Predicting the Unpredictable: Energy and Geopolitics in 2026

This week, Peter and Jackie kick off the year with their 2026 outlook. They begin by asking a fundamental question: How relevant are predictions in an increasingly unpredictable world?

While acknowledging the limits of forecasting, they outline key themes and directional expectations for 2026—and remind leaders that, in times like these, scenario development, continuous monitoring, and course correction are far more valuable than rigid forecasts.

The discussion focuses on four major areas shaping the outlook for Canadian energy, spanning oil and gas and clean energy technologies:

• Global geopolitics and energy markets: examining how unfolding events in Venezuela and Iran—and ongoing tensions involving the United States, China, Russia, and Ukraine—could influence global energy markets.
• Oil and gas fundamentals: assessing the direction of oil prices and North American natural gas in 2026.
• Technology and disruption: exploring whether electric vehicles will regain momentum, how rapidly solar deployment will continue to scale, and whether projections for AI-driven energy demand will keep accelerating.
• Canada’s unique circumstances: politics, policy, and infrastructure—from climate policy and the Ottawa–Alberta memorandum of understanding (MOU) on an oil pipeline, to elections (and potential elections) to watch.

While predicting the future may be difficult, one thing Jackie and Peter are confident about is that the ARC Energy Ideas podcast will be here throughout the year—helping you navigate what is shaping up to be a consequential and eventful year for energy markets and geopolitics.

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This special episode analyzes the United States’ intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, and explores its broader implications for Canada and the Canadian oil sector.

Peter and Jackie open with a discussion of the geopolitical backdrop and the range of narratives circulating about the U.S. motivations for seizing and arresting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, including efforts to curb drug trafficking and illegal migration, and to counter the growing influence of China, Russia, and terrorist groups in the country. They also reference the U.S. National Security Strategy released in November 2025, which calls for a Western Hemisphere free from hostile foreign control and signals renewed enforcement of a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.

The Monroe Doctrine is a foundational principle of U.S. foreign policy, first announced in 1823, that set out the United States' view of the Western Hemisphere. General principles at the time held that European powers should no longer interfere in the Americas and that the Western Hemisphere was now the U.S. sphere of influence.

Peter and Jackie then turn to the oil market implications for Canadian oil. If sanctions on Venezuela were eased, increased Venezuelan heavy oil exports to the U.S. could intensify competition for Canadian oil on the U.S. Gulf Coast, which accounts for about 10% of Canada’s crude oil exports. The exports to Canada’s largest market, the U.S. Midwest, which makes up 70% of all exports, are more insulated.

The discussion concludes with an assessment of potential Venezuelan production scenarios, including the possibility of declining output, a pattern that has frequently followed similar government changes in the past. They conclude that, in any scenario, a clear takeaway for Canada is that building additional West Coast pipelines is critical. Diversifying export markets, strengthening economic resilience, and improving national sovereignty and autonomy are imperatives for Canada.

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LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute

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We’re closing out the year with our final podcast of 2025, looking back at the biggest stories and revisiting the predictions we made at the start of the year. How did we do?

2025 delivered volatility and plenty of surprises, along with a long list of developments with real consequences for energy, both clean energy and traditional oil and gas. We cover major policy shifts, including the election of the Mark Carney Liberals in Canada, the introduction of Bill C-5, the launch of the Major Projects Office, the Ottawa–Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), and growing political support for LNG.

We also review changes in the United States, including tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), which rolled back many of America’s generous clean energy subsidies.

Another recurring theme this year was the surge in expectations for AI data center electricity demand—including in Canada, where three proposed projects in Alberta are moving closer to a final investment decision.

It’s been a whirlwind year. Jackie and Peter wish everyone a wonderful holiday break, and we’ll return in 2026.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• The Hub.ca, Have we really hit peak oil? Please don’t count on it (December 2, 2025)
• National Security Strategy of the United States of America (November 2025)

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

Check us out on social media:

X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst
LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute

Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast
Apple Podcasts
Amazon Music
Spotify