Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Échec de l'ajout au panier.
Échec de l'ajout à la liste d'envies.
Échec de la suppression de la liste d’envies.
Échec du suivi du balado
Ne plus suivre le balado a échoué
1 mois d'essai gratuit à Audible Standard
Acheter pour 23,58 $
-
Narrateur(s):
-
Joel Richards
-
Auteur(s):
-
Philip Tetlock
-
Dan Gardner
À propos de cet audio
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.
©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.Vous pourriez aussi aimer...
-
The Innovator's Dilemma, with a New Foreword
- When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail
- Auteur(s): Clayton M. Christensen, Marc Benioff - foreword
- Narrateur(s): L.J. Ganse, Jonathan Todd Ross
- Durée: 8 h et 23 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global2
-
Performance1
-
Histoire1
Offering both successes and failures from leading companies as a guide, The Innovator's Dilemma gives you a set of rules for capitalizing on the phenomenon of disruptive innovation. Sharp, cogent, and provocative—and consistently noted as one of the most valuable business ideas of all time—The Innovator's Dilemma is the book no manager, leader, or entrepreneur should be without.
Auteur(s): Clayton M. Christensen, Autres
-
Designing Machine Learning Systems
- An Iterative Process for Production-Ready Applications
- Auteur(s): Chip Huyen
- Narrateur(s): Kathleen Li
- Durée: 12 h et 55 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global1
-
Performance1
-
Histoire1
Machine learning systems are both complex and unique. Complex because they consist of many different components and involve many different stakeholders. Unique because they're data dependent, with data varying wildly from one use case to the next. In this book, you'll learn a holistic approach to designing ML systems that are reliable, scalable, maintainable, and adaptive to changing environments and business requirements. Author Chip Huyen, cofounder of Claypot AI, considers each design decision in the context of how it can help your system as a whole achieve its objectives.
Auteur(s): Chip Huyen
-
The Intelligence Trap
- Why Smart People Make Dumb Mistakes
- Auteur(s): David Robson
- Narrateur(s): Simon Slater
- Durée: 10 h et 19 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global16
-
Performance14
-
Histoire14
Smart people are not only just as prone to making mistakes as everyone else - they may be even more susceptible to them. This is the "intelligence trap", the subject of David Robson's fascinating and provocative book. The Intelligence Trap explores cutting-edge ideas in our understanding of intelligence and expertise, including "strategic ignorance", "meta-forgetfulness", and "functional stupidity."
-
-
Informative, clear and entertaining
- Écrit par Count Erklock le 2019-08-25
Auteur(s): David Robson
-
How to Make a Few More Billion Dollars
- Auteur(s): Brad Jacobs
- Narrateur(s): Brett Barry
- Durée: 5 h et 8 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global0
-
Performance0
-
Histoire0
In this sequel to his bestselling How to Make a Few Billion Dollars, renowned entrepreneur Brad Jacobs delivers a detailed playbook for mastering business success at scale. He explains how to partner with the smartest global investors, integrate acquisitions into cohesive profit engines, and build organizations where culture, compensation, and talent are perfectly aligned. How to Make a Few More Billion Dollars is both a practical how-to manual and a rich trove of insights you can apply to your own ambitions.
Auteur(s): Brad Jacobs
-
Noise
- A Flaw in Human Judgment
- Auteur(s): Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein
- Narrateur(s): Jonathan Todd Ross
- Durée: 13 h et 28 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global99
-
Performance72
-
Histoire71
From the bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! comes Noise, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias. Imagine that two...
-
-
Excellent. A critical read for professionals who exercise judgment!
- Écrit par Aaron T le 2023-02-06
Auteur(s): Daniel Kahneman, Autres
-
Building Applications with AI Agents
- Designing and Implementing Multiagent Systems
- Auteur(s): Michael Albada
- Narrateur(s): Nick Mondelli
- Durée: 12 h et 4 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global0
-
Performance0
-
Histoire0
Generative AI has revolutionized how organizations tackle problems, accelerating the journey from concept to prototype to solution. As the models become increasingly capable, we have witnessed a new design pattern emerge: AI agents. By combining tools, knowledge, memory, and learning with advanced foundation models, we can now sequence multiple model inferences together to solve ambiguous and difficult problems. From coding agents to research agents to analyst agents and more, we've already seen agents accelerate teams and organizations.
