Host Andrew Walker delivers his November ramblings with four key themes. He kicks things off with a story about craps in Vegas to illustrate how early wins in investing can falsely reinforce flawed strategies. Andrew also explores the mental traps of buying stocks he initially passed on, offers cautious commentary on shorting the so-called "AI bubble," and reflects on why trusting management projections and NAV estimates often ends in disappointment. With a new baby on the way, Andrew signs off with personal updates and an open invitation for listeners to reach out and discuss these topics further.

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[00:00:00] Podcast intro and disclaimer

[00:02:05] Wins lure into false security

[00:12:45] Passed stocks drop, then buy

[00:20:00] Shorting AI bubble discussed

[00:26:20] Trusting management and NAV

[00:28:40] Final thoughts and baby update

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

On the heels of sending an open letter to the Golden Entertainment's (GDEN; disclosure: long) board, host Andrew Walker dives deeper into Golden's take private deal and why he believes it transfers ~$300m of value from minority shareholders to insiders.

Open letter to GDEN board: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/an-open-letter-to-the-golden-entertainment

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[00:00:02] Intro to special episode

[00:03:26] Comparison to Louvre heist

[00:04:20] Smoking guns and IR site change

[00:07:35] Sale leaseback structure details

[00:09:15] Valuation analysis and critique

[00:13:30] Everbay letter and valuation math

[00:16:45] Management buyout vs. fair value

[00:19:00] Critique of go-shop process

[00:21:10] Regulatory hurdles for go-shop

[00:23:40] Call for fair deal structure

[00:24:50] Closing thoughts and disclaimer

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Chadd Garcia joins the five timers club and talks about his investment thesis for WaterBridge (WBI). WaterBridge is a recent IPO that manages water from oil drilling, largely in the Permian Basin. Chadd's spent a lot of time on oil services and infrastructure, and he breaks down how this investment relates to prior investments in LandBridge, Texas Pacific, and Secure. He also talks about the opportunity for growth and pricing power at WaterBridge.

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[00:00:00] Podcast intro and Chad returns

[00:02:24] WaterBridge’s core operations explained

[00:04:41] Pipelines and disposal network details

[00:06:03] Missed waste parallels in analysis

[00:10:52] Valuation setup and contract pricing

[00:13:04] 2025 EBITDA forecast discussed

[00:14:45] Scalability from current infrastructure

[00:15:37] Infrastructure ROICs and economics

[00:17:33] Land ownership and strategic value

[00:19:05] WaterBridge vs. LandBridge relationship

[00:22:25] Why Devon partners with WaterBridge

[00:27:35] Sponsor structure and conflict resolution

[00:29:30] Regulatory risk and permitting update

[00:33:39] Permian basin long-term outlook

[00:35:10] Increasing water cuts impact volumes

[00:36:41] Oil price sensitivity and volume trends

[00:38:03] Organic growth via MVC contracts

[00:39:11] Maintenance capex benchmarking

[00:41:40] Capital allocation and future returns

[00:42:31] Waste comps and multiple discussion

[00:45:49] Terminal value and ROIC comparisons

[00:47:57] Key risks: spills and short reports

[00:49:12] Environmental downside vs. oil spills

[00:51:25] Short reports and perceived conflicts

[00:52:21] Why WaterBridge and LandBridge are separate

[00:53:08] Investor day importance and growth

[00:54:10] Chad’s visibility helps spread thesis

[00:56:54] Housing workers for Texas data center boom

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer