Predicting the Unpredictable: Energy and Geopolitics in 2026

This week, Peter and Jackie kick off the year with their 2026 outlook. They begin by asking a fundamental question: How relevant are predictions in an increasingly unpredictable world?

While acknowledging the limits of forecasting, they outline key themes and directional expectations for 2026—and remind leaders that, in times like these, scenario development, continuous monitoring, and course correction are far more valuable than rigid forecasts.

The discussion focuses on four major areas shaping the outlook for Canadian energy, spanning oil and gas and clean energy technologies:

• Global geopolitics and energy markets: examining how unfolding events in Venezuela and Iran—and ongoing tensions involving the United States, China, Russia, and Ukraine—could influence global energy markets.
• Oil and gas fundamentals: assessing the direction of oil prices and North American natural gas in 2026.
• Technology and disruption: exploring whether electric vehicles will regain momentum, how rapidly solar deployment will continue to scale, and whether projections for AI-driven energy demand will keep accelerating.
• Canada’s unique circumstances: politics, policy, and infrastructure—from climate policy and the Ottawa–Alberta memorandum of understanding (MOU) on an oil pipeline, to elections (and potential elections) to watch.

While predicting the future may be difficult, one thing Jackie and Peter are confident about is that the ARC Energy Ideas podcast will be here throughout the year—helping you navigate what is shaping up to be a consequential and eventful year for energy markets and geopolitics.

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This special episode analyzes the United States’ intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, and explores its broader implications for Canada and the Canadian oil sector.

Peter and Jackie open with a discussion of the geopolitical backdrop and the range of narratives circulating about the U.S. motivations for seizing and arresting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, including efforts to curb drug trafficking and illegal migration, and to counter the growing influence of China, Russia, and terrorist groups in the country. They also reference the U.S. National Security Strategy released in November 2025, which calls for a Western Hemisphere free from hostile foreign control and signals renewed enforcement of a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.

The Monroe Doctrine is a foundational principle of U.S. foreign policy, first announced in 1823, that set out the United States' view of the Western Hemisphere. General principles at the time held that European powers should no longer interfere in the Americas and that the Western Hemisphere was now the U.S. sphere of influence.

Peter and Jackie then turn to the oil market implications for Canadian oil. If sanctions on Venezuela were eased, increased Venezuelan heavy oil exports to the U.S. could intensify competition for Canadian oil on the U.S. Gulf Coast, which accounts for about 10% of Canada’s crude oil exports. The exports to Canada’s largest market, the U.S. Midwest, which makes up 70% of all exports, are more insulated.

The discussion concludes with an assessment of potential Venezuelan production scenarios, including the possibility of declining output, a pattern that has frequently followed similar government changes in the past. They conclude that, in any scenario, a clear takeaway for Canada is that building additional West Coast pipelines is critical. Diversifying export markets, strengthening economic resilience, and improving national sovereignty and autonomy are imperatives for Canada.

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We’re closing out the year with our final podcast of 2025, looking back at the biggest stories and revisiting the predictions we made at the start of the year. How did we do?

2025 delivered volatility and plenty of surprises, along with a long list of developments with real consequences for energy, both clean energy and traditional oil and gas. We cover major policy shifts, including the election of the Mark Carney Liberals in Canada, the introduction of Bill C-5, the launch of the Major Projects Office, the Ottawa–Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), and growing political support for LNG.

We also review changes in the United States, including tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), which rolled back many of America’s generous clean energy subsidies.

Another recurring theme this year was the surge in expectations for AI data center electricity demand—including in Canada, where three proposed projects in Alberta are moving closer to a final investment decision.

It’s been a whirlwind year. Jackie and Peter wish everyone a wonderful holiday break, and we’ll return in 2026.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• The Hub.ca, Have we really hit peak oil? Please don’t count on it (December 2, 2025)
• National Security Strategy of the United States of America (November 2025)

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Canada’s first cargo of LNG set sail from Kitimat, British Columbia, on June 30, 2025. This week on the podcast, Chris Cooper, President and CEO of LNG Canada, joins us to reflect on that milestone, walk through the project’s progress, and share his view of Canada’s long-term LNG opportunity.

Jackie and Peter asked Chris a wide-ranging set of questions, including: What was going through your mind as the first carrier departed? What does the workforce on-site look like today, and are workers living locally or in camps? What are the practical logistics of bringing LNG tankers in and out of the facility and navigating the Douglas Channel? Is the plant operating at full capacity yet? How would you characterize the current level of support from the B.C. provincial government? How significant was Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trip to Asia to sell Canada’s potential for LNG growth, and what did it mean to see LNG Canada Phase 2 included among the projects that were referred to the Major Projects Office? Finally, how does Canadian LNG stack up against other global supply sources, and what do you see as the outlook for worldwide LNG demand?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Steven Guilbeault Speaks to CTV’s Power Play with Vassy Kapelos (December 4, 2025)
• Clean Prosperity study that the Federal-Alberta MOU can unlock $90 billion in low-carbon investment if governments follow through (December 4, 2025)
• Photos of the LNG Canada work camp at Cedar Valley Lodge
• Shell LNG Outlook 2025

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A memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Alberta and the Canadian federal government was signed on November 27, 2025. It declared a shared goal of making Canada a global energy superpower by building one or more privately financed oil pipelines, co-owned with Indigenous Peoples, to ship at least 1 million barrels per day of low-emission Alberta bitumen, prioritizing routes to Asian markets, and submitting an application to the Major Projects Office by July 1.

