BMO economist Robert Kavcic forecasts a "long and slow grind" toward housing affordability in Canada⁠⁠. Prices have fallen 17% from their 2022 peak, but remain unaffordable for many⁠⁠. Investors have exited the market, calling real estate "dead money" compared to equities⁠⁠, and Kavcic predicts prices will continue to decline, especially in the condo and rental segments⁠⁠.

• The current market favors buyers, with sellers more likely to lower prices than buyers are to pay more⁠⁠​GTA prices still falling
• Detached houses dropped 8% year-over-year and condos fell 3.8% in the Greater Toronto Area⁠⁠​Rental market concerns
• Pre-construction condo buyers facing higher mortgage rates are forced to rent instead of sell, which reinforces bearish rental market outlook⁠

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Trump's proposed ban on corporate landlords buying single-family homes with Canada's MLI Select program, arguing that financial incentives work better than bans for directing institutional capital toward building new housing supply.

• Policy Contrast: Trump's ban excludes new construction, potentially pushing institutional investors toward building rather than buying existing homes—inadvertently achieving what Canada's MLI Select program does deliberately through financing incentives
• MLI Select Mechanics: Canada's program offers 50-year amortizations and 95% financing for multi-family projects that score points for affordability, energy efficiency, and accessibility—making new construction more attractive than competing for existing homes
• Incentives vs. Bans: The fundamental lesson is that redirecting institutional capital through attractive financing works better than prohibition—creating alignment between investor profit motives and public policy goals without demonizing capital

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In this news episode we discuss how inflation-adjusted home prices have fallen back to 2017 levels, despite appearing stable nominally. Housing starts hit record numbers in 2025 but momentum is fading, with the Bank of Canada holding rates at 2.25%ahead of its January 28th decision. Meanwhile, inflation rose to 2.4% in December, with renters experiencing 4.9% annual rent growth while homeowners saw just 1.3% inflation.

• Real estate has lost real value: While home prices dropped only 4% year-over-year, inflation-adjusted prices are back to 2017 levels, with weak sales driven more by buyer hesitation than affordability.
• Housing construction momentum is fading: Despite 2025 being the fifth-best year for housing starts, the six-month average has been declining since September, with economic uncertainty pushing builders toward smaller projects.
• Renters face much higher inflation than homeowners: Renters experienced 4.9% annual rent growth in December—the fourth-largest jump since 1988—while homeowners saw only 1.3% inflation.

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