Épisodes

  • Friday, November 14, 2025
    Nov 14 2025

    Friday, November 14, 2025

    Here’s what moved overnight, and what it means for your capital.

    • WTI crude: $59.6–$60 (+1.5% intraday)
    • Brent: $63.9–$64 (+1.4% intraday)
    • Henry Hub gas: ≈ $4.62/MMBtu (-0.6% intraday; still elevated vs recent months)

    The headlines are pushing a “glut” narrative. The IEA flags a larger 2026 surplus as supply growth outpaces demand. In the U.S., the latest EIA data shows a 6.4 million-barrel crude build (week ending Nov 7) even as refinery runs and utilization climbed. Gasoline and distillates drew modestly, subtle signs of product pull despite the crude build. Meanwhile, sanctions and shipping frictions are stranding portions of Russian flows, adding underpriced tail risk.

    What the herd is missing:

    • Demand is rotating, not disappearing. Refinery utilization and product draws matter more than doom headlines.
    • Gas setup is quietly constructive. Winter/LNG pull with 2026 guideposts near $4 supports upstream cash flows.
    • “Excess supply” at $60 WTI breeds mispricings in acreage and working interests. Sophisticated capital positions before the story flips.

    The read: prices stabilized off the lows; the narrative screams oversupply, but the micro tells (product draws, utilization, LNG gravity) say optionality is mispriced at the wellhead.

    The move: if you’re aiming for monthly cash flow and 2025 tax elimination, don’t wait for $70 oil and bullish op-eds. Buy contradictions while they’re uncomfortable. Visit JoinIronHorse.com.

    That’s your brief for Friday, November 14th. Let’s keep building.

    Keywords: oil and gas investing, tax deductions, WTI crude, Brent crude, natural gas, working interests, monthly cash flow, OPEC surplus, IEA demand forecast, LNG exports, Permian Basin, Iron Horse Energy Fund, geopolitical risk, energy investing


    © 2025 Iron Horse Energy Fund

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    3 min
  • Thursday, November 13th, 2025
    Nov 13 2025

    This is The Iron Horse Daily Brief for Thursday, November 13, 2025.

    Here's what moved overnight, and what it means for your capital.

    WTI crude fell to $58.39 per barrel, down 4.34 percent. Brent crude dropped to $62.64 per barrel, down 3.87 percent. Natural gas held at $4.55 per MMBtu, down slightly but still elevated year-over-year.

    The sell-off intensified after OPEC reversed its third-quarter forecast. The group now estimates a 500,000 barrel per day surplus, a complete reversal from its prior 400,000 barrel per day deficit forecast. U.S. crude production hit a record 13.651 million barrels per day. OPEC+ announced it will pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026.

    Today, the market is watching two key data releases: the Consumer Price Index and EIA crude oil inventory data. The CPI will provide insight into inflation trends that could impact Federal Reserve policy. EIA inventories are forecast to rise by 1 million barrels, following last week's 5.2 million barrel build.

    The headlines are screaming oversupply. OPEC sees a surplus. U.S. production is at record highs. The dollar is strong, pressuring commodity prices.

    But here's what the herd is missing.

    The IEA just reversed its peak oil demand thesis. In its World Energy Outlook published this week, the agency now projects global oil and gas demand will continue rising through 2050. That's a complete reversal from its previous forecast of peak demand before the end of this decade.

    China is still fast-tracking 169 million barrels of new strategic storage capacity by 2026. They're stockpiling at cycle lows, not dumping demand.

    On natural gas, LNG exports are averaging 17.8 billion cubic feet per day in November, near record levels. New LNG projects are adding 300 billion cubic meters of annual export capacity by 2030, a 50 percent increase. The EIA expects natural gas to average $4.00 per MMBtu in 2026, up 16 percent year-over-year.

    Geopolitically, U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft are creating long-term supply risks. Lukoil declared force majeure on shipments from Iraq. The market is pricing in oversupply today, but geopolitical risk is building beneath the surface.

    The read: WTI at $58.39. Brent at $62.64. OPEC reversed its forecast to a 500,000 barrel per day surplus. U.S. production hit a record 13.651 million barrels per day. But the IEA just reversed its peak demand thesis, now projecting demand rising through 2050. China is adding 169 million barrels of storage capacity and stockpiling at these prices. Natural gas LNG exports are hitting record levels, with 300 billion cubic meters of new capacity coming online by 2030. The EIA expects natural gas prices up 16 percent in 2026.

