This week on The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast — the Bank of Canada cuts rates again. But are we at the bottom of this cycle, or is another surprise still coming? As Ottawa gears up to unveil its massive 2026 federal budget, we break down how an $80 billion deficit could completely reshape Canada’s interest rate path and keep borrowing costs higher for longer. What does that mean for homebuyers, investors, and renters? We’ll unpack it all — from a slowing economy to a shifting housing pipeline that’s seeing record rental construction, collapsing building permits, and an alarming wave of cancelled condo projects.

The Bank’s latest 25-basis-point cut brings the overnight rate to 2.25%, right at the bottom of its neutral range. While that offers a small reprieve for variable-rate holders, economists warn we’re nearing the end of this easing cycle. With GDP growth projected at just over 1% for the next two years, and the Bank declaring that U.S. trade tariffs are “fundamentally reshaping Canada’s economy,” we’re entering an adjustment phase — not a boom. At the same time, the government’s expected fiscal stimulus could actually push rates higher over time, as bond markets demand more to finance record-level deficits.

Meanwhile, Canada’s housing pipeline is starting to fracture. New single-family and condo starts are plunging while rental construction surges to all-time highs. Over 110,000 rental units are now underway — half of all new housing starts in the country — even as student demand collapses and rent incentives pile up. In contrast, homeowner-driven construction is at its lowest since 2009, setting the stage for tighter resale supply in the years ahead. The collapse in new condo sales, record cancellations, and vanishing launches in the GTA only reinforce what’s coming — a short-term freeze that could sow the seeds for the next supply crunch.

Mortgage renewals continue to bite, with payments rising roughly $105 per $100,000 borrowed — the steepest increase since the early ’90s. Most borrowers are opting for three- to four-year fixed terms, betting that rates will be lower by mid-decade but perhaps discounting the inflationary pressures that could come with a massive budget. But with consumer confidence now at levels last seen during the financial crisis, Canadians are hesitant to make big moves — even as mortgage affordability improves to its best point since 2021.

And while October’s housing data shows signs of life — with sales volumes and prices at their highest levels of 2025 — the real question is whether this marks a turning point or just a temporary blip. Between fiscal stimulus, trade uncertainty, and a fragile job market, Canada’s housing story is once again at a crossroads. By the end of this week's episode, you’ll know exactly where this market is heading next — and how to position yourself before the next cycle begins.

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Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

According to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association, national home sales declined by 1.7% month-over-month in September, ending a string of steady gains that began in the spring. Even so, this was still the strongest September for sales since 2021. On a year-over-year basis, transactions were up 5.2%, while both new listings and total active listings fell 0.8%. That left just 4.4 months of inventory available nationwide — the lowest level since January, and below the long-term average of five months.

The Home Price Index dropped 0.1% month-over-month and is now down 3.4% year-over-year. Average prices, meanwhile, rose a modest 0.7% compared to last year. Regionally, B.C. and Ontario are the only provinces still showing price declines, while every other province posted gains. Yukon led the pack with a 13.4% annual price increase.

But when you adjust for inflation and measure from the February 2022 peak, the story changes dramatically. Real home prices in Canada are now down roughly 29%. In nominal terms, they’re down 18%. Hamilton has taken the biggest hit—down about 40% after inflation—followed by the GTA and then Vancouver, which is sitting around a 20% real decline. On the flip side, Greater Moncton and Saskatoon are actually up roughly 19% nominal, or about 8% in real terms, since that same peak.

The widening gap between new listings and completed sales continues to point toward more downward pressure on prices ahead. And even though affordability has “improved” from the record-breaking lows of 2024, it remains completely out of reach for most Canadians. In Vancouver, the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home still eats up about 87% of the median household income — a figure that’s almost comically unsustainable.

So where does that leave us heading into the final stretch of 2025? Will collapsing affordability finally force the next rate cut — or will the Bank hold the line, freezing the market even further? We break it all down — from record-level mortgage exposure to the cities where prices have quietly crashed 40%.

This episode also marks a huge milestone — Episode 300 of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast. Since launching on June 22nd, 2020, the team has released a new episode every single Saturday without missing a week. Now with over 7,000 subscribers and 70,000+ monthly views, The Vancouver Life remains one of Canada’s most consistent and data-driven real estate channels.

To celebrate, we’re giving away our exclusive Home Seller’s Manual — the guide we use to help clients sell for top dollar. It includes prep strategies, curb-appeal tips, organization hacks, and a 100-point checklist showing which areas matter most. To get your copy make sure you watch the episode and comment TOP DOLLAR.

We also unpack Vancouver’s sweeping new rezoning — a city-initiated move affecting over 4,000 properties across the Broadway Plan and Cambie Corridor. Projects that meet the new criteria can skip rezoning entirely, shaving up to 12 months off approval times. It’s a bold step toward faster housing — but with costs high and demand soft, will developers take advantage?

Episode 300 of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast — available now and join the discussion about where Canada’s housing market is heading next.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Canada’s housing market is undergoing a fundamental transformation—not just in prices, but in the types of homes being built. From Toronto to Vancouver to Calgary, developers are hitting pause, construction starts are slowing, and the mix of housing completions over the next 3 to 5 years is shifting dramatically. Single-family homes and condos, the traditional pillars of Canadian homeownership, are seeing major declines in new construction, while purpose-built rentals are quietly surging to record levels.

Toronto, often viewed as a leading indicator, has seen residential units under construction fall by 2.3% in just the last month and nearly 11% year-over-year. The most significant drop is in condo construction, which is down 16.4%, alongside a 17.1% decline in single-family homes. Meanwhile, purpose-built rentals have jumped 15.5% year-over-year. Vancouver and Calgary mirror this trend to varying degrees. Calgary, in particular, stands out with purpose-built rentals up nearly 55% year-over-year.

This shift signals a fundamental reorientation in Canada’s housing pipeline. Fewer condos and detached homes are on the horizon, while rental supply is set to expand significantly. The likely outcome is continued downward pressure on rental rates, declining returns for individual condo investors, and increased resale activity as holding becomes less attractive. At the same time, the construction of new single-family homes is virtually non-existent outside of legacy luxury pockets like Shaughnessy, West Vancouver, or Point Grey.

Compounding this trend, the future pipeline is showing further weakness. Building permits have fallen 2.4% year-over-year, and when adjusted for inflation, the value of those permits has dropped by nearly 8%, representing over $560 million in reduced residential development. Single-family home permits are down over 10%, and even the more resilient multifamily sector is beginning to slow. Since peaking in December 2024, multifamily permits have declined nearly 29%.

These trends suggest that despite aggressive government incentives to stimulate new housing, developers are losing confidence. Rising costs, softening demand, and bureaucratic friction are now overpowering policy carrots. This disconnect between government ambition and market risk tolerance is emerging as a critical obstacle to new supply.

Nowhere is this more visible than in Burnaby. As one of the first cities to aggressively implement British Columbia’s multiplex zoning legislation, Burnaby fast-tracked significant densification across formerly single-family zones. But as those projects break ground, residents are pushing back. From 4-storey laneway houses to high-density builds with zero parking, public backlash has prompted the city to reconsider.

Together, these data points paint a picture of a housing market that is not just cooling, but reshaping. The supply mix is being rewritten, urban policy is facing backlash, and economic signals are increasingly bifurcated between headline strength and structural weakness. For homeowners, investors, and policymakers alike, the next chapter in Canada’s housing story won’t just be about prices—it will be about purpose.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com