SPECIAL GUEST ALERT. We’