François Picard is pleased to welcome Farad Khajkvar, Director of Studies at the School of Higher Studies, EHESS, author of the forthcoming book in French, Iran: The End of Totalitarianism. He sees today’s Iran as a system in which religion has become subordinate to politics, and politics itself is increasingly subordinate to the Revolutionary Guards. In his view, the succession after Khamenei does not reflect institutional legitimacy so much as coercive power, and the new leadership appears far weaker and more dependent than the previous one.

At the same time, the regime survives not because it commands broad popular support, but because it still knows how to exploit fear, repression, geopolitical limits, and the vulnerabilities of stronger adversaries.

According to Khajkvar, Iran is not strong, but it remains dangerous precisely because weakness can produce improvisation, retaliation, and creative forms of asymmetric disruption. Khajkvar describes the web as "the revenge of the weak against the strong". Cyberterrorism can be a highly effective tool for Iran, to level the playing field, and make up for the "obvious disproportion between the Iranian military and the American forces".

In this sense, explains Khajkvar, "Iran is playing the game'" with a powerful weapon to take on American might by unleashing "mental, subjective impact" that will also garner heavy media coverage.

FRANCE 24’s François Picard is joined by Dr. Rouzbeh Parsi, Adjunct Senior Lecturer at Lund University in Sweden. According to Parsi, the current political situation in Iran should be approached with caution, as too much attention is being paid to the potential rise of Mojtaba Khamenei. The Islamic Republic is not a system built around a single individual, especially during a time of war. Decision-making power lies with institutions such as the Revolutionary Guards and the wider security establishment.

Militarily, outside observers also risk misinterpreting Iranian behaviour. A reduction in missile launches, for example, should not automatically be read as a lack of capability. It may instead reflect a deliberate strategic approach aimed at weakening defensive systems first, thereby increasing the effectiveness of later strikes.

Ultimately, Iran’s objective appears to be as political as it is military: to demonstrate that attacking Iran carries costs, and to ensure that any eventual negotiations with the United States occur on more serious terms than previously attempted. As Parsi puts it, “the Iranians are going to play this game their own way.”

At the same time, the US approach to the conflict appears to lack strategic coherence. Changing objectives and unclear political end goals risk turning the crisis into a cycle of escalating tensions rather than a path toward resolution. Even limited Iranian capabilities, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could impose significant costs on the global economy simply through the threat they pose.

Parsi also warns that the war has complicated internal dynamics within Iran itself. While some Iranians initially hoped external pressure might weaken the regime, many are now confronting the reality that aerial warfare primarily destroys infrastructure and societal institutions.

The resulting human and economic costs may not guarantee political change, leaving open the possibility that the country could emerge from the conflict with a weakened state but an unchanged political system.

François Picard is very pleased to welcome Marcos Athias Neto, UN Assistant Secretary-General & UNDP Assistant Administrator. In the view of Mr. Neto, the world today is experiencing a profound crisis of development. Global development should not be understood as a secondary or charitable concern, he explains, but as the foundation of global stability itself. In an era defined by geopolitical tensions, climate disruption, and economic uncertainty, development is no longer simply a "soft power", it has become the "first line of defense" against instability.

Energy security, reconstruction, and digital transformation are all interconnected elements of this broader development challenge. While current geopolitical crises highlight the vulnerabilities of global energy systems, they also reveal an opportunity: the transition to renewable energy can simultaneously strengthen energy security, create jobs, and build more resilient economies. Yet the global system is under strain, warns Mr. Neto. Official development assistance is declining, multilateral cooperation is being tested, and technological change risks widening global inequalities. If two billion people remain disconnected from the internet, conversations about artificial intelligence governance will remain irrelevant to large parts of the world. For the UN Assistant Secretary-General, the path forward requires renewed commitment to multilateral cooperation, strategic investment in jobs and supply chains in developing countries, and policies that align climate action with economic development. If countries work together to expand opportunities in sectors such as green energy, digital infrastructure, and sustainable industry, development can once again become the stabilising force the world urgently needs.

FRANCE 24's François Picard welcomes Jon Marks, author, political scientist and chairman/founder of Cross-border Information. Having followed energy markets for decades, Marks warns that we are in uncharted waters: the current crisis bears little resemblance to any previous shock.

