Thinking in Bets
Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Échec de l'ajout au panier.
Échec de l'ajout à la liste d'envies.
Échec de la suppression de la liste d’envies.
Échec du suivi du balado
Ne plus suivre le balado a échoué
1 mois d'essai gratuit à Audible Standard
Acheter pour 21,97 $
-
Narrateur(s):
-
Annie Duke
-
Auteur(s):
-
Annie Duke
À propos de cet audio
“A big favorite among investors these days.”—The New York Times
“Outstanding.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
Vous pourriez aussi aimer...
-
How to Decide
- Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
- Auteur(s): Annie Duke
- Narrateur(s): Annie Duke
- Durée: 6 h et 39 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global51
-
Performance45
-
Histoire44
Through a blend of compelling exercises and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like...
-
-
Practical and enjoyble in the same time
- Écrit par SavioRoca le 2020-12-26
Auteur(s): Annie Duke
-
Fooled by Randomness
- The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- Auteur(s): Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Narrateur(s): Sean Pratt
- Durée: 10 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global241
-
Performance186
-
Histoire184
This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
-
-
9 hours of mindless blabbering
- Écrit par Bryden Panchyshyn le 2019-04-04
Auteur(s): Nassim Nicholas Taleb
-
Superforecasting
- The Art and Science of Prediction
- Auteur(s): Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
- Narrateur(s): Joel Richards
- Durée: 9 h et 45 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global98
-
Performance73
-
Histoire72
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight.
-
-
loved it
- Écrit par Amazon Customer le 2022-05-26
Auteur(s): Philip Tetlock, Autres
-
The Art of Learning
- An Inner Journey to Optimal Performance
- Auteur(s): Josh Waitzkin
- Narrateur(s): Josh Waitzkin
- Durée: 7 h et 55 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global219
-
Performance175
-
Histoire176
The Art of Learning takes listeners through Waitzkin's unique journey to excellence. He explains in clear detail how a well-thought-out, principled approach to learning is what separates success from failure. Waitzkin believes that achievement, even at the championship level, is a function of a lifestyle that fuels a creative, resilient growth process.
-
-
Nothing learned but about chess and martial arts
- Écrit par FrankCo le 2018-04-22
Auteur(s): Josh Waitzkin
-
The Intelligence Trap
- Why Smart People Make Dumb Mistakes
- Auteur(s): David Robson
- Narrateur(s): Simon Slater
- Durée: 10 h et 19 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global16
-
Performance14
-
Histoire14
Smart people are not only just as prone to making mistakes as everyone else - they may be even more susceptible to them. This is the "intelligence trap", the subject of David Robson's fascinating and provocative book. The Intelligence Trap explores cutting-edge ideas in our understanding of intelligence and expertise, including "strategic ignorance", "meta-forgetfulness", and "functional stupidity."
-
-
Informative, clear and entertaining
- Écrit par Count Erklock le 2019-08-25
Auteur(s): David Robson
-
Quit
- The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away
- Auteur(s): Annie Duke
- Narrateur(s): Annie Duke
- Durée: 7 h et 43 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global47
-
Performance39
-
Histoire38
From the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets comes a toolkit for mastering the skill of quitting to achieve greater success Business leaders, with millions of dollars down the drain, struggle to abandon a new app or product that just isn’t working. Governments, caught in a hopeless conflict...
-
-
As good as or better than her prior books!
- Écrit par Julien Dion le 2024-04-19
Auteur(s): Annie Duke
-
How to Decide
- Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
- Auteur(s): Annie Duke
- Narrateur(s): Annie Duke
- Durée: 6 h et 39 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global51
-
Performance45
-
Histoire44
Through a blend of compelling exercises and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like...
