François Picard is pleased to welcome Farad Khajkvar, Director of Studies at the School of Higher Studies, EHESS, author of the forthcoming book in French, Iran: The End of Totalitarianism. He sees today’s Iran as a system in which religion has become subordinate to politics, and politics itself is increasingly subordinate to the Revolutionary Guards. In his view, the succession after Khamenei does not reflect institutional legitimacy so much as coercive power, and the new leadership appears far weaker and more dependent than the previous one.

At the same time, the regime survives not because it commands broad popular support, but because it still knows how to exploit fear, repression, geopolitical limits, and the vulnerabilities of stronger adversaries.

According to Khajkvar, Iran is not strong, but it remains dangerous precisely because weakness can produce improvisation, retaliation, and creative forms of asymmetric disruption. Khajkvar describes the web as "the revenge of the weak against the strong". Cyberterrorism can be a highly effective tool for Iran, to level the playing field, and make up for the "obvious disproportion between the Iranian military and the American forces".

In this sense, explains Khajkvar, "Iran is playing the game'" with a powerful weapon to take on American might by unleashing "mental, subjective impact" that will also garner heavy media coverage.

FRANCE 24’s François Picard is joined by Dr. Rouzbeh Parsi, Adjunct Senior Lecturer at Lund University in Sweden. According to Parsi, the current political situation in Iran should be approached with caution, as too much attention is being paid to the potential rise of Mojtaba Khamenei. The Islamic Republic is not a system built around a single individual, especially during a time of war. Decision-making power lies with institutions such as the Revolutionary Guards and the wider security establishment.

Militarily, outside observers also risk misinterpreting Iranian behaviour. A reduction in missile launches, for example, should not automatically be read as a lack of capability. It may instead reflect a deliberate strategic approach aimed at weakening defensive systems first, thereby increasing the effectiveness of later strikes.

Ultimately, Iran’s objective appears to be as political as it is military: to demonstrate that attacking Iran carries costs, and to ensure that any eventual negotiations with the United States occur on more serious terms than previously attempted. As Parsi puts it, “the Iranians are going to play this game their own way.”

At the same time, the US approach to the conflict appears to lack strategic coherence. Changing objectives and unclear political end goals risk turning the crisis into a cycle of escalating tensions rather than a path toward resolution. Even limited Iranian capabilities, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could impose significant costs on the global economy simply through the threat they pose.

Parsi also warns that the war has complicated internal dynamics within Iran itself. While some Iranians initially hoped external pressure might weaken the regime, many are now confronting the reality that aerial warfare primarily destroys infrastructure and societal institutions.

The resulting human and economic costs may not guarantee political change, leaving open the possibility that the country could emerge from the conflict with a weakened state but an unchanged political system.

François Picard is very pleased to welcome Marcos Athias Neto, UN Assistant Secretary-General & UNDP Assistant Administrator. In the view of Mr. Neto, the world today is experiencing a profound crisis of development. Global development should not be understood as a secondary or charitable concern, he explains, but as the foundation of global stability itself. In an era defined by geopolitical tensions, climate disruption, and economic uncertainty, development is no longer simply a "soft power", it has become the "first line of defense" against instability.

Energy security, reconstruction, and digital transformation are all interconnected elements of this broader development challenge. While current geopolitical crises highlight the vulnerabilities of global energy systems, they also reveal an opportunity: the transition to renewable energy can simultaneously strengthen energy security, create jobs, and build more resilient economies. Yet the global system is under strain, warns Mr. Neto. Official development assistance is declining, multilateral cooperation is being tested, and technological change risks widening global inequalities. If two billion people remain disconnected from the internet, conversations about artificial intelligence governance will remain irrelevant to large parts of the world. For the UN Assistant Secretary-General, the path forward requires renewed commitment to multilateral cooperation, strategic investment in jobs and supply chains in developing countries, and policies that align climate action with economic development. If countries work together to expand opportunities in sectors such as green energy, digital infrastructure, and sustainable industry, development can once again become the stabilising force the world urgently needs.