Host Andrew Walker delivers his November ramblings with four key themes. He kicks things off with a story about craps in Vegas to illustrate how early wins in investing can falsely reinforce flawed strategies. Andrew also explores the mental traps of buying stocks he initially passed on, offers cautious commentary on shorting the so-called "AI bubble," and reflects on why trusting management projections and NAV estimates often ends in disappointment. With a new baby on the way, Andrew signs off with personal updates and an open invitation for listeners to reach out and discuss these topics further.

_________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Podcast intro and disclaimer

[00:02:05] Wins lure into false security

[00:12:45] Passed stocks drop, then buy

[00:20:00] Shorting AI bubble discussed

[00:26:20] Trusting management and NAV

[00:28:40] Final thoughts and baby update

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

On the heels of sending an open letter to the Golden Entertainment's (GDEN; disclosure: long) board, host Andrew Walker dives deeper into Golden's take private deal and why he believes it transfers ~$300m of value from minority shareholders to insiders.

Open letter to GDEN board: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/an-open-letter-to-the-golden-entertainment

___________________________________________________________

[00:00:02] Intro to special episode

[00:03:26] Comparison to Louvre heist

[00:04:20] Smoking guns and IR site change

[00:07:35] Sale leaseback structure details

[00:09:15] Valuation analysis and critique

[00:13:30] Everbay letter and valuation math

[00:16:45] Management buyout vs. fair value

[00:19:00] Critique of go-shop process

[00:21:10] Regulatory hurdles for go-shop

[00:23:40] Call for fair deal structure

[00:24:50] Closing thoughts and disclaimer

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Chadd Garcia joins the five timers club and talks about his investment thesis for WaterBridge (WBI). WaterBridge is a recent IPO that manages water from oil drilling, largely in the Permian Basin. Chadd's spent a lot of time on oil services and infrastructure, and he breaks down how this investment relates to prior investments in LandBridge, Texas Pacific, and Secure. He also talks about the opportunity for growth and pricing power at WaterBridge.

__________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Podcast intro and Chad returns

[00:02:24] WaterBridge’s core operations explained

[00:04:41] Pipelines and disposal network details

[00:06:03] Missed waste parallels in analysis

[00:10:52] Valuation setup and contract pricing

[00:13:04] 2025 EBITDA forecast discussed

[00:14:45] Scalability from current infrastructure

[00:15:37] Infrastructure ROICs and economics

[00:17:33] Land ownership and strategic value

[00:19:05] WaterBridge vs. LandBridge relationship

[00:22:25] Why Devon partners with WaterBridge

[00:27:35] Sponsor structure and conflict resolution

[00:29:30] Regulatory risk and permitting update

[00:33:39] Permian basin long-term outlook

[00:35:10] Increasing water cuts impact volumes

[00:36:41] Oil price sensitivity and volume trends

[00:38:03] Organic growth via MVC contracts

[00:39:11] Maintenance capex benchmarking

[00:41:40] Capital allocation and future returns

[00:42:31] Waste comps and multiple discussion

[00:45:49] Terminal value and ROIC comparisons

[00:47:57] Key risks: spills and short reports

[00:49:12] Environmental downside vs. oil spills

[00:51:25] Short reports and perceived conflicts

[00:52:21] Why WaterBridge and LandBridge are separate

[00:53:08] Investor day importance and growth

[00:54:10] Chad’s visibility helps spread thesis

[00:56:54] Housing workers for Texas data center boom

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Andrei Stetsenko from Gymkhana Partners explores the investment case for Indian holdcos in general and Maharashtra Scooters in particular. Andrei outlines why he isn't just looking for a discount to NAV; he talks about how he breaks down the underlying NAV and incentives of the key players when assessing an Indian holdco, and how he believes the control of the Bajaj Group can create long term value.

Gymkhana Partners website: www.gymkhanapartners.com

Gymkhana's Q3 letter: https://www.gymkhanapartners.com/investor-letters/gymkhana-partners-q3-2025-quarterly-letter

Post on financialization of Indian savings: https://www.gymkhanapartners.com/dispatches/the-equitization-of-indian-savings

Doug's Alphasense webinar: ______________________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:02:57] Indian holdcos and Bajaj group

[00:05:47] Maharashtra Scooter NAV breakdown

[00:06:45] Growth prospects in Bajaj firms

[00:09:03] Insurance and lending discipline

[00:12:45] Risks of investing abroad

[00:15:25] India research and diligence

[00:17:03] India-dedicated fund strategy

[00:19:08] India’s economic transformation

[00:22:20] Attractive Indian holdcos overview

[00:25:36] Holdco incentive and structure

[00:28:50] SEBI reforms and catalysts

[00:29:41] Parallels with Japan’s reforms

[00:32:58] Professionalization and buyback signs

[00:33:46] Shareholder alignment and liquidity

[00:36:48] Family dynamics and governance

[00:39:23] NAV reliability and fundamentals

[00:42:03] Buybacks, dividends, and hurdles

[00:43:59] Governance: India vs US

[00:47:06] Potential unlock mechanisms

[00:49:56] Past performance and future growth

[00:52:33] Closing thoughts and blog posts

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Doug O’Loughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and SemiAnalysis returns to the podcast in to dive into all things AI, Power, and Corporate Governance. On the AI side, they discuss where we are in the cycle, if AI is a bubble, and what will drive the next leg of growth. On the corporate governance side, they discuss using signals like off-cycle PSU grants to reflexive incentive structures to find investments, as well as diving into some topical examples. (PS- Doug’s last appearance was podcast #166 on AppLovin $APP, which doubles as the best performing pitch in YAVP history).

