Australia's international education sector is heading for a decade of stagnation with growth projected at just 2% annually through 2030 - a dramatic fall from nearly 10% pre-pandemic growth. Conrad and Eden examine how Australia's increasingly restrictive policies are reshaping the global education landscape while New Zealand pursues an aggressive expansion strategy.

Key developments discussed:

Australia has introduced the world's most expensive student visa fees at $2,000 AUD starting July 2025, alongside stricter English requirements and enrollment caps. The impact has been severe - VET and ELICOS visas have dropped 50% year-over-year, and English language courses now represent just 30% of international students, down from 50%. The new Genuine Student Test (GST) creates assessment barriers that favor larger universities over smaller VET providers, while disproportionately restricting growth from South and Southeast Asian markets.

Meanwhile, Australian universities have fallen an average of 238 places in global employer reputation rankings over the past decade, creating a skills mismatch crisis as students increasingly prioritize career outcomes when choosing destinations.

New Zealand is taking the opposite approach, announcing plans to double sector revenue by 2034 with 35,000 additional students. They've expanded part-time work hours from 20 to 25 per week, introduced multi-year visas, and fast-tracked visa processing for Indian students. The results show - New Zealand's post-pandemic growth is averaging 11% compared to Australia's projected 2%.

Sources

1. https://thekoalanews.com/how-bad-are-the-quality-problems-in-the-international-vet-sector/
2. https://www.qs.com/reports-whitepapers/australia-new-zealand-global-student-flows/
3. https://www.applyboard.com/applyinsights-article/australias-caps-refocus-student-demand-toward-university-programs