Late in October, the Communist Party of China concluded the Fourth Plenary session of the 20th Central Committee. Plenums as critically important gatherings of the Party’s elite. This one outlined the vision for China’s overall development for the next five years.

The nutshell version of the long document that was issued was that Xi Jinping’s leadership has taken China down the right path of development and amassing power. So, we should expect more of that—more continuity in policy. In that sense, the Chinese leadership appears extremely confident that history and momentum are on its side. That said, the Party also believes that China is in an era where risks and opportunities coexist.

So when it comes to the balance, do the opportunities outweigh the risks? Or is it the other way around? If you look at developments within China, power has become more centralised and political discipline more exacting. Abroad, China faces a world less willing to accommodate its ambitions, from tense ties with the United States to friction with its neighbours and rising technological barriers.

So how should we read China in 2025? What does the Fourth Plenum reveal about the direction of economic policy, inner-Party debates, the state of the PLA, and the issue of political stability?

To unpack these questions, in this episode of the Great Power Show, I speak with Neil Thomas, Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. Neil’s one of the most astute and thoughtful watchers of Chinese politics. Our conversation begins with how the world looks from Xi Jinping’s vantage point, and what that tells us about China’s evolving political logic and global ambitions. Along the way, we explore China’s current trajectory. We end by contemplating a China without Xi at the helm, and what the next chapter of leadership might mean for Beijing and the world.

As always, I hope you enjoy the discussion. Please like, share, subscribe and rate the episode; and if you’d like to support the show or the work I do, don’t hesitate to reach out to me.

There’s a paradox at the heart of the India–Russia relationship.

On one level, there are no direct conflicts of interest. In fact, at a moment like the present, when even trusted partners like the United States appear willing to coerce New Delhi, Moscow seems like a reliable friend. It remains a key defense supplier, and now also an important energy partner, offering deep discounts to keep its own economy afloat. The relationship with Moscow also gives Delhi a degree of maneuverability in the wider Eurasian space.

And yet, there are growing limitations, and increasing costs, that this friendship brings. Beyond the 25% tariff penalty that the Trump administration has imposed on India for buying Russian oil, there are deeper strategic concerns. Russia’s increasing dependence on China raises anxieties in Delhi; its tentative outreach to Pakistan creates unease; and of course, the ongoing war in Ukraine continues to complicate India’s ties with Europe.

All of these issues are likely to return to the headlines come December, when Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Delhi. But to understand the stakes of that visit, and indeed, the future of this partnership, we need to step back and look at Russia itself: the political system, the worldview of its leaders, and the strategic logic that drives its behaviour.

How stable is the Russian state today? What kind of world order does Moscow want to build? And how does it really see India and the Indo-Pacific amid a world of shifting alignments?

To unpack these questions, in this episode of The Great Power Show, I speak to Aleksei Zakharov, a Research Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation’s Strategic Studies Programme in New Delhi. Our conversation begins with a look at how Moscow views the world; what kind of an order does it crave? How has the leadership managed economic and political stability while engaging in what seems to be a protracted conflict in Ukraine.

We also discuss how Russia conceives of great power competition between the United States and China? How deep are Moscow’s equities with Beijing? And how does it position itself in the Indo-Pacific, a region where its influence remains limited but its ambitions endure.

As always, I hope you enjoy the discussion. Please like, share, subscribe and rate the episode; and if you’d like to support the show or the work I do, don’t hesitate to reach out to me.

Look around the world today; there are few certainties. The global order is in a state of flux. And that means that every country is rethinking old assumptions, and even old partnerships. There’s a lot of jockeying for wriggle room; a lot of signalling to partners and rivals. And often in the media environment that we live in today, signals get taken to mean substantive or even structural shifts. Alas, sometimes a signal is simply that; a signal.

So what should we pay attention to if we want to understand the trajectory of countries and the international system? Interests, of course. But what else? What are the structural factors that students and watchers of International Relations should study?

To understand these dynamics better, in this episode of The Great Power Show, I speak to Stephen Nagy, Professor of Politics and International Studies International Christian University in Tokyo. Stephen is a critic of the snapshot analysis that permeates the media environment. He contends that instead of photo-ops and rhetoric, one should focus on structural factors like budgetary allocations and force posture. In other words, it’s not the stated but the revealed preference that matters in geopolitics.

Our conversation also focussed on the nature of US-China competition. More importantly, what is the Trump administration’s America First agenda, and how does it tie in with this great power competition? And of course, how are Japan and other countries in East Asia contending with these turbulent times?

As always, I hope you enjoy the discussion. Please like, share, subscribe and rate the episode; and if you’d like to support the show or the work I do, don’t hesitate to reach out to me.

Read Prof. Nagy’s piece in Japan Times: International relations analysis needs to grow up

About: The Great Power Show is a bi-weekly podcast featuring candid conversations and thought-provoking interviews with leading scholars, thinkers and practitioners on the geopolitical and geo-economic changes shaping our world.