Auteur(s): Michael Albada
-
The Innovator's Dilemma, with a New Foreword
- When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail
- Auteur(s): Clayton M. Christensen, Marc Benioff - foreword
- Narrateur(s): L.J. Ganse, Jonathan Todd Ross
- Durée: 8 h et 23 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global2
-
Performance1
-
Histoire1
Offering both successes and failures from leading companies as a guide, The Innovator's Dilemma gives you a set of rules for capitalizing on the phenomenon of disruptive innovation. Sharp, cogent, and provocative—and consistently noted as one of the most valuable business ideas of all time—The Innovator's Dilemma is the book no manager, leader, or entrepreneur should be without.
Auteur(s): Clayton M. Christensen, Autres
-
Designing Machine Learning Systems
- An Iterative Process for Production-Ready Applications
- Auteur(s): Chip Huyen
- Narrateur(s): Kathleen Li
- Durée: 12 h et 55 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global1
-
Performance1
-
Histoire1
Machine learning systems are both complex and unique. Complex because they consist of many different components and involve many different stakeholders. Unique because they're data dependent, with data varying wildly from one use case to the next. In this book, you'll learn a holistic approach to designing ML systems that are reliable, scalable, maintainable, and adaptive to changing environments and business requirements. Author Chip Huyen, cofounder of Claypot AI, considers each design decision in the context of how it can help your system as a whole achieve its objectives.
Auteur(s): Chip Huyen
-
The Intelligence Trap
- Why Smart People Make Dumb Mistakes
- Auteur(s): David Robson
- Narrateur(s): Simon Slater
- Durée: 10 h et 19 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global16
-
Performance14
-
Histoire14
Smart people are not only just as prone to making mistakes as everyone else - they may be even more susceptible to them. This is the "intelligence trap", the subject of David Robson's fascinating and provocative book. The Intelligence Trap explores cutting-edge ideas in our understanding of intelligence and expertise, including "strategic ignorance", "meta-forgetfulness", and "functional stupidity."
-
-
Informative, clear and entertaining
- Écrit par Count Erklock le 2019-08-25
Auteur(s): David Robson
-
How to Make a Few More Billion Dollars
- Auteur(s): Brad Jacobs
- Narrateur(s): Brett Barry
- Durée: 5 h et 8 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global0
-
Performance0
-
Histoire0
In this sequel to his bestselling How to Make a Few Billion Dollars, renowned entrepreneur Brad Jacobs delivers a detailed playbook for mastering business success at scale. He explains how to partner with the smartest global investors, integrate acquisitions into cohesive profit engines, and build organizations where culture, compensation, and talent are perfectly aligned. How to Make a Few More Billion Dollars is both a practical how-to manual and a rich trove of insights you can apply to your own ambitions.
Auteur(s): Brad Jacobs
-
Noise
- A Flaw in Human Judgment
- Auteur(s): Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein
- Narrateur(s): Jonathan Todd Ross
- Durée: 13 h et 28 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global99
-
Performance72
-
Histoire71
From the bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! comes Noise, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias. Imagine that two...
-
-
Excellent. A critical read for professionals who exercise judgment!
- Écrit par Aaron T le 2023-02-06
Auteur(s): Daniel Kahneman, Autres
-
Building Applications with AI Agents
- Designing and Implementing Multiagent Systems
- Auteur(s): Michael Albada
- Narrateur(s): Nick Mondelli
- Durée: 12 h et 4 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global0
-
Performance0
-
Histoire0
Generative AI has revolutionized how organizations tackle problems, accelerating the journey from concept to prototype to solution. As the models become increasingly capable, we have witnessed a new design pattern emerge: AI agents. By combining tools, knowledge, memory, and learning with advanced foundation models, we can now sequence multiple model inferences together to solve ambiguous and difficult problems. From coding agents to research agents to analyst agents and more, we've already seen agents accelerate teams and organizations.