    The herd sees $58 WTI and panics. Sophisticated investors see China building reserves at cycle lows, the IEA reversing its demand outlook, and structural natural gas demand accelerating.

    The move: Most investors wait for confirmation. They want $70 oil and bullish headlines before they feel safe. But by the time the market breaks out, entry prices are higher, acreage is more expensive, and the asymmetric opportunity is gone.

    If you're positioning for 2025 tax elimination and monthly cash flow, this is your window. Visit JoinIronHorse.com.

    That's your brief for Thursday, November 13th. Let's keep building.

    KEYWORDS: oil and gas investing, tax deductions, WTI crude, Brent crude, natural gas, working interests, monthly cash flow, OPEC surplus, IEA demand forecast, China strategic reserves, LNG exports, Permian Basin, Iron Horse Energy Fund, geopolitical risk, energy investing

    © 2025 Iron Horse Energy Fund

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    5 min
  • Wellhead Wednesday - November 12th, 2025
    Nov 12 2025

    The oil and gas industry is massive and to keep it organized, we break it into three major sectors: upstream, midstream, and downstream.

    Upstream – This is the exploration and production stage. It's all about finding hydrocarbons like oil and gas, drilling wells, and getting hydrocarbons out of the ground.

    Midstream – This is the transportation and storage stage. Think pipelines, rail, and storage facilities — everything that moves oil from the wellhead to the refinery.

    Downstream – This is the refining and distribution stage. It's where crude becomes gasoline, jet fuel, and the products needed to make things like plastics and rubber — that eventually ends up in your car, home, or business.

    So upstream drills it, midstream moves it, and downstream transforms it.

    Each segment has a different risk-reward profile and cash flow behavior. Let's dive a little deeper into it.

    Upstream: Since we are actually exploring and drilling for oil, it carries more operational and commodity price risk than other segments. You're dealing with geology, decline curves, and the realities of the field. But here's the tradeoff: monthly cash flow, significant tax deductions (which is why working interests are sought out by high income earners), and a direct stake in real production. Upstream is the only part of the chain that directly participates in commodity upside. When oil prices rise, so do the checks. Investors here also capture powerful tax advantages — deductions for drilling costs and ongoing depletion allowances that no other sector can touch. And perhaps most importantly, upstream ownership gives you a direct economic interest in real production. You're not betting on a stock price, you're participating in a barrel.

    Midstream is more stable. Midstream companies typically operate under long-term, fee-based contracts, which smooth out cash flow and reduce sensitivity to oil price volatility. For investors, midstream behaves a lot like a triple-net lease in commercial real estate — steady rent checks, lower risk, and yield that's driven more by volume than by commodity price. It's not flashy, but it's durable. If you're seeking stability and predictable yield, midstream is the toll road of energy.

    Downstream, where the raw product becomes refined value. This includes refining, petrochemical processing, and retail distribution — the world of companies like Valero, Marathon, and Exxon's refining divisions. Downstream margins depend heavily on refining spreads — the difference between crude input costs and finished product prices. When that spread widens, refiners make money; when it tightens, margins vanish. It's also tied closely to economic cycles — fuel demand rises and falls with consumer behavior, travel, and industrial output. Downstream can deliver strong profits during demand booms, but it's the most exposed to macro volatility and least insulated by contractual cash flow.

    Here's a quick analogy: Imagine a steak dinner and think of oil and gas like the beef business.

    Upstream is raising and harvesting the cow — that's exploration and production.

    Midstream is trucking the beef from the ranch to the butcher — this is pipelines and infrastructure.

    Downstream is the butcher and steakhouse — refining and selling the final product.

    We don't run the steakhouse. We're not hauling trucks. We own a working interest in the herd — and at Iron Horse, we get paid every month when that beef hits the market.

    Thanks for tuning in to The Iron Horse Daily Brief, where smart capital meets real opportunity. We're building more than portfolios, so come join us at JoinIronHorse.com.


