In this episode of Click Beta on Excess Returns, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, and Matt Zeigler dive into the trust crisis in markets, the implications of AI-driven CapEx, and how small lessons from life translate into investing wisdom. From the reliability of payroll data to the “bubbles all the way down” problem, the conversation blends deep market insights with practical rituals for navigating uncertainty.

Topics Covered

• The decay of institutional trust and unreliable economic data

• Public vs. private data and how investors should interpret it

• “Good news vs. bad news” in markets and earnings reactions

• AI-related CapEx, margin pressure, and the sustainability of Big Tech’s dominance

• Winner-take-all dynamics in AI and parallels to the fiber boom

• Productivity gains: small businesses vs. mega-cap tech

• Investing lessons from technical analysis, rituals, and “last box” routines

• The importance of presence, humility vs. hubris, and team culture

• Democratization of alternatives, fee/tax efficiency, and “hassle efficiency”

Timestamps
00:00 – The challenge of trusting economic data
03:13 – Who do you trust anymore?
05:07 – Public vs. private data and the “Strange Landing” thesis
07:38 – Good news, bad news dynamics
10:20 – Earnings estimates and labor data gaps
12:00 – AI-driven CapEx and narrow growth drivers
15:00 – Valuation multiples and eroding free cash flow margins
18:00 – Winner-take-all risks in AI
22:00 – Small business productivity vs. mega-cap adoption
27:00 – Rituals, technical analysis, and “the flush deck”
31:00 – Always say it out loud: transparency in investing
37:00 – Leadership lessons: presence, colleagues, and culture
45:00 – Democratization of alternatives and “hassle efficiency”
53:40 – Wrapping up: trust, skepticism, and humility

What happens when liquidity floods the system, narratives drive markets, and the international investing playbook gets rewritten in real time? In this episode of Click Beta, Cameron Dawson joins Matt Zeigler and Dave Nadig for a wide-ranging conversation that blends sharp macro insight with unfiltered commentary on global markets, thematic investing, valuation risk, and even concert etiquette. From the Mag 7 to Labubu toys to the Church of the SubGenius, this is finance as you've never heard it before.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• Why international earnings have flatlined since 2007 vs. 150% U.S. earnings growth

• The role of liquidity in driving asset prices and masking risk

• Whether dollar weakness could trigger an international bull market

• The earnings dynamics behind U.S. and European bank rallies

• Capital flows, tariffs, and the sustainability of international outperformance

• The search for a "liquidity killer" and the shadow finance risk

• Why thematic investing often masks lazy portfolio construction

• The behavioral case for income-focused investing (even when it makes no sense)

• The future of Total Addressable Markets (TAMs), cult brands, and cultural investing

• Cameron Dawson’s stance on standing at concerts—and why you should too

⏱️ Timestamps:

00:00 – Global earnings: U.S. vs. International and EM
02:00 – Ground rules and intro banter
03:30 – Why international investing is back in the conversation
06:00 – Earnings stagnation outside the U.S.
08:00 – Capital flows and the dollar’s role in international bull markets
10:00 – Are European banks investable again?
13:00 – The fairy tale of tariffs turning into CapEx
15:00 – Liquidity as the market’s ultimate panacea
18:00 – Shadow banking and the private credit risk stack
21:00 – Valuation as amplifier, not timing tool
23:00 – What could kill the liquidity narrative?
26:00 – Are clients chasing the wrong themes?
28:00 – The case against lazy thematic investing
32:00 – The Church of the SubGenius and embracing small TAMs
35:00 – Cultural signals, talismans, and deeper connections
38:00 – Why do income products exist? Exploring irrational demand
43:00 – Trust structures and gaming distributions
44:30 – Standing at concerts: A live debate
49:00 – The Ozzy Osbourne legacy and Tina Turner on meditation
51:00 – Where to find the hosts and guest online

In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Jason Buck, andDave Nadig dive deep into the paradoxical world of modern markets wheregeopolitical chaos meets relentless bullish sentiment. From potential World WarIII scenarios to AI companions whispering in your ear, the hosts explore whytraditional market logic seems to have taken a permanent vacation. They discusseverything from the "buy the dip" mentality that refuses to die, towhether behavioral finance textbooks should just be thrown in the trash. It's awide-ranging conversation that touches on energy shocks, the death ofdiversification, and why Gen X might reluctantly have to save us all. MainTopics Covered:

- Market Irrationality & Geopolitical Events

- Why bombing Iran led to markets going up instead of down,and the complete disconnect between headline risk and market behavior The Deathof Selling

- How retail conditioning and systematic flows have createda market where nobody wants to sell, even during potential global conflictsEnergy as the Real Risk

- Why oil price spikes worry the hosts more than stockmarket volatility, and what $250-300 oil could mean for the economy MinskyMoments & Wile E. Coyote Markets

- The hosts' framework for understanding when stabilitybreeds instability and how long markets can run on thin air InternationalMarkets Outperformance

- The surprising reality that US markets are actuallyunderperforming globally, and why Americans don't seem to care AI and theFuture of Cheating at Life

- Discussion of Cluey's $16M raise to help people cheat ateverything, and what this means for human authenticity Gen X as ReluctantElders

- How the generation that never wanted responsibility mighthave to step up to fix local communities The Mid-Tier Apocalypse

- Why everything is becoming either luxury or garbage, withnothing affordable left in between Behavioral Finance Reality Check

- Whether studying cognitive biases actually helps when evenDanny Kahneman admits he falls for them all