A CMO Confidential Interview with Dr. Joel Shapiro, Managerial Economics & Decision Sciences Professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern, formerly Varicent Chief Analytics Officer. Joel discusses his NFL study including why some teams handle injury better then others, the idea of finding variables which can't be seen by the naked eye, and his conclusion that resilience has a lot to do with planning, resource deployment and the foresight to think about potential problems. Key topics include: the importance of back-ups; the ability to find business problems that can be solved with data; and how to use data and AI to predict "bad stuff." Tune in to hear about the "percent cash wasted measure," and how Joel's class beat Las Vegas on predicting last year's NHL playoff teams.

**What NFL Injury Data Teaches Business About Resilience — with Joel Shapiro (Kellogg)**

Northwestern Kellogg’s Joel Shapiro returns to CMO Confidential to unpack a surprising finding: predicting player injury isn’t a “failed use case” — and the lessons translate directly to how leaders design resilient organizations. We cover the data model behind injury prediction, Joel’s “percent cash wasted” metric, the real effect of injuries on winning (including offense vs. defense), why backups matter, and how to build purposeful resilience across sales, supply chain, and leadership. Plus: a student project that beat Vegas and a fearless (and funny) Super Bowl take.

Chapters

00:00 Intro — Why this episode matters for executives

01:10 Joel’s remit: turning data & AI into business outcomes

03:19 Injury prediction isn’t a failed use case

05:45 Why the NFL: clean injury data and an 11-year dataset

07:32 What the model outputs: games likely to be missed

08:51 “Percent Cash Wasted”: paying for injured players

10:15 Do injuries really impact winning? The curve is flatter than you think

12:19 Offense vs. defense: wasted cash effects aren’t equal

13:47 Healthy one year, injured the next: who stays good?

14:36 The lever that breaks teams: losing a highly paid QB

15:25 Purposeful resilience vs. “toughing it out”

16:34 Backups matter — translating roster depth to business

18:29 If you can’t prevent every injury, recruit for availability

19:17 Business translation: resilience in sales, supply chain, and leadership

21:42 Treat resilience as strategy, not back-office insurance

24:22 Which companies are structurally resilient (and why scale helps)

24:49 Joel’s bold pick: the Bears’ weird start and a playful prediction

25:36 Data, betting, and integrity — what changes as information improves

27:25 Students vs. Vegas: NHL playoff models that won

28:20 How much data it really takes (rows, columns, and what matters)

29:54 Wrap and where to find more CMO Confidential

Tags

CMO Confidential, Mike Linton, Joel Shapiro, Northwestern Kellogg, data science, AI, predictive analytics, NFL injuries, sports analytics, resilience, business resilience, risk management, leadership, percent cash wasted, roster construction, backups, quarterback, offense vs defense, supply chain, sales teams, machine learning, predictive modeling, DraftKings, FanDuel, NHL, Kansas City Chiefs, Chicago Bears, C-suite, marketing leadership, podcast, YouTube chapters

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A CMO Confidential Interview with Michael Treff, the CEO of Code and Theory joins us for our 150th Show to share observations on the major forces impacting the B2B space. Michael details how "empowered buyers" are forcing sellers to increase focus on customer value creation and transforming marketing and sales from "leads to information" which is also shifting spending to capital expense. Key topics include: why the next AI frontier is customer experience; the need for companies to have both a long and short-term AI plans; why budgeting won't get any easier and; the gap between the CX problems and CX actions. Tune in to hear why you need to have an "AI plan for your humans" and learn if you need " a personalized relationship with your mustard."

CMO Confidential #150: Michael Treff on B2B’s Year-In-Review, What’s Next, and How AI Will Actually Drive Growth**

B2B is being rebuilt from the core. Michael explains why budgets are shifting from media to infrastructure, how the funnel is being rewritten by agentic search, and where AI must move from efficiency to growth. We also cover the KPIs that matter, budgeting realism for 2026, and three things every CMO should know by the end of next year. Sponsored by Typeface—the agentic AI marketing platform helping brands turn one idea into thousands of on-brand experiences. Learn more: typeface.ai/cmo.

**Chapters**

00:00 Intro + show setup

01:00 Sponsor: Typeface — agentic AI marketing, enterprise-grade & integrated

02:00 Guest intro: Michael Treff, CEO of Code and Theory

03:00 B2B landscape: investment shifts, changing journeys, disintermediation

07:00 From MQLs to value: sales enablement and end-to-end outcomes

10:00 Mid-roll: Typeface ARC agents & content lifecycle

11:00 Why suites win: implementation and value realization after the sale

15:00 AI phases: Wave 1 (efficiency) → Wave 2 (growth) pressures on agencies

17:00 CX as the bridge: measure outcomes, not vanity metrics

22:00 Roadmaps, humans, and culture—planning beyond point tools

26:00 Budget reality check: deliberation, polarization, and trade-offs

29:00 Personalization vs. business impact—what to fund and measure

33:00 By end of 2026: know your human plan, AI maturity, and new journeys

35:00 2026 prediction: the ROI vice tightens—agencies must be consultative

36:00 Closing advice: “Interrogate everything yourself.”

