, and Porziņģis likely out (illness), stripping the offense of its steering wheel and its spare tire. This is the third meeting in under a month, and Detroit already owns two wins in the series.

If the Hawks keep this close, it’ll be because the rims send a handwritten apology. Pistons grind, separate, and cover.

🏀 Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (–110) — at Warriors

Yes, Steph is expected back — and yes, the market charged a “Steph headline” fee. But the Warriors are still short-handed:

• Draymond OUT

• Horford likely OUT

• First-game-back legs often run on Wi-Fi

Minnesota can win the possession war with size and boards (Gobert / Randle / Reid), dragging this into a half-court mud fight where +3.5 shines.

Note:

• If Edwards IN → we love it

• If Edwards OUT → still playable, just less spicy

Either way, the number is doing the work.

Three games. Three edges.

One principle: buy structure, sell headlines.

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Three edges define December 11 — Aston Villa ML, Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 receiving yards, and Celtics -7.5 — each built on structural mismatches, target funnels, and depth advantages.

⚽ Aston Villa ML (–150) — vs Basel

Villa’s profile screams professional European road win:

• High pass accuracy

• Sustained possession

• Disciplined pressing

• A back line that travels

Basel’s “fortress” has been built on beating mid-table opposition; when they face organized defensive blocks, the leaks show. Basel likely needs to chase points to stay alive — textbook fuel for Villa’s transition efficiency.

Think Swiss cheese defense… but with extra holes and fewer crackers.

Villa handle business.

🏈 Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (–110)

Short week = simpler scripts and faster throws.

With Drake London out/limited, Atlanta’s target tree naturally funnels toward:

• RBs

• TEs

• Flats + option routes

Tampa’s zone concedes RB receiving and is bottom-tier in defending backs in space. Add negative game script + blitz avoidance = 6–8 looks for Bijan with serious YAC upside.

We’re not betting hero balls; we’re betting screens with receipts.

Profitable — like couponing at a steakhouse.

🏀 Celtics -7.5 — at Bucks

The line still pays a name-brand tax to Milwaukee.

The truth:

• Their star power is muted

• The rotation thins instantly

• Boston owns the turnover edge

• Boston owns the rebounding edge

• Boston owns the arc

Once the Bucks’ pull-up diet goes cold, the game snowballs. Boston’s depth turns third quarters into moving walkways — you move, they move faster.

Wisconsin translation: Celtics by a dairy aisle.

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Three edges for December 10 — Man City Over 1.5 team total, PSG moneyline, and BTTS Yes in Arsenal–Brugge — all built on defensive absences, elite attacking repetition, and chaotic match environments.

⚽ Manchester City Team Total Over 1.5 (–125) — at Real Madrid

Bernabéu magic can’t tape ankles. Madrid’s back line is stretched thin:

• A midfielder at right-back

• A rookie CB staring down Haaland

• A makeshift buildup under City’s press

That’s like defending a freight train with traffic cones.

City’s chance volume is repeatable, sustainable, and whistle-friendly — one clumsy box tackle and you’re halfway to two goals already.

This is the most repeatable edge on the entire board.

⚽ Paris Saint-Germain (–147) — at Athletic Club

Athletic show up with a center-back shortage, a wet pitch, and a high-pressure environment that favors PSG’s pace, not their structure. It’s a slip-n-slide stress test against the fastest front line in Europe. Ref Siebert hands out cards like tapas, punishing late, desperate defending and gifting PSG dangerous restarts.

This profiles as PSG cardio, not a cage fight.

When the dam’s missing bricks, you don’t bet on the sandbags — you bet on the flood.

⚽ Both Teams to Score: YES (–117) — Arsenal at Club Brugge

Arsenal arrive without their defensive spine:

• Saliba OUT

• Gabriel OUT

• Declan Rice OUT

Brugge counter with:

• A third-string goalkeeper

• A new-manager bounce

• Rain + wind turning routine saves into spills

Set pieces and transition lanes will be open like a late-night kebab shop. Even if Arsenal control phases, they leak one. Even if Brugge wobble defensively, they concede one.

BTTS here isn’t brave — it’s basic arithmetic.

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Two UCL edges for December 9 — Inter Milan ML and Barcelona -2.5 — both built on venue dominance, injury leverage, and seeding incentives.

⚽ Inter Milan ML (+115) — vs Liverpool

Salah not traveling removes Liverpool’s panic button — the late-game bailout valve that rescues stale possession. Without him, Liverpool lose:

• their vertical threat

• their tight-game shot equity

• their “break glass” scoring mode

Inter haven’t lost a UCL home match since 2022 (18 straight) and Lautaro has turned San Siro into a personal highlight reel.

The price still bakes in a Liverpool brand tax. We’re buying the fortress, not the crest. Inter to win outright.

⚽ FC Barcelona -2.5 (–110) — vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Frankfurt just conceded six at Leipzig and now walk into a stadium where Barcelona’s chance creation inflates like a bouncy castle.

Under the new Swiss-model table, margin matters for seeding, so at 2–0 Barcelona won’t start practicing rondos — they’ll keep pressing.

This isn’t drizzle — it’s a flood script:

• High volume

• Possession tilt

• Frankfurt defensive collapse mode

Projection makes 3–0 / 4–1 / 5–1 all live scores.

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Three sharp edges for December 8 — Pacers -3.5, Chargers +2.5, and Spurs -9.5 — built on lineup gaps, trench collapses, and extreme roster volatility.🏀 Pacers -3.5 (–110) — Kings at PacersSacramento arrives missing the spine of their offense (Sabonis) and LaVine–Westbrook chemistry experiment still stuck in "trial-and-error… mostly error.”Indiana, meanwhile, has stabilized around Siakam + Mathurin and quietly won 3 of its last 5. The Pacers own:• the rebounding edge• the turnover edge• the home-court edgeBasically every edge except “backcourt chaos,” which the Kings own in excess — but chaos is traveling on a road back-to-back with jet lag.Projection: Pacers control the final six minutes and win by two possessions.🏈 Chargers +2.5 (–110) — Eagles at ChargersPhilly without Lane Johnson and Jalen Carter is a sports car without wheels — technically still a car, but mostly decorative. Everyone focused on Herbert’s left-hand fracture; the real story is the Eagles’ trenches collapsing like a folding chair at a family barbecue.Sharps hit LAC the moment +3 appeared, and the handle split looks like “pros vs. Joes” theater. Chargers’ pass rush should have Hurts playing Whac-A-Mole all night.We take the points — and wouldn’t blink if LAC wins outright.🏀 Spurs -9.5 (–110) — Spurs at PelicansDon’t let the Wemby OUT tag scare you — Spurs are 7–3 without him, and Fox turns this offense into a freeway with no speed limit.New Orleans is missing:• Zion• Murray• Poole• DickinsonAt this point they’re one sprained ankle away from pulling fans out of section 113 for minutes.They’re also 1–9 ATS as a home dog, which is less a trend and more a cry for help.Spurs score efficiently.Pelicans defend like they’re being charged per contest.Double-digit separation is very live.Follow us for more:

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