-
-
Practical and enjoyble in the same time
- Écrit par SavioRoca le 2020-12-26
Auteur(s): Annie Duke
-
Fooled by Randomness
- The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- Auteur(s): Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Narrateur(s): Sean Pratt
- Durée: 10 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global241
-
Performance186
-
Histoire184
This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
-
-
9 hours of mindless blabbering
- Écrit par Bryden Panchyshyn le 2019-04-04
Auteur(s): Nassim Nicholas Taleb
-
Superforecasting
- The Art and Science of Prediction
- Auteur(s): Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
- Narrateur(s): Joel Richards
- Durée: 9 h et 45 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global98
-
Performance73
-
Histoire72
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight.
-
-
loved it
- Écrit par Amazon Customer le 2022-05-26
Auteur(s): Philip Tetlock, Autres
-
The Art of Learning
- An Inner Journey to Optimal Performance
- Auteur(s): Josh Waitzkin
- Narrateur(s): Josh Waitzkin
- Durée: 7 h et 55 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global219
-
Performance175
-
Histoire176
The Art of Learning takes listeners through Waitzkin's unique journey to excellence. He explains in clear detail how a well-thought-out, principled approach to learning is what separates success from failure. Waitzkin believes that achievement, even at the championship level, is a function of a lifestyle that fuels a creative, resilient growth process.
-
-
Nothing learned but about chess and martial arts
- Écrit par FrankCo le 2018-04-22
Auteur(s): Josh Waitzkin
-
The Intelligence Trap
- Why Smart People Make Dumb Mistakes
- Auteur(s): David Robson
- Narrateur(s): Simon Slater
- Durée: 10 h et 19 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global16
-
Performance14
-
Histoire14
Smart people are not only just as prone to making mistakes as everyone else - they may be even more susceptible to them. This is the "intelligence trap", the subject of David Robson's fascinating and provocative book. The Intelligence Trap explores cutting-edge ideas in our understanding of intelligence and expertise, including "strategic ignorance", "meta-forgetfulness", and "functional stupidity."
-
-
Informative, clear and entertaining
- Écrit par Count Erklock le 2019-08-25
Auteur(s): David Robson
-
Quit
- The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away
- Auteur(s): Annie Duke
- Narrateur(s): Annie Duke
- Durée: 7 h et 43 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global47
-
Performance39
-
Histoire38
From the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets comes a toolkit for mastering the skill of quitting to achieve greater success Business leaders, with millions of dollars down the drain, struggle to abandon a new app or product that just isn’t working. Governments, caught in a hopeless conflict...
-
-
As good as or better than her prior books!
- Écrit par Julien Dion le 2024-04-19
Auteur(s): Annie Duke
-
What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars
- Auteur(s): Jim Paul, Brendan Moynihan, Jack Schwager - foreword
- Narrateur(s): Patrick Lawlor
- Durée: 7 h et 29 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global118
-
Performance102
-
Histoire100
Jim Paul's meteoric rise took him from a small town in Northern Kentucky to governor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, yet he lost it all - his fortune, his reputation, and his job - in one fatal attack of excessive economic hubris. In this honest, frank analysis, Paul and Brendan Moynihan revisit the events that led to Paul's disastrous decision and examine the psychological factors behind bad financial practices in several economic sectors.
-
-
I am floored!
- Écrit par Amazon Customer le 2019-08-28
Auteur(s): Jim Paul, Autres
-
Titan
- The Life of John D. Rockefeller, Sr.
- Auteur(s): Ron Chernow
- Narrateur(s): Grover Gardner
- Durée: 35 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global220
-
Performance175
-
Histoire176
Titan is the first full-length biography based on unrestricted access to Rockefeller’s exceptionally rich trove of papers. A landmark publication full of startling revelations, the book indelibly alters our image of this most enigmatic capitalist. Born the son of a flamboyant, bigamous snake-oil salesman and a pious, straitlaced mother, Rockefeller rose from rustic origins to become the world’s richest man by creating America’s most powerful and feared monopoly, Standard Oil. Branded "the Octopus" by legions of muckrakers, the trust refined and marketed nearly 90 percent of the oil produced in America.
-
-
Thouroughly enjoyed every minute!!