38:00 Wrap + where to find past episodes

39:00 Sponsor close: Typeface—see how ASICS & Microsoft scale personalization

**About our sponsor, Typeface**

@typefaceai is the first multimodal, agentic AI marketing platform that automates workflows from brief to launch, integrates with your MarTech stack, and delivers enterprise-grade security—named AI Company of the Year by Adweek and a TIME Best Invention. Learn more: typeface.ai/cmo.

**Tags**

B2B marketing, enterprise marketing, customer experience, AI marketing, agentic AI, marketing ROI, sales enablement, Code and Theory, Michael Treff, Mike Linton, CMO strategy, marketing budget, personalization, Martech, Typeface

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A CMO Confidential Interview with Evan Wittenberg, Chief People Officer of VuMedi formerly CPO of Ancestry and Box, Google's Head of Leadership Development, and a Saturday Night Live Page. Evan discusses why HR has become a much tougher position over the last 5 years, AI's negative impact on leadership development, and the similarities between marketing and HR. Key topics include: his belief that every function should have a dedicated people partner; why "the burden of proof" is often higher for marketers; why he always interviews for "learning agility;" and why "doing the job you are hired for is better for your career than trying for "the next job." Tune in to hear questions marketers should ask in an interview and a great behind the scenes story from SNL Season 18.

**What HR Really Thinks About Marketing — Evan Wittenberg (CPO) on CMO Confidential**

Four-time Chief People Officer Evan Wittenberg sits down with host Mike Linton to unpack the real relationship between HR and Marketing: decision rights, how DEI evolves, AI’s impact on entry-level careers, why hybrid work threatens apprenticeship, and what great CMOs do differently at the exec table. Evan also shares hiring signals (what CPOs look for now), the right way to use engagement surveys, and a live-from-8H SNL story you won’t forget.

**Guest:** Evan Wittenberg — CPO (VuMedi; ex-Box, Ancestry, Pivot Bio; Google/Wharton leadership)

**Host:** Mike Linton — former CMO (Best Buy, eBay, Farmers), CRO (Ancestry)

**Chapters**

00:00 – Welcome + sponsor message (Typeface)

02:00 – Evan’s background and today’s HR reality

03:30 – “Seat at the table” meets burnout and intractable problems

04:40 – Inside the COVID pivot: who owned it and why HR took point

06:10 – Should HR own cross-functional crises? Coordination vs. ownership

07:10 – HR ↔ Marketing parallels: everyone has an opinion, few have the brief

09:00 – Sponsor break (Typeface)

10:00 – DEI after the backlash: belonging, equity, and business need

11:30 – Pay parity and what still isn’t fixed

12:00 – AI’s real risk: erasing entry-level ladders and craft-building

13:30 – Hybrid work, lost apprenticeship, and how leaders must respond

15:10 – “People are our #1 asset” (or not): how to actually tell

16:10 – HR nirvana: solutions that serve both the company and the person

18:00 – How HR sees Marketing: service vs. business driver

21:10 – What great CMOs do: range (data ↔ creative) and business framing

22:40 – At the exec table: problem → data → options → choice → execution

24:20 – The higher burden of proof for HR and Marketing

24:40 – Should Marketing have a dedicated HR/People partner?

26:10 – What CPOs now screen for: learning agility

28:00 – AI fluency: no tourists, hands-on only

29:10 – Real collaboration vs. heroics and end-runs

30:40 – Due diligence for candidates: decision rights & cross-functional buy-in

33:00 – Extra interview questions worth asking (on both sides)

34:10 – SNL cold open rescue: the Rob Schneider story

38:30 – Career advice: do the job you have at 120%

40:00 – Sponsor close + sign-off

CMO Confidential, Mike Linton, Evan Wittenberg, Chief People Officer, CPO, HR strategy, Marketing leadership, DEI, diversity equity inclusion, belonging, employee engagement, pay parity, hybrid work, return to office, mentorship, apprenticeship, AI in HR, AI in marketing, entry-level jobs, recruiting, learning agility, collaboration, decision rights, org design, people partner, HRBP, Box, Ancestry, Pivot Bio, Vmed, Google leadership, Wharton, SNL story, Rob Schneider, executive team, business outcomes, brand vs performance, Typeface, marketing operations, C-suite leadership, career advice

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