    KEYWORDS: upstream oil and gas, midstream energy, downstream refining, working interests, tax deductions, monthly cash flow, exploration and production, energy investing, oil and gas sectors, Iron Horse Energy Fund, Wellhead Wednesday


    © 2025 Iron Horse Energy Fund

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    4 min
  • Friday, October 31st, 2025
    Oct 31 2025

    The Oversupply Myth: Why Smart Money Ignores Headlines and Follows Production Economics

    What's Happening:

    WTI crude closed at $60.57/barrel yesterday—third straight monthly decline. Natural gas is at $4.06/MMBtu, up 52% year-over-year. And the Permian Basin rig count has fallen to 250 active rigs, down 50 rigs since January (lowest since October 2021).

    The market is screaming "oversupply." The IEA is forecasting a 4 million barrel per day surplus in 2026. OPEC+ is adding 137,000 bpd in December. Headlines are bearish.

    But here's what the market is missing.

    The Contrarian Truth:

    The herd sees oversupply. Smart money sees falling rig counts and production growth slowing 25%.

    • Permian rig count: Down 50 rigs year-to-date (ten straight weeks of declines)
    • Permian production growth: Slowing 25% (250K-300K bpd in 2025 vs. 380K bpd in 2024)
    • US crude stocks: Fell 6.86 million barrels this week (despite "oversupply")
    • Natural gas: Up 52% YoY driven by structural LNG export demand to Europe and Asia

    You can't produce oil without rigs. Lower rig counts today mean tighter supply tomorrow.

    Tier-One Operators Are Crushing It:

    While smaller operators cut rigs and trim budgets, tier-one operators are scaling up and dominating market share.

    Enterprise Products just reported record natural gas processing in the Permian—8.1 billion cubic feet per day, up 6% year-over-year. They commissioned two new processing facilities in July and are hitting operational records across the board.

    The Bottom Line:

    The market is pricing in oversupply based on IEA forecasts and OPEC+ production increases. But those forecasts don't account for:

    • Rig count declines (down 50 rigs YTD in the Permian)
    • Slowing production growth (down 25% YoY)
    • US shale maturation (the easy oil has been drilled)

    What's left requires more capital, better operators, and proven reserves. And that's exactly where Iron Horse Energy Fund 1 is positioned.

    The Move:

    You can wait for WTI to hit $70 and pay a premium. Or you can deploy capital now, while prices are soft, and lock in proven reserves with tier-one operators who are hitting records while everyone else is cutting rigs.

    Iron Horse Energy Fund 1 closes November 30th—33 days from today.

    👉 JoinIronHorse.com

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    5 min
  • Monday, October 27th, 2025
    Oct 27 2025

    Good morning. This is The Iron Horse Daily Brief for Monday, October 27th, 2025. Today, we're dissecting the market's latest theatrics. The headlines are screaming one thing, but the data—the *real* data—is telling a completely different story. And if you're still listening to the noise, you're missing the opportunity where true wealth is built. **The Number:** Let's get straight to the numbers that actually matter. WTI crude is trading around $61.75 per barrel, up slightly today, and Brent crude is at $66.07. The media is touting optimism from a potential US-China trade deal and lingering supply concerns from Russia sanctions. But here's what Wall Street won't tell you: while crude prices have pulled back this year, the fundamentals have never been stronger. Natural gas is holding at $3.35 per MMBtu, and U.S. energy firms just added two rigs this week, bringing the total to 550. Operators aren't panicking. They're positioning. And if you're paying attention, you should be too. **The Truth:** Here's the real story. While the herd obsesses over daily price swings, the smart money is watching production strength and long-term demand. U.S. crude oil production hit a record high of over 13.6 million barrels per day in July, and the EIA forecasts we'll average 13.5 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026. The Permian Basin alone is driving massive growth. This isn't a market in decline. This is American energy dominance in action. Yes, OPEC+ is increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in October and November, unwinding previous cuts. The talking heads call this bearish. But here's what they're missing: U.S. operators are drilling proven reserves, generating cash flow at $60 crude, and they're not chasing headlines. They're profitable. They're disciplined. And they're building wealth for investors who understand the long game. The International Energy Agency is forecasting a potential supply surplus in 2026. You know what that means? Stability. Predictability. And for investors in working interests with tier-one operators like EOG and Continental, it means consistent monthly cash flow regardless of whether crude is at $61 or $71. The short-term noise about trade deals and sanctions? That's for retail investors who trade on emotion. Smart money invests in fundamentals. **The Move:** So here's your choice. Are you going to get caught in the daily drama, or are you going to position yourself where real wealth is built? Iron Horse Energy Fund 1 isn't playing the headline game. We're investing in the proven strength of domestic oil and gas, leveraging the tax code for 80 to 85 percent first-year deductions, and generating consistent monthly cash flow from operators who've drilled thousands of successful wells. You're not speculating on the next geopolitical crisis. You're investing in an asset class that thrives on foundational demand, strategic tax advantages, and American energy independence. The window to secure your position in Iron Horse Energy Fund 1 closes November 30th. That's 37 days from today. If you're ready to stop riding the emotional rollercoaster of the daily news cycle and start building real, tax-advantaged wealth, visit JoinIronHorse.com. That's your brief for Monday. Let's keep building.