Auteur(s): Michael Albada
-
A Random Walk Down Wall Street (Completely Revised and Updated)
- The Best Investment Guide That Money Can Buy
- Auteur(s): Burton G. Malkiel
- Narrateur(s): George Guidall
- Durée: 13 h et 14 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global3
-
Performance3
-
Histoire3
In a time of rampant misinformation about ways of growing your money, Burton G. Malkiel’s gimmick-free investment guide is more necessary than ever. In this fully updated edition, Malkiel reveals how to be a tax-smart investor and addresses current investment trends, including factor investing, risk parity, cryptocurrencies, and ESG portfolios. A Random Walk Down Wall Street remains the best investment guide money can buy.
-
-
Worst narration ever
- Écrit par Utilisateur anonyme le 2026-03-25
Auteur(s): Burton G. Malkiel
-
Genesis
- Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit
- Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, Craig Mundie, Autres
- Narrateur(s): Byron Wagner
- Durée: 6 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global3
-
Performance3
-
Histoire3
As Artificial Intelligence (AI) becomes more dynamic and ubiquitous, it is dramatically empowering people in all walks of life while also giving rise to urgent questions about the future of humanity—a historic challenge whose contours and consequences are revealed by three eminent thinkers in...
-
-
Power, morality and the Future of Ai
- Écrit par Matthew le 2025-10-02
Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Autres
-
Agentic Artificial Intelligence
- Harnessing AI Agents to Reinvent Business, Work and Life
- Auteur(s): Pascal Bornet, Jochen Wirtz, Thomas H. Davenport, Autres
- Narrateur(s): Rory Young
- Durée: 14 h et 42 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global8
-
Performance7
-
Histoire7
This is a practical, non-technical guide for business leaders, entrepreneurs, and curious minds. This comprehensive guide on agentic AI cuts through the hype and offers a clear, jargon-free strategic roadmap to understanding and applying this technology. The authors bring a rare perspective, having implemented agentic AI across diverse organizations—from global enterprises to agile startups—witnessing both remarkable successes and sobering failures.
-
-
Good and controversial
- Écrit par AP le 2025-12-18
Auteur(s): Pascal Bornet, Autres
-
Fooled by Randomness
- The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- Auteur(s): Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Narrateur(s): Sean Pratt
- Durée: 10 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global241
-
Performance186
-
Histoire184
This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
-
-
9 hours of mindless blabbering
- Écrit par Bryden Panchyshyn le 2019-04-04
Auteur(s): Nassim Nicholas Taleb
-
Goals! Third Edition
- How to Get Everything You Want Faster Than You Ever Thought Possible
- Auteur(s): Brian Tracy
- Narrateur(s): Michael Tracy
- Durée: 6 h et 8 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global0
-
Performance0
-
Histoire0
Legendary time management and personal development expert Brian Tracy presents his simple, powerful, and effective system for setting and achieving goals. Each chapter introduces a principle key in reaching your goals, along with a toolkit full of both comprehensive insights and actionable steps.
Auteur(s): Brian Tracy
-
Factfulness
- Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World - and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
- Auteur(s): Hans Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund, Ola Rosling
- Narrateur(s): Richard Harries
- Durée: 8 h et 51 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global505
-
Performance425
-
Histoire424
Factfulness: The stress-reducing habit of carrying only opinions for which you have strong supporting facts. When asked simple questions about global trends - what percentage of the world's population live in poverty; why the world's population is increasing; how many girls finish school - we systematically get the answers wrong. In Factfulness, professor of international health and global TED phenomenon Hans Rosling, together with his two longtime collaborators, Anna and Ola, offers a radical new explanation of why this happens.
-
-
Helping you clear your head of the NOISE.
