Nomura re-enters U.S. commercial real estate lending after nearly three decades, hiring Barclays’ top CMBS team to fill the gap left by retreating banks. We break down what this means for borrowers with trophy assets, the near-$1B Marco Island resort sale testing luxury hospitality cap rates, and why CMBS distress still isn’t translating into forced sales. Plus, the CRE360 Take on how selective capital is reshaping deal flow.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve.
Governor Chris Waller said he supports a September rate cut, with the pace dependent on incoming data.
Markets are already pricing in a near-certain move. Futures imply a ninety-two percent chance of a twenty-five basis-point cut at the September seventeenth meeting.
The current policy range sits at four and a quarter to four and a half percent. Waller favors a gradual path down.
For real estate, the implications are direct. Rate relief lowers debt service, extends buyer underwriting, and accelerates a lending thaw that was already visible in the second quarter.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, originations jumped sixty-six percent year over year and forty-eight percent quarter over quarter.
In short, easier money could reopen the financing pipeline.

Today’s CRE360 Signal™ brief covered the state of U.S. capital markets. The lead story highlighted CBRE’s forecast that 2025 commercial real estate sales will reach $437 billion, about 10% above 2024 but still nearly 18% below pre-COVID norms. Supporting segments focused on tight but functioning credit markets, with June CMBS issuance falling to $0.9 billion, and rising cross-border capital flows, including Norway’s NBIM and Brookfield deploying billions into U.S. logistics and distressed opportunities.

The CRE360 Take emphasized that while financing remains costly, stability in interest rates and modest cap-rate compression are restoring deal flow. The Outlook pointed to inflation and Fed guidance as the key drivers to watch, alongside a shift toward one-off asset trades and global JV structures.