Analysts instinctively look for historical parallels – the oil shocks of the 1970s, the tanker wars of the 1980s, or the market turmoil following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Yet the current situation combines elements of all three while remaining fundamentally distinct. This is unprecedented.

At the heart of the crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically sensitive maritime corridor that has rarely faced disruption on this scale. Meanwhile, the geopolitical context of global energy markets has shifted dramatically. The oil market is no longer solely Western-focused; it is increasingly shaped by Asian demand, meaning countries such as China, India, South Korea and Japan may feel the most immediate economic impact.

Amid global instability, Russia stands to gain, both politically and economically. Europe faces rising fuel costs and a renewed debate over energy dependency, particularly the shift from Russian pipeline gas to greater reliance on liquefied natural gas imports from the United States. At the same time, Gulf states must reassess their strategic relationship with Washington, after a military escalation produced consequences that few anticipated.

Tensions surrounding Iran are drawing renewed international attention amid reports of rising regional instability and questions about how different actors across the region could be affected. Iran’s Kurdish regions – where political movements have long sought greater rights and representation – are also part of the wider discussion as the situation continues to evolve. FRANCE 24 spoke to Asso Hassan Zadeh, the former deputy secretary-general of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran.

Produced by Rebecca Gnignati, Guillaume Gougeon and Alessandro Xenos

In this edition of Spotlight, we speak to Richard Dalton, the former British ambassador to Iran and Libya and a former consul-general in Jerusalem, to unpack the first week of a war that has erupted in the Middle East – and what may come next.

With President Donald Trump demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender”, and Tehran showing no public sign of diplomatic outreach, Dalton reflects on how conflicts in the Middle East often unfold behind the scenes. Even when rhetoric hardens, he notes, quiet back-channel communications between adversaries and intermediaries can continue out of public view.

Dalton also offers insight into the inner workings of Iran’s leadership following the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Drawing on his time as ambassador in Tehran from 2003 to 2006, he reflects on the political culture surrounding the office of the Supreme Leader and the network of clerics, political figures and security elites who shape decision-making in the Islamic Republic.

Those dynamics may prove crucial in determining who emerges as an influential figure in a possible new era – including speculation surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei.

The conversation also turns to Europe’s response to the crisis, where leaders have struck markedly different tones. As Mark Rutte, Secretary-General of NATO, expresses confidence in Washington’s strategy, Germany’s Friedrich Merz has warned of the risk of chaos and a potential refugee crisis if Iran’s state structures collapse. Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, meanwhile, has taken a more cautious stance, reportedly refusing the use of Spanish bases for US operations.

Against this backdrop, Dalton reflects on leadership in moments of international crisis, as Europe marks the 80th anniversary of Winston Churchill’s Iron Curtain speech. With Russia condemning the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader while navigating its own strategic ties with Iran, the geopolitical landscape raises broader questions about power, alliances – and whether any contemporary leader commands the kind of authority associated with Churchill in times of upheaval.

As civilians in southern Beirut are ordered to evacuate ahead of an Israeli offensive, François Picard is pleased to welcome Nadim Houry, Executive Director of the Arab Reform Initiative (ARI). Houry describes the war on Iran and the ensuing conflict spreading across the Middle East as "one large illegal war" whose consequences are rapidly overwhelming Lebanon and threatening to reshape the entire region.

Read moreWar in Middle East live: Israel orders evacuation of towns in Lebanon’s Bekaa region

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been ordered to flee with almost no warning and no clear refuge, while the Lebanese state is struggling to reassert its authority after years of economic collapse and political paralysis.

Our Spotlight interview aired shortly prior to French President Emmanuel Macron's announcement pledging armoured vehicles for the Lebanese government.

François Picard welcomes Alexander Abdelilah, an investigative journalist for Forbidden Stories who has just published a report on how the Iranian regime secretly acquired FindFace in 2019, a powerful facial recognition system developed by Russian company NTechLab. Abdelilah explores how this system operates both technically and politically. FindFace allows authorities to run recorded footage from CCTV cameras, street recordings, or even social media videos through an algorithm capable of matching a face in a crowd and tracing individuals who participate in protests.

Read moreExclusive: Iran, massacre under a blackout

While the Iranian case illustrates the risks of such technologies in an authoritarian context, it also raises broader questions about the growing use of facial recognition in democratic societies.