- Écrit par Anthony I le 2018-11-30
Auteur(s): Hans Rosling, Autres
-
Objections
- The Ultimate Guide for Mastering The Art and Science of Getting Past No
- Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Mark Hunter - Foreword
- Narrateur(s): Jeb Blount
- Durée: 5 h et 53 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global125
-
Performance91
-
Histoire89
Every salesperson must endure many NOs in order to get to YES. Objections don't care or consider: who you are, what you sell, how you sell, or if you are new to sales or a veteran. For as long as salespeople have been asking buyers to make commitments, buyers have been throwing out objections. And, for as long as buyers have been saying no, salespeople have yearned for the secrets to getting past those NOs. Objections is a comprehensive and contemporary guide that engages your heart and mind.
-
-
practical and honest
- Écrit par Mike le 2020-05-10
Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Autres
-
Oversubscribed
- How to Get People Lined Up to Do Business with You (2nd Edition)
- Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Narrateur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Durée: 6 h et 33 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global22
-
Performance17
-
Histoire17
Oversubscribed is the guide to transforming your business into one which customers fight over! Author Daniel Priestley, a successful entrepreneur who has built and sold businesses around the world, shares proven, real-world methods that will not only grab customers’ attention, but will also have them lining up to buy from you. This invaluable guide will teach you how to drive demand for your products or services far beyond supply and will dramatically increase the success of your business.
-
-
Excellent
- Écrit par D W le 2024-12-01
Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
-
The Beginning of Infinity
- Explanations That Transform the World
- Auteur(s): David Deutsch
- Narrateur(s): Walter Dixon
- Durée: 20 h
- Version intégrale
-
Au global80
-
Performance62
-
Histoire62
A bold and all-embracing exploration of the nature and progress of knowledge from one of today's great thinkers. Throughout history, mankind has struggled to understand life's mysteries, from the mundane to the seemingly miraculous. In this important new book, David Deutsch, an award-winning pioneer in the field of quantum computation, argues that explanations have a fundamental place in the universe.
-
-
enlightening book
- Écrit par Mark le 2019-08-11
Auteur(s): David Deutsch
-
A New Way to Think
- Your Guide to Superior Management Effectiveness
- Auteur(s): Roger L. Martin
- Narrateur(s): Stephen R. Thorne
- Durée: 7 h et 58 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global13
-
Performance9
-
Histoire10
Over a stellar career, Roger Martin has advised the CEOs of some of the world's most successful companies. From the beginning, he noted that almost every executive he talked to had a "model"—a framework or way of thinking that guided their strategy and activities. But these models tended to become automatic, so much so that when one didn't work, the typical response was just to apply it again—with greater enthusiasm.
Auteur(s): Roger L. Martin
-
Key Person of Influence
- The Five-Step Method to Become One of the Most Highly Valued and Highly Paid People in Your Industry
- Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Narrateur(s): Michael Maloney
- Durée: 4 h et 50 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global30
-
Performance25
-
Histoire25
Every industry revolves around Key People of Influence. Their names come up in conversation. They attract opportunities. They earn more money. Many people think it takes decades of hard work, academic qualifications and a generous measure of good luck to become a Key Person of Influence. This audiobook shows you that there is a five-step strategy for fast-tracking your way to the inner circle of the industry you love. Your ability to succeed depends on your ability to influence. Start now by listening to this audiobook.
-
-
powerful!
- Écrit par Amazon Customer le 2024-06-29
Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
-
Ready, Fire, Aim
- Zero to $100 Million in No Time Flat
- Auteur(s): Michael Masterson
- Narrateur(s): Sean Pratt
- Durée: 12 h et 10 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global63
-
Performance50
-
Histoire46
If you had the opportunity to work where, when, and with whom you wanted - all while getting paid very well - would you take it? Self-made multimillionaire and best-selling author Michael Masterson did, and with Ready, Fire, Aim he'll show you how to do the same.
-
-
The book is written for the sake of writing a book.
- Écrit par Public Name le 2024-09-22
Auteur(s): Michael Masterson
Overall, somewhat disappointing
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.
loved it
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.