Building the pipeline requires building the large-scale oil sands Pathways carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. Alberta and the federal government will also engage with the Government of British Columbia on the pipeline initiative.

Among other commitments, the MOU pledges to suspend the Canadian Electricity Regulations (CER) as they apply to Alberta and to scrap the proposed nationwide oil and gas emissions cap for producers. Further details are expected to be finalized by April 1.

To unpack this tectonic shift in Alberta–Ottawa relations—along with the first wave of media coverage and the deal’s potential benefits for Canada —Peter and Jackie are joined by guest Deborah Yedlin, President and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (November 27, 2025)
• Angus Reid Institute Polling on Support and Opposition for Alberta-BC Pipeline (November 27, 2025)
• CBC At Issues Panel on Carney’s Alberta Pipeline Partnership (November 28, 2025)

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This week on the podcast, we dig into a new report on renewable growth in Canada, “Canada’s Renewable Energy Market Outlook 2025”, a joint study by Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors and the Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA).

To unpack the findings and the broader state of renewables in Canada, we’re joined by Leonard Kula (Vice President of Policy – Eastern Canada and Utility Affairs, CanREA), Ahmed Hanafy (Partner, Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors), and Vittoria Bellissimo (President and CEO, CanREA).

Peter and Jackie asked our guests: What are your expectations for growth in Canadian electricity demand through 2035 and 2050? How does demand from AI data centers contribute? As intermittent renewable generation rises, do you see technical limits, such as reliability, that put a ceiling on growth? Do project developers source the wind turbines and solar modules from China, and should Canada push for more domestic content? Do renewables face issues with “not in my backyard” (NIMBYism)? Can renewables contribute meaningfully to meeting the fast-growing demand from data centers, which need near-perfect levels of reliability? Do you expect renewable energy growth in Alberta, given the market changes that have weakened the investment case?

Content referenced in this podcast includes:

• Bell: Go time! Danielle Smith and Mark Carney agree to a pipeline deal - Calgary Herald (November 22, 2025)

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This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter break down the Canadian government’s latest release of nation-building projects. The second tranche includes a major LNG export development, Ksi Lisims LNG, along with a new electricity transmission line in Northwest B.C., three mining projects, and plans for a Northwest Critical Conservation Corridor.

They then turn to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2025, which reintroduces the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) after a five-year hiatus. The CPS examines how global energy demand evolves under existing policies and shows oil and gas consumption continuing to grow through 2050. The report also highlights the energy requirements of rapidly expanding AI data centers. Jackie and Peter debate how this surge in load will be met—and which energy sources are most likely to power it.

Content referenced in this podcast includes:

• Prime Minister Carney announces second tranche of nation-building projects referred to the Major Projects Office (November 13, 2025)
• IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 (November 12, 2025)
• Open Circuit Podcast (November 7, 2025)
• The Stargate Project (January 2025)
• How Meta’s Data Centers Drive Economic Growth Across the US (November 7, 2025)
• US electric vehicle sales slow as Trump champions petrol (November 13, 2025)

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This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter share their insights on Canada’s 2025 federal budget, released last week and expected to pass on November 17. They also briefly introduce the topic of COP30, which started the day they recorded, and Bill Gates’ recent memo on climate.

They discuss several aspects of the budget, including the size of the deficit and debt, government plans to reduce day-to-day operating expenses, and several tax measures—notably, new Productivity Super Deduction and the updated accelerated capital cost depreciation rules for LNG, which are supportive, but still less generous than the Productivity Super Reduction.

They also examine the introduction of new investment tax credits (ITCs) for clean energy. These incentives were largely anticipated, having been announced in the previous budget but never enacted.

A major focus is the proposed Canada Climate Competitiveness Strategy, which aims to strengthen industrial carbon pricing while preventing carbon leakage. Jackie and Peter explore related policy commitments, including maintaining methane-reduction regulations and the Clean Electricity Regulation, along with signals of possible flexibility around the removal of the oil and gas emissions cap. However, they note that such flexibility may depend on the deployment at scale of carbon capture and storage, which remains uncertain.

Content referenced in this podcast includes:

• Canada Budget 2025
• Bill Gates Memo “Three tough truths about climate” (October 2025)
• The Hub.ca article by Trevor Tombe “There’s a big gap between rhetoric and reality” (November 2025)

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