On this episode of The Art of Boring, Global Credit Portfolio Manager Brian Carney unpacks what he believes are some of the most pressing issues in credit markets today. He explores whether recent private market bankruptcies signal deeper systemic concerns, how to position for sovereign bond issuer risk in a sticky inflation world, and the impact of the AI-driven debt wave on credit spreads. He also discusses regulatory rollbacks in the lending markets, credit risk premium mispricings, and concrete portfolio actions for late cycle markets.

Key Highlights

• Recent private market bankruptcies may signal broader, systemic credit market weakness rather than isolated events, with deteriorating lending standards and rising delinquencies warranting caution.
• Growing sovereign debt and persistent inflation are challenging the traditional "safe haven" status of U.S. Treasuries, prompting a preference for shorter duration and higher-quality credit exposure.
• The surge in AI-driven capital expenditures is fueling a wave of debt issuance by large tech companies, likely putting upward pressure on credit spreads and shifting market dynamics in favour of lenders over time.
• Regulatory rollbacks in the U.S. are reducing transparency and increasing risk-taking, especially in unregulated and private markets, raising concerns about financial stability and corporate behaviour.
• Credit risk premiums remain compressed, with investors often inadequately compensated for lower-quality credit risk; opportunities are limited, and selectivity is critical.
• Defensive positioning—focusing on capital preservation, short duration, and high-quality issuers—remains key, with readiness to deploy capital quickly when market dislocations create attractive opportunities.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Brian Carney, CFA, Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social:

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In this episode, portfolio manager Peter Lampert discusses the evolving landscape of international equities, with a special focus on the portfolio's exposure to AI enablers—companies powering the semiconductor supply chain, from power supply units to memory makers. Lampert explains the importance of distinguishing between firms merely riding the AI investment wave and those whose competitive positions are fundamentally strengthening as a result. The conversation also explores attractive valuations outside the U.S., the growing role of Japanese companies amid governance reforms and IT modernization, and the need for careful risk management as AI adoption and global trends unfold. Lampert emphasizes a diversified, long-term approach—balancing AI-driven growth, sector-specific opportunities in Europe and Asia, and resilience against macro risks—to position the portfolio for sustainable value creation in a rapidly changing world.

Key highlights:

• How international equities are benefiting from AI infrastructure growth, focusing on companies enabling the semiconductor supply chain (e.g., power supply units, memory makers).

• The importance of distinguishing between firms temporarily boosted by AI demand and those with strengthening long-term competitive advantages.

• Attractive valuations and growth opportunities for AI enablers outside the U.S., particularly in Europe, Taiwan, and Korea.

• An examination of portfolio diversification, including exposure to Japanese companies amid governance reforms and IT modernization.

• Risk management in balancing AI exposure with other portfolio drivers and the need for resilience as adoption and global trends evolve.

• The ongoing debate around incumbent software companies' ability to adapt to AI, emphasizing a case-by-case, long-term approach.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA – Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Peter Lampert, CFA – Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

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Paul Moroz returns to share an update on our global equity strategy. We dig into what's changed since Paul resumed the lead portfolio manager role, how the team's collaboration has evolved, and why a more diversified and resilient portfolio is the result. Listen for Paul's take on why optionality and humility matter more than ever.

Key highlights:

• Enhanced team collaboration through structural changes leading to better cross-team idea generation

• Improved portfolio diversification with holdings expanding to over 70 securities: reduction of consumer staples and discretionary overweights, while adding strategic small positions that provide optionality for rapid capital allocation as markets shift

• Fundamental momentum alignment improved by reducing problem positions and increasing strong earnings momentum names, resulting in better down capture characteristics during market declines

• Strategic AI complex exposure built through diversified Asian infrastructure plays in memory, power, data centers, and chip fabrication, targeting high market share businesses with better risk-adjusted returns

• Comprehensive IT sector review underway to identify opportunities in potentially mispriced software companies

• Portfolio repositioning complete with approximately 19% turnover executed to create a more balanced, diversified portfolio aligned with the platform's investment philosophy: designed for resilience across market regimes

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA – Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Paul Moroz, CFA – Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, we sat down with our Director of Research, Vijay Viswanathan, and Institutional Portfolio Manager, Kevin Minas, to talk through their observations this past quarter. We talk macro, micro, and everything in between, touching on changing market dynamics, central bank policy, how the portfolios are doing in this environment, and, finally, how we're positioning ourselves as we move forward.

Key highlights:

• Three major macro themes dominated the quarter—trade policy tensions (though somewhat cooling), continued fiscal stimulus despite near-capacity economies, and AI-driven infrastructure growth
• Central banks are balancing growth concerns and inflation risks, with both the Fed and Bank of Canada beginning easing cycles in September
• Equity markets showed a strong "risk-on" tone, hitting record highs, with AI and commodities (especially gold and copper) driving much of the growth and market attention.
• Fixed income returns were strong, led by central bank easing and tighter credit spreads; portfolios favored short-duration bonds and gradually reduced risk as valuations rose.
• Asset Mix shifts include trimming U.S. and Canadian large cap equities after strong absolute returns, increasing exposure to emerging markets and global credit, and shifting from cash to fixed income for better yield and resilience.
• The team remains committed to core investment principles while adapting portfolios for changing market dynamics

Host:
Andrew Johnson, CFA - Institutional Portfolio Manager
Guests:
Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA - Institutional Portfolio Manager
Vijay Viswanathan, CFA, MBA - Director of Research, Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram -https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin breaks down the macro forces driving bond markets in 2025. From trade uncertainty to central bank policy shifts, Crista explains how these themes are shaping Canadian fixed income performance and where she sees opportunities ahead.