- Écrit par Andrea le 2020-01-30
Auteur(s): Ron Chernow
-
The Innovator's Dilemma, with a New Foreword
- When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail
- Auteur(s): Clayton M. Christensen, Marc Benioff - foreword
- Narrateur(s): L.J. Ganse, Jonathan Todd Ross
- Durée: 8 h et 23 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global3
-
Performance1
-
Histoire1
Offering both successes and failures from leading companies as a guide, The Innovator's Dilemma gives you a set of rules for capitalizing on the phenomenon of disruptive innovation. Sharp, cogent, and provocative—and consistently noted as one of the most valuable business ideas of all time—The Innovator's Dilemma is the book no manager, leader, or entrepreneur should be without.
Auteur(s): Clayton M. Christensen, Autres
-
Seeing Like a State
- Auteur(s): James C. Scott
- Narrateur(s): Michael Kramer
- Durée: 16 h et 6 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global24
-
Performance20
-
Histoire19
Why do well-intentioned plans for improving the human condition go tragically awry? Author James C. Scott analyzes failed cases of large-scale authoritarian plans in a variety of fields. Centrally managed social plans misfire, Scott argues, when they impose schematic visions that do violence to complex interdependencies that are not - and cannot - be fully understood. Further, the success of designs for social organization depends upon the recognition that local, practical knowledge is as important as formal, epistemic knowledge.
-
-
Disappointing
- Écrit par unixd0od le 2022-05-12
Auteur(s): James C. Scott
-
How to Day Trade: The Plain Truth
- Auteur(s): Ross Cameron
- Narrateur(s): Ross Cameron
- Durée: 4 h et 32 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global7
-
Performance6
-
Histoire6
If you want to know the truth about what professional day trading is like—and how to get started with a solid foundation—then this will be the most important book you'll listen to all year. Ross Cameron is the guy who turned an initial investment of $583 into more than $10 million. No, his results aren't typical—and in fact, day trading didn’t come easily to him. This book describes what it's really like to go from knowing nothing about day trading to becoming highly successful at it.
-
-
Very broad overview.
- Écrit par Sasha Proctor le 2026-01-20
Auteur(s): Ross Cameron
-
On Confidence
- Auteur(s): The School of Life, Alain de Botton
- Narrateur(s): Alain de Botton
- Durée: 1 h et 9 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global19
-
Performance17
-
Histoire17
We spend vast amounts of time acquiring confidence in narrow technical fields: quadratic equations or bioengineering; economics or pole vaulting. But we overlook the primordial need to acquire a more free-ranging variety of confidence - one that can serve us across a range of tasks: speaking to strangers at parties, asking someone to marry us, suggesting a fellow passenger turn down their music, changing the world. This is a guidebook to confidence, why we lack it and how we can acquire more of it in our lives.
Auteur(s): The School of Life, Autres
-
Switch
- How to Change Things When Change Is Hard
- Auteur(s): Chip Heath, Dan Heath
- Narrateur(s): Charles Kahlenberg
- Durée: 7 h et 43 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global165
-
Performance133
-
Histoire132
#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER ONE MILLION COPIES SOLD! The ultimate guide to making changes and following through, from the authors of Made to Stick and Decisive—hailed as “witty and instructive” (The Wall Street Journal), “packed with examples and hands-on tools that will get you...
-
-
worth several listens!
- Écrit par Renee le 2021-01-23
Auteur(s): Chip Heath, Autres
-
The Mental Game of Trading
- A System for Solving Problems with Greed, Fear, Anger, Confidence, and Discipline
- Auteur(s): Jared Tendler
- Narrateur(s): Jared Tendler
- Durée: 9 h et 44 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global88
-
Performance58
-
Histoire56
If you are like most traders, you probably overlook or misunderstand mental and emotional obstacles. While many trading psychology books offer sound advice, they don't show you how to do the necessary work. That's why you haven't solved the problems hurting your performance. With straight talk and practical solutions, Jared Tendler brings a new voice to trading psychology. In The Mental Game of Trading, he busts myths about emotions, greed, and discipline, and shows you how to look past the obvious to identify the real reasons you're struggling.