Links

• Doug's AppLovin $APP podcast appearance
• Doug's Webinar with AlphaSense
• Fabricatated Knowledge:

____________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Podcast intro and Doug’s background

[00:02:36] AI sector partying vs. value sadness

[00:04:06] AI’s capital cycle and bubble setup

[00:07:04] Oracle’s shift to debt-fueled capex

[00:09:45] Why capital intensity changes multiples

[00:11:48] TPU vs. Nvidia: a real challenger

[00:13:07] Google’s evolving TPU go-to-market

[00:16:02] AI scaling walls and RL progress

[00:18:24] Reinforcement learning and Dota AI

[00:20:15] Token economics and GPU monetization

[00:22:02] OpenAI, profitability, and token resale

[00:24:00] AI’s deflationary impact and services

[00:26:51] Revisiting the power bottleneck thesis

[00:27:44] Power grid constraints and worker shortages

[00:31:33] Industrials benefiting from AI buildout

[00:32:22] Generalist vs. specialist investor gaps

[00:33:47] Specialist traps in relative valuation

[00:36:36] Doug’s obsession with board behavior

[00:38:19] Do boards game investors with PSUs?

[00:41:12] Reflexive incentives at Broadcom example

[00:42:17] Mimification and pump incentives at Opendoor

[00:44:46] Performance incentives vs. job requirements

[00:46:19] Biotech boards failing shareholder alignment

[00:46:42] PSU timing around Target Hospitality’s drop

[00:52:09] ICE contracts and bed shortage opportunity

[00:56:54] Housing workers for Texas data center boom

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this month’s episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker reflects on key investing themes from October 2025. He probes Warren Buffett’s late-stage performance, introducing a concept called “risk riding” and considers the unseen risks that may have shaped Buffett’s recent success. Andrew also critiques excessive investor relations spending, explores a tweet on the underappreciated value of averaging up, and questions the mindset behind stocks being “cheaper today than yesterday.”

_____________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Intro, Buffett, risk riding

[00:02:45] Returns vs risk over time

[00:06:30] Buffett aging, investment impact

[00:12:30] Investor relations overspending

[00:16:55] Gifts, wasteful IR practices

[00:21:20] Tweet on averaging up

[00:24:00] Cheaper today vs yesterday

[00:25:10] Personal update

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Zack Buckley of Buckley Capital Partners to discuss Basic-Fit, Europe’s largest gym chain. Zack shares why the market has been overly pessimistic on the name, despite long-term growth potential. They break down what went wrong post-2020, unit economics, and whether Basic-Fit can finally deliver on expectations. Zack also outlines the opportunity in France’s 24/7 gym shift, the underappreciated moat in Basic-Fit's cluster strategy, and why he sees the stock potentially tripling. It's a conversation packed with deep due diligence, strategic insights, and a firm outlook on value creation.______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:02:41] Basic Fit’s business overview[00:03:15] Why market misjudges Basic Fit[00:04:40] COVID’s impact on gym cohorts[00:07:48] Zack’s in-person gym visits[00:10:12] Unit economics explained[00:14:00] Capex and depreciation debate[00:15:36] Member per store growth importance[00:16:32] 24/7 France investment case[00:18:38] Staffless gym impact analysis[00:20:22] Basic Fit’s sustainable moat[00:22:43] Differences with Dental Corp[00:24:38] Low-cost model’s retail parallel[00:28:13] Franchising potential is minimal[00:31:50] Marketing spend not a concern[00:34:38] Path to $90 price target[00:36:51] Why past forecasts failed[00:38:26] Thoughts on management team[00:43:39] Valuing via replacement cost[00:46:47] Risk of future underperformance[00:48:48] European gym vs. U.S. context[00:50:25] Demand across European markets[00:53:50] Competitor threats and strategy[00:56:43] Cautious growth after 2021 boomLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Dom St. George from Cayucos Capital about Jardine Matheson, a complex, centuries-old conglomerate currently trading at a discount to its net asset value. Dom shares insights from over a decade of following the company, breaking down its historic roots, complicated structure, and the recent strategic overhaul under fifth-generation leadership. The conversation digs into the potential implications of new private equity hires, the value locked in Hong Kong Land and Mandarin Oriental, and whether simplification or empire-building lies ahead. Tune in for a discussion on the nuances of holdco investing and Asia’s corporate evolution.

____________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Jardine Matheson

[00:02:45] Dom joins and outlines background

[00:03:30] Jardine’s history in opium trade

[00:06:00] Creation of Hong Kong background

[00:07:30] Cross-holdings and structure issues

[00:09:00] Recent disposals and simplification steps

[00:10:24] Current NAV discount and relevance

[00:11:33] Major business segments explained

[00:13:00] Hong Kong Land valuation dynamics

[00:14:06] Debating real estate cap rate fairness

[00:16:36] Hiring private equity insiders

[00:18:12] Risks of reinvestment vs. wind-down

[00:20:46] Goal to raise AUM at Hong Kong Land

[00:22:52] Market discounts family holdcos

[00:24:56] Sell-mode vs. buy-mode question

[00:26:41] Pattern of mistimed investments

[00:27:05] Focus on five-year shareholder returns

[00:29:00] Mandarin Oriental asset repositioning

[00:30:55] Mandarin’s trophy brand potential

[00:32:00] Selling HK hotel land to Alibaba

[00:33:48] Lack of share buybacks questioned

[00:34:52] 1947 Trust and executive incentives

[00:36:50] Potential misalignment in trust structure

[00:38:23] Why Jardine vs. other holdcos?

[00:39:43] Astra International’s complexity

[00:41:48] Subsidiaries: elevators, Pizza Hut, KFC

[00:42:47] Final thoughts and episode wrap-up

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer