#319: Market Update June 2025 – Darwin Returns to 2014 Peak, Canberra’s Top End Climbs, & Listings Drop Nationwide
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#319: Market Update June 2025 – Darwin Returns to 2014 Peak, Canberra’s Top End Climbs, & Listings Drop Nationwide
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In this latest market update episode, Mike and Cate go duo as Dave hits the road with his family. Despite Dave's absence, the June market update is packed with insights and trends, although we do miss the lending data from Dave in this ep.
🏡 Capital City Highlights
The national market edged up in June, with every capital city posting gains except Hobart (down 0.2%). Darwin led the charge with a 1.5% monthly gain across dwellings, and houses jumped 1.8%, pointing to renewed investor interest. However, only 31% of Darwin’s suburbs are at their peak – suggesting targeted activity in a few suburbs rather than widespread growth.
📈 Unit Surge or Blip?
Cate and Mike unpack a surprise in the data – units outperformed houses in Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and Adelaide. Is this a turning point for apartments, or just a one-month spike? Cate shares boots-on-the-ground experience from Melbourne, where yields over 5% are tempting investors back into the unit market. Affordability, lifestyle trade-offs, and post-COVID sentiment shifts are driving demand. Another key find is the stratification of sales prices in the various capital cities. This month, Canberra defies the 'norm' and exhibits stronger growth in the highest price quartile. What is going on in our nation's capital? Tune in to find out.
💰 Rental Yields & Investor Trends
Rental growth has steadied nationally, with gross yields at 3.7%. Darwin is the standout with 6.5% yields and regional NT pushing a massive 7.7%. Cate suggests investors may be pushing up rents post-renovation or after long-standing leases end. Meanwhile, Melbourne’s rental growth remains sluggish at just 1.2% annually – possibly a story more about the past exodus of investors than current conditions.
📉 Listings Drop, Pressure Builds
New listings are down 11.7% compared to last year, with Hobart and Darwin seeing declines over 30%. Cate explains why tight listings don’t always mean easy buying – buyer fear of missing out leads to irrational behaviour, and competition ramps up even when the market feels slow. She also highlights the buyer activity driving Melbourne’s numbers, even if it’s not yet obvious in CoreLogic’s top-line data.
📊 Segmented Market Action
The trio (duo) dive into price segmentation and why it matters. Melbourne’s heat is coming from the $600k–$800k range, particularly in suburbs like Frankston, Werribee, and Sunbury. It’s a case of high activity in lower-price markets dragging down median figures – which might explain why data lags what buyer advocates see on the ground.
Another key find in the stratification of sales prices in the various capital cities relates to Canberra. This month, Canberra defies the 'norm' and exhibits stronger growth in the highest price quartile. What is going on in our nation's capital? Tune in to find out.
🌏 Big Picture Forces
They wrap up with macro themes: inflation, global uncertainty, interest rates, and shifting sentiment. The RBA’s rate pause caught many off guard, impacting buyer confidence. But with bond markets still pricing in cuts and global instability nudging investors toward bricks and mortar, the property market remains in motion.
Lastly, Cate and Mike marvel at Darwin's growth, however they chat about the surprising percentage of suburbs within the star-capital that are yet to reach their peak for capital growth. They try to uncover what this surprising set of statistics could actually be telling us.
Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/?p=1735
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