Why didn’t the long-predicted recession arrive? In this episode, we talk with Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, about why traditional macro models are breaking down and what investors are missing in today’s economy. Aahan explains why recession indicators have failed, how monetary policy transmission has changed, and what really matters in understanding economic risk right now.

We also explore how Prometheus uses a systematic approach to macro investing, why focusing on the present is more valuable than forecasting the future, and what their models revealed about the true impact of tariffs—before the market reacted. If you’ve been relying on the old playbook, this conversation will challenge your thinking.

Topics discussed include:

• Why recession indicators failed to predict this cycle

• The real risk behind the Liberation Day tariff panic

• How the Fed’s rate hikes lost their bite

• What’s changed in the economy’s sensitivity to rates

• Prometheus’ approach to stress testing and forecasting

• How Aahan translates macro data into portfolio strategy

• The behavioral traps investors fall into during macro shifts

Billions are moving through the stock market every day—but not for the reasons most investors think.

In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma breaks down the hidden world of options dealer flows and explains how concepts like gamma, vanna, and charm are silently shaping market behavior. Whether you’re a trader or long-term investor, understanding these behind-the-scenes forces is essential to making sense of today’s volatility.

We discuss:

• What dealer hedging flows are—and why they matter

• How options flows move billions without a fundamental trigger

• The role of gamma, vanna, and charm in stock price action

• Why expiration cycles often mark major market turning points

• Real-world examples: GameStop, Tesla, Nvidia, and the S&P 500

• What traditional investors miss by ignoring these dynamics

Even if you’ve never traded an option, this episode will change how you see the market.

In this episode, we speak with Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, about the firm’s 2025 Secular Outlook and the unfolding shift in global markets. Paolini argues that the era of U.S. exceptionalism is fading—and investors may be mispricing what comes next. We discuss why the “Great Convergence” could redefine asset allocation, what it means for U.S. equities and the dollar, and why now might be the time to lean into bonds and income-generating assets.

Paolini also shares his views on inflation, tariffs, AI, private markets, and the challenges of navigating a low-return, high-risk world. Whether you're a global macro watcher or a long-term investor thinking about regime shifts, this conversation offers a roadmap for the next five years.

Topics covered include:

• Why the U.S. may no longer deserve its valuation premium

• How debt and protectionism threaten global growth

• Why the next five years could see converging returns across regions and assets

• The investment case for bonds, credit, and emerging market debt

• AI’s impact on productivity and equity concentration

• The future role of gold, crypto, and private assets in portfolios