-
-
Good, but outlines an unnecessary path to success
- Écrit par Neil le 2021-07-05
Auteur(s): Jared Tendler
-
Mastering Trading Psychology
- Improve Your Trading with Firsthand Reports by Real-Life Traders
- Auteur(s): Andrew Aziz, Mike Baehr
- Narrateur(s): Chris Abell
- Durée: 9 h et 19 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global57
-
Performance48
-
Histoire48
Andrew Aziz describes technology, strategy, and psychology as the three essential pillars of successful trading, and he knows that the psychological aspects of trading are the most likely to be underestimated or even ignored. He wrote Mastering Trading Psychology to help traders enhance their understanding of this crucial pillar of trading and to strengthen their "mental skills" in order to maximize their performance.
-
-
what is this? a Simpsons greatest hits episode?
- Écrit par bigkiddreams le 2021-09-05
Auteur(s): Andrew Aziz, Autres
-
Thinking, Fast and Slow
- Auteur(s): Daniel Kahneman
- Narrateur(s): Patrick Egan
- Durée: 20 h et 2 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global875
-
Performance686
-
Histoire679
The guru to the gurus at last shares his knowledge with the rest of us. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman's seminal studies in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, and happiness studies have influenced numerous other authors, including Steven Pinker and Malcolm Gladwell. In Thinking, Fast...
-
-
Very difficult to follow in audio format
- Écrit par Amazon Customer le 2017-10-06
Auteur(s): Daniel Kahneman
-
A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis
- Read the Book Then Read the Market
- Auteur(s): Anna Coulling
- Narrateur(s): Anna Coulling
- Durée: 8 h et 23 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global0
-
Performance0
-
Histoire0
What do Charles Dow, Jesse Livermore, and Richard Ney have in common? They used volume and price to anticipate where the market was heading and built their vast fortunes. For them, it was the ticker tape; for us, it is the trading screen. The results are the same and can be for you, too. I make no bones about believing I was lucky to start my trading journey using volume. To me, it just made sense. The logic was inescapable. And for me, the most powerful reason is very simple.
Auteur(s): Anna Coulling
-
The Almanack of Naval Ravikant
- A Guide to Wealth and Happiness
- Auteur(s): Eric Jorgenson, Naval Ravikant, Tim Ferriss - introduction
- Narrateur(s): Vikas Adam
- Durée: 8 h et 27 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global5
-
Performance4
-
Histoire4
Includes bonus audio featuring an exclusive conversation with Naval Ravikant. Getting rich is not just about luck; happiness is not just a trait we are born with. These aspirations may seem out of reach, but building wealth and being happy are skills we can learn. So what are these skills, and...
Auteur(s): Eric Jorgenson, Autres
Ce que les critiques en disent
"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world." –Marc Andreessen
“Outstanding.” –Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work." –Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge
"An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life." –Philip E. Tetlock, author of Superforecasting
"Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions. Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings--and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it." –Maria Konnikova, author of The Confidence Game and Mastermind
"The insights Duke offers in this book are incredibly helpful when we contemplate decisions in the face of multiple possible outcomes, and that renders her book enormously applicable to the world of investing." –Howard Marks, co-chairman, Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing
"Through wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line." –Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better
"Brilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good." –Seth Godin, author of The Icarus Deception
"A mind-bending and indispensable book for entrepreneurs, leaders, and anyone who faces risk on a regular basis." –Olivia Fox Cabane, author of The Net and the Butterfly
“A highly-readable balance between memorable, real-world analogies and hardcore behavioral science studies... The book is packed with insights.” –John Greathouse, Forbes
I'd recommend this book to others, but not to myself
Good first step, beginner level (don't go deep like NNT)
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.
She is very clear at the beginning of the book it is not a book about poker — there are many references to the decision process that happens while playing poker, but this is not a poker strategy book. It is a great introduction to the other books and case studies referenced throughout.
Good overview of decision making strategy
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.
Changed the way I view the way I make decisions
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.
going to listen again, right away!
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.
How to to break your personal projected narrative
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.