Key highlights:

• Trade policy uncertainty, fiscal stimulus, and tighter financial conditions have been key macroeconomic themes shaping global and Canadian bond markets, with U.S. trade actions and paused tariffs reducing some volatility but still weighing on Canadian growth and exports.
• Central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, have shifted from a wait-and-see approach to resuming rate cuts as growth slows and inflation pressures moderate, though questions about central bank independence and timing of policy moves remain.
• Canadian bond market performance has been driven by both falling interest rates—especially at the short end of the curve—and tightening credit spreads, with shorter maturities and lower-quality credits outperforming, while longer-dated bonds have lagged due to concerns about persistent inflation.
• The current strategy emphasizes a steepening yield curve, overweight positions in shorter-dated, higher-quality corporate bonds, and caution on longer maturities, reflecting expectations for continued central bank easing and ongoing risks from inflation and credit fundamentals.
• Despite recent headlines about rising bond-equity correlations and market risks, fixed income remains a valuable portfolio diversifier, offering higher yields than in recent years and providing a cushion against volatility and modest rate increases.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA– Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Christa Caughlin, CFA– Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

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Equity analyst Ian Turnbull shares insights from his latest trip to Japan, highlighting the unique aspects of Japanese society and corporate culture. From surplus and stakeholder capitalism to why you might get more than you pay for at a 7-Eleven convenience store, Ian reflects on the value of on-the-ground research, the trade-offs involved in capital allocation decisions, and pockets of real opportunity within Japan's evolving business landscape.

Key Takeaways

• On-the-ground research in Japan reveals unique cultural and corporate dynamics that are difficult to capture from afar; direct engagement with people and companies provides deeper context for investment decisions.
• Japanese corporate culture emphasizes stakeholder capitalism, with surplus value often distributed to customers, employees, suppliers, and society—sometimes at the expense of shareholder returns; this results in high-quality service, strong employee loyalty, and long-term relationships.
• Balance sheets in Japan tend to be conservative, offering downside protection but limiting upside potential; recent years have seen gradual shifts toward greater efficiency and shareholder focus, though progress is uneven and culturally nuanced.
• Digitalization and technology adoption present significant opportunities, as Japan faces labor shortages and lags in some areas of tech implementation; companies enabling digital transformation may be well-positioned for growth.
• Corporate transformation is occurring slowly, with some firms like Hitachi making deliberate, long-term changes to focus on higher-return areas and divest less profitable segments; this reflects a broader trend of incremental governance and capital allocation improvements.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA– Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Ian Turnbull, CFA– Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, U.S. Equity Portfolio Manager Grayson Witcher explores the evolving intersection of government policy, innovation, and capital expenditure (CapEx) in U.S. markets. The discussion unpacks how public spending and strategic government stakes—especially in sectors like semiconductors and defense—are reshaping the investment landscape. Grayson reflects on the unique blend of complacency and optimism in today's markets, the uncertain returns on massive AI-driven CapEx, and the importance of management quality and adaptability in navigating this new era.

Key highlights:

• U.S. markets are experiencing a rare surge in capital spending, driven by AI, reshoring, defense, and infrastructure—marking a departure from decades of just-in-time, low-investment environments.

• The U.S. government's direct stakes in companies like Intel signal a move toward more strategic, state-influenced capitalism, reminiscent of crisis or wartime interventions but now focused on critical industries.

• Despite significant investment, most companies have yet to realize meaningful returns from generative AI. The market's optimism may be outpacing actual productivity gains, raising questions about long-term ROI.

• The team seeks diversified exposure to transformative themes (e.g., AI, automation) without betting on single winners, emphasizing companies with adaptable management and clear execution plans.

• Rising CapEx, persistent inflation drivers, and government intervention create both risks and opportunities. The focus remains on businesses resilient to macro shifts and capable of thriving across scenarios.

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA– Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Grayson Witcher, CFA, AB – Portfolio Manager

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn -

https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the global credit opportunities strategy, explores the current credit market environment characterized by tight spreads and low defaults despite global uncertainties. He discusses the concept of "convergence and complacency"—where large pools of capital chase lower-quality borrowers while markets overlook serious warning signs including political pressure on central banks and hidden leverage. The conversation covers key crisis indicators, the weakening of credit covenants over the past decade, and the risks associated with private credit. He outlines the portfolio's defensive positioning with high-quality, short-duration securities and highlights Saturn Oil and Gas as an example of selective opportunities that still favor lenders. He concludes with insights on how AI is enhancing the investment process while emphasizing that technology cannot replace the importance of human relationships in credit analysis.

Key Takeaways:

• How the Global Credit team approaches today's tight spread environment by focusing on capital preservation rather than reaching for yield, positioning for future market dislocations when opportunities will emerge.

• The key early warning indicators to monitor for potential credit market stress, including hedge fund liquidations, counterparty credit reductions, and central bank intervention patterns.

• The reality behind private credit's popularity: —understanding whether the additional ~200 basis points over public high yield adequately compensates for illiquidity, reduced transparency, and higher fees.

• The critical importance of credit covenant analysis in the investment process, and how the shift toward borrower-friendly terms over the past decade has reduced lender protections.

• The rationale behind the Saturn Oil and Gas investment, highlighting how disciplined management, forced deleveraging through quarterly bond buybacks, and attractive spreads create value in a challenging market.

• How AI technology is being integrated to enhance the investment process through improved issuer triage and covenant comparison, while maintaining the essential human relationships that drive successful credit investing.

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA ­­- Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Brian Carney, CIM – Portfolio Manager

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn -

https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/