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    4 min
  • Friday, October 24th, 2025
    Oct 24 2025

    Good morning. This is The Iron Horse Daily Brief for Friday, October 24th, 2025. This week Wall Street had a panic attack, and as always, Courtney Moeller pulled this intelligence this morning from OilPrice.com to show you exactly why sophisticated investors don't flinch when the herd stampedes. **The Number:** WTI crude is trading at $61.53 per barrel, down slightly today but still on track for a 7 percent weekly gain. Brent crude is at $65.73, also down marginally but up 7 percent for the week. Natural gas fell to $3.29 per MMBtu, down 1.6 percent. Here's what happened: on Thursday, President Trump imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia's two largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil. These companies account for over 5 percent of global oil output. Oil spiked over 5 percent in a single session. CNBC called it a supply shock. Retail investors chased the rally. And institutional money sat back and watched the amateurs panic-buy. Because here's the reality check no one's talking about: despite this week's rally, crude oil prices are still down more than 10 percent year-to-date. This wasn't a supply crisis. This was a headline crisis. And if you're making investment decisions based on what Trump tweets about Putin, you've already lost. **The Truth:** Here's what Wall Street won't tell you: this rally is built on fear, not fundamentals. Trump sanctions Russia, oil spikes 5 percent, and suddenly everyone's acting like we're headed for $80 crude. But OPEC just signaled they'll add 137,000 barrels per day starting in November if shortages arise. China paused Russian crude purchases. Indian refiners are cutting imports. The market is rebalancing in real time, and the smart money knows it. Meanwhile, the U.S. rig count remains at 548—unchanged for oil rigs, up just one for gas rigs. Operators didn't add a single oil rig this week. Not one. They're not buying the hype. They're profitable at $61, and they're not drilling until they see sustained demand—not geopolitical theater. EOG and Continental aren't gambling on sanctions. They're drilling proven reserves in the Permian Basin, generating cash flow, and waiting for the noise to clear. And here's the part that separates smart money from scared money: natural gas inventories are 4.5 percent above the five-year average, and U.S. LNG exports are projected to average 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, rising to 16 in 2026. Demand from LNG export plants just hit a new monthly high. The story here isn't about sanctions. It's about infrastructure, export capacity, and long-term demand from China and the EU as they reduce reliance on Russian gas. That's a structural trend. That's where wealth is built. **The Move:** For accredited investors, this volatility is noise. While retail investors chase headlines and Wall Street freaks out over geopolitical theater, Iron Horse Energy Fund 1 is doing what it's always done: partnering with tier-one operators on proven production in the Permian Basin, locking in 80 to 85 percent first-year tax deductions that offset your W-2 income, and generating monthly cash flow regardless of whether WTI is at $61 or $71. You're not betting on whether Trump sanctions Russia or whether OPEC opens the taps. You're investing in proven reserves with operators who've drilled thousands of successful wells. You're using the tax code the way Congress designed it—to reward domestic energy production. And you're keeping more of your money out of the IRS's hands. Iron Horse Energy Fund 1 closes November 30th. That's 38 days from today. If you're serious about offsetting your 2025 income, diversifying into an asset class that rewards action, and refusing to overpay the IRS while everyone else panics over headlines, visit JoinIronHorse.com. That's your brief for Friday. Let's keep building.

