
2025 9-10 matters of Democracy
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Key political takeaways reveal strong Democratic electoral performance in recent special elections, suggesting high voter enthusiasm. In Virginia's 11th District, a Democratic win significantly overperformed the district's baseline, narrowing the Republican House majority to a precarious 219-213 margin. Polling data indicates potential primary challenges for established figures like Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and strong positioning for Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race. Concurrently, the Trump administration's actions are portrayed as strategically incoherent and politically motivated. Incidents such as an ICE raid on a Hyundai plant in Georgia, the potential cancellation of the Combined Federal Campaign for charity, and the politicization of a murder in Charlotte are presented as tactical missteps that undermine broader policy goals. Furthermore, the Supreme Court continues to issue rulings favorable to the administration's assertions of executive power, though landmark substantive decisions are still pending.
On the economic front, an analysis by economist Daniel Lacalle argues that developed economies, including the United States, United Kingdom, and the Euro area, are caught in a cycle of "secular stagnation." This is attributed to excessive money supply growth being absorbed by unproductive government spending, which crowds out private investment. Despite record money supply levels—$22 trillion in the U.S. and $123 trillion globally—real GDP growth remains anemic, and the multiplier effect of monetary stimulus is negligible. This trend fuels record global public debt, which reached $102 trillion in 2024, and leads to persistent inflation and weak growth, a pattern the U.S. is warned against replicating.