Canadians voted for Mark Carney and the Liberal government on April 28th, 2025. In his victory speech, Prime Minister Carney asserted, "It's time to build Canada into an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy."

This week's podcast delves into the election results and its potential impact on Canadian energy with guest Greg Lyle, the founder and President of Innovative Research Group, a full-service market research firm with offices in Vancouver and Toronto.

Peter and Jackie discussed several topics with Greg, including surprises in the election results, how the Liberal minority government could collaborate with other parties to pass legislation, and the potential future direction of energy policy based on the Liberal platform and Prime Minister Carney's post-election statements. They also explored possible support for LNG export facilities, clean energy initiatives, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects like the Oil Sands Pathways Alliance project. Additionally, they considered proposals from the Liberals and industry to amend the Impact Assessment Act (Bill C-69), aiming to expedite decision timelines for project approvals.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Letter from Canadian energy CEO’s to Mark Carney (April 30, 2025) “Build Canada Now: Energy CEOS to the Prime Minster of Canada: An Urgent Action Plan to Strengthen Economic Sovereignty”

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This week, our guest is John Kousinioris, President and CEO of TransAlta, one of Canada's largest power generators. TransAlta owns, operates, and develops a diverse fleet of electrical power generation assets in Canada, the US, and Western Australia, producing electricity from renewable sources and thermal generation.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked John: What are the reasons behind TransAlta’s merger with TransAlta Renewables? What are your expectations for electricity load growth in North America, and how will AI data centers impact demand? Does TransAlta have plans for new investments to meet data center demand? Are there risks to electric system reliability due to fast data center growth? Are there supply chain bottlenecks for new generation projects, and do tariffs compound the issue? What are your perspectives on Alberta’s plan to redesign its electricity market? Do you see merit in building an east-west electricity grid in Canada?

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

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LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute

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This week, Peter and Jackie discuss the latest news on the Canadian federal election, including takeaways from the leaders' debate on April 17th and the platform released by the Liberal Party on April 19th. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) had not yet released a full platform document at the time of recording.

Next, they provide an update on investment in clean energy. Equity values of publicly traded clean energy companies have fallen for the past four years (as measured by WilderHill Clean Energy ETF). At the same time, based on research by BloombergNEF, the sector registered an increase of 11% in new investment in 2024. The market is becoming bifurcated, with investment in mature and profitable technologies growing, and investment in emerging technologies, which are more dependent on government policy support, declining. Peter and Jackie also discuss China's dominance in clean energy technology manufacturing and the impact that US tariffs could have on clean energy globally, considering China’s strong position and outlook for continuing expansion.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Yale Budget Lab’s estimate of the US effective tariff rate (April 15)
• Liberal Platform (released April 19, 2025)
• BloombergNEF Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025 Edition
• White House Executive Order “Protecting American Energy from State Overreach” (April 8, 2025)
• Dan Yergin and Atul Arya “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward,” Foreign Affairs (March/April 2025)
• Nat Bullard Annual Presentation (see slide 135 for China’s exports to the US, EU, and Global South)

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

Check us out on social media:

X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst
LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute

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