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    5 min
  • Wednesday, October 22nd, 2025
    Oct 22 2025

    Good morning. This is The Iron Horse Daily Brief for Wednesday, October 22nd, 2025. Today's market is sending contradictory signals, and as always, Courtney Moeller pulled this intelligence this morning from OilPrice.com to get it to you before anyone else—because in a market this confused, clarity is everything. **The Number:** WTI crude is trading at $57.82 per barrel, up half a percent. Brent is at $62.29, up over 1.5 percent. Natural gas climbed 1.5 percent to $3.53 per MMBtu. But here's where it gets interesting: the American Petroleum Institute just reported that crude oil and gasoline inventories fell unexpectedly last week—the first decline in four weeks. At the same time, the U.S. Energy Department announced it's buying 1 million barrels to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Both of these are bullish signals that should be pushing prices higher. Yet Citi just made a public case for $50 oil, and Brent has been flirting with $60 all week as oversupply fears deepen. So which is it? Are we headed for tighter supply or a glut? **The Truth:** Here's what the data actually shows: Halliburton just topped Q3 earnings estimates on solid North American demand. SLB did the same last week. These are the two largest oilfield services companies in the world, and they're both reporting strong profitability from North American drilling. That tells you operators are being selective, not desperate. They're drilling where the economics work, and they're making money doing it. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency is warning of a potential 4 million barrel per day surplus in 2026 as OPEC+ unwinds production cuts. Baker Hughes reported that U.S. gas rigs just hit their highest level since August, but the total rig count is still stalled at 548. Translation? The market is caught between short-term supply tightness and long-term oversupply fears. And here's the kicker: American drivers are now paying $2.97 per gallon for gasoline—near pandemic-era lows. That's not a sign of scarcity. That's a sign of oversupply working its way through the system. **The Move:** For accredited investors, this is exactly why oil and gas working interests are the play. You're not gambling on whether Citi or the IEA is right about future prices. You're investing in proven production with tier-one operators like EOG and Continental in the Permian Basin. You're locking in 80 to 85 percent first-year tax deductions that offset your W-2 income, and you're generating monthly cash flow regardless of whether WTI is at $50 or $70. Iron Horse Energy Fund 1 is built for this exact moment: a market of conflicting narratives, disciplined operators, and a tax code that rewards action. The fund closes November 30th. That's 40 days from today. If you're serious about diversifying your portfolio, offsetting your 2025 income, and keeping more of your money out of the IRS's hands, visit JoinIronHorse.com. That's your brief for Wednesday. Let's keep building.

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    4 min
  • Monday, October 20th, 2025
    Oct 20 2025

    Good morning. This is The Iron Horse Daily Brief for Monday, October 20th, 2025. We're kicking off the week with a market that can't decide if it's headed to $50 or a supply crunch. As always, Courtney Moeller pulled this intelligence this morning from OilPrice.com to get it to you before anyone else—because clarity is currency in this market. **The Number:** WTI crude is trading at $57.54 per barrel, up slightly. Brent is at $61.29, and natural gas jumped over 2% to $3.008 per MMBtu. But here's where it gets interesting: Citi just made a public case for $50 oil, while Saudi Aramco warned that chronic underinvestment could trigger a future supply crunch. Two completely opposite narratives. One market. Only the informed will profit. **The Truth:** Here's what the data actually shows: U.S. oil rig counts are stalled, yet output just broke a new record. That's not a contradiction—it's efficiency. Operators aren't chasing every price tick; they're maximizing returns from existing wells. Meanwhile, geopolitical risk premiums have evaporated from oil pricing, which means the market is ignoring tail risks. That's dangerous. And here's the kicker: SLB—one of the world's largest oilfield services companies—just exceeded profit expectations on strong North American demand. Translation? The drilling that is happening is highly profitable, and operators are being selective, not desperate. **The Move:** For accredited investors, this is exactly why oil and gas working interests are the play. You're not gambling on whether Citi or Saudi Aramco is right. You're investing in proven production, locking in 80 to 85 percent first-year tax deductions, and generating monthly cash flow regardless of short-term price swings. Iron Horse Energy Fund 1 is built for this moment: a market of conflicting narratives, disciplined operators, and a tax code that rewards action. The fund closes November 30th—that's 42 days from today. If you're serious about diversifying your portfolio and keeping more of your money out of the IRS's hands, visit JoinIronHorse.com. That's your brief for Monday. Let's make it a powerful week.

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    3 min