Did Wall Street predict the 2025 market boom, or did they miss the mark?

In this episode of the Capital Stewards Podcast, we are "keeping the receipts." We look back at the forecasts made at the end of 2024 by major firms like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, UBS, and PIMCO—as well as our own internal outlook—to see how they stacked up against reality.

From the "K-shaped" economy and the massive AI CapEx build-out to the surprise performance of International stocks and Gold, we break down what the experts got right and where they completely missed the boat.

In this episode, we cover:

The Economy: Why the recession didn't happen and how AI saved the GDP numbers.

The Stock Market: S&P 500 targets vs. reality (6800+), and the failure of the "broadening rally" thesis.

Bonds & Rates: Did PIMCO make the right call on fixed income?

The Big Surprise: The asset class that rallied over 50% this year.

The Lesson: Why portfolio construction matters more than crystal ball gazing.

The point of this exercise isn't to poke fun at analysts, but to demonstrate the humility required to be a successful long-term investor. If the biggest banks in the world can't predict the short term, how should you build your portfolio?

👇 Chapters:

0:00 - Intro: Keeping the Receipts

1:15 - The 2025 Economy: AI vs. The Real Economy

3:28 - Economic Forecasts (Goldman, JPM, Wells Fargo)

7:05 - The Stock Market: S&P 500 Predictions vs. Reality

9:42 - International Stocks

10:45 - The Bond Market: PIMCO, BlackRock & Rates

12:55 - Gold: The Top Performing Asset of 2025

13:55 - Why We Listen to Outlooks (Despite the Misses)

15:10 - How to Build a Portfolio Without a Crystal Ball

17:35 - Looking Ahead to 2026

🔔 Subscribe for our upcoming 2026 Outlook Episode!

Start A Conversion with Capital Stewards: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

Are "alternative investments" like Private Equity and Venture Capital the secret to building wealth, or are they just complicated hype?

In this episode, we break down everything you actually need to know. We ditch the "alternative" label and re-categorize these investments by the job they do for your portfolio: driving growth or providing diversification.

We also debunk the biggest myth in investing: the idea that private assets have low risk. We'll show you why that "low volatility" is a statistical illusion and why assets like private equity carry just as much risk as the stock market.

Join us as we cover:

The "J-Curve": Why you lose money before you make it.

Manager Selection: The massive (and critical) difference between a top-tier manager and an average one.

The Liquidity Trap: The truth about new "liquid" interval funds.

401(k)s: Should you really hold these in your retirement plan?

Capital Stewards is a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor in headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama serving clients throughout the southeast.

Start A Conversion with Capital Stewards: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

Tax time is NOW, not in March of next year. Once we turn the page to next year, your ability to reduce your taxes and take advantage of some of these strategies will be gone! In our year end planning tips episode, I breakdown 10 strategies for you to consider before we close out 2025.

1) Why you need Tax Projections

2) Retirement Account Planning and Contributions for IRAs and 401(s)

3) ROTH Conversions

4) Flex Spending Accounts

5) Saving Taxes with Health Savings Accounts (HSAs)

6) Avoiding Mutual Fund Distributions / "Phantom" Distributions

7) Tax Loss Harvesting

8) Income Planning

9) Charitable Giving Strategies

10) Portfolio Rebalancing – Avoiding a big drawdown.

Start A Conversion with Capital Stewards: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

There are a lot of questions on the minds of investors. Usually after a big market gains like we experienced over the summer, everyone is happy and thinks things are going great. But I hear a lot of concerns from folks on a regular basis this time around. I think that’s warranted because we are living in a world with two different economies running simultaneously. One is in a recession. The other is partying like it’s 1999. How we invest wisely based on what’s really happening is going to be very important over the next few months and into 2026.

In this outlook, we’re going to talk about the gains we have seen so far this year and whether we are in a market bubble. I’m also going to help you resolve the difference between your feelings about the economy and what you are seeing in your portfolio – because what you feel may not be what you’re experiencing in your investments. As always, I will share my views on the stock market, interest rates, the Fed, inflation, real estate and other assets like Gold.

Would you like to connect?

https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

Today we’re diving deep into one of the most important—and often misunderstood—pillars of retirement planning: Social Security.

Whether you’re a few years from retirement or already mapping out your retirement income strategy, understanding how Social Security works—and how to optimize it—can make a six-figure difference over your lifetime. We’ll cover everything from when to claim to spousal benefits to tax implications. So Lets Dive in.

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed

Are we in a stock market bubble? The market certainly “feels” overvalued relative to our experiences in the economy day in and day out. The phrase "stock market bubble" is in the media a lot and many of our clients and friends have asked me the magic question – are we in a stock market bubble? Is this irrational exuberance or is it rational growth? So on this episode we will talk about where things stand relative to past bubbles, and I’ll answer the questions no one seems to want to answer on the record – are we in a bubble?

Have Questions? Want to Talk?

https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

It’s back-to-school time at our house so this episode is all about education planning and paying for college. I hear so many question about college planning:

How do I guide my kids to choose the right school? Or no school at all? Is college worth it?

How do I save money for college? How should I pay for college once they enroll in their dream school?

In this episode I cover the framework you should consider using to make smart choices about college. Then we dive into tax smart college savings strategies and the nuts and bolts of paying for college. Plus, in 2025, there are a lot of changes for education funding, 529s, and student loans in the One Big Beautiful Bill. So it’s a great time to make an education plan or reevaluate your existing financial plan for education.

Have questions or want to connect to discuss?

https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

It’s all about the One Big Beautiful Bill on this episode of the Capital Stewards Podcast. Some would say it’s the hugest, most beautiful bill ever. Well, we will talk about that. Will it be good for the economy? What about the deficit? Is it $4 Trillion in deficit spending or something less? In the second half of the episode, I’ll cover what the Big Beautiful Bill means for your taxes and what tax planning steps you should be thinking about before we head into 2026.

© 2025 Capital Stewards, LLC. Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.