Europe butadiene (BD) editor Melissa Hurley discusses the current market conditions and challenges facing the global market with editors Ai Teng Lim, Stephanie Cervantes and BD analyst Gawaine Preston.

• BD Asia prices hit two-year lows in November due to heavy deep-sea imports from Europe, US, and South America.
• NE Asia received 250,000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes in first three quarters of 2025 (up 100,000 tonnes versus 2024).
• Local production in China impacted by maintenance; BR futures may influence BD pricing sentiment
• European export prices to Asia dropped sharply, indications below naphtha cost
• January-July 2025 European BD exports to Asia four times larger than 2024 volumes
• Local European demand underperforming; suppliers extracting less BD
• Crude C4 (CC4) length persists despite low cracker rates
• Longer term CC4 availability in Europe diminished due to cracker closures
• Domestic US market steady to long; tire imports from Asia hurt US tire manufacturing.
• US BD production stable; supply long; prices near breakeven resulting in suppliers considering or undergoing co-cracking activities
• Minor Q1 turnaround in 2026 running concurrently alongside major cracker turnaround could keep supply and demand fundamentals balanced

Additional reporting from Industry Analysts Elaine Zhang and Ann Sun.

As the year draws to a close, weak underlying demand persists in the European acetone, phenol and derivatives chain in a fragile macro climate, compounded by year-end inventory and working capital considerations.

Other headwinds include global overcapacity led by Asia and profitability struggles in Europe in the face of high costs which have led to rationalisation plans in Europe in the chain and broader industry.

Heidi Finch senior editor covering the European BPA and epoxy resins markets is joined by: Jane Gibson covering the acetone and phenol markets, Mat Jolin-Beech covering MMA, Sam Lovatt covering PC and VIP guest Michele Bossi - analyst for the chain.

Chemical markets across Asia are seeing more trade flows from low cost producers such as China and the US as competition grows amid rising overcapacity.

- Asia downstream markets not expected to recover until 2027/8

- Low cost producers such as US, China, competing for market share

- US tariffs, sanctions disrupting regional chemical markets

- Moves in China, South Korea, Japan to close uncompetitive plants may help rebalance markets

- China producers are exporting to other regions, such as Latin America

- New China acetic acid plants add 10% to capacity in 2025

- Downstream demand growth not keeping pace

- Since the podcast was recorded on 3 November, a major plant has shut, driving up demand for imports into India, potentially widening arbitrage for Atlantic spot trades

- In China, retirement of older acetic acid plants unlikely to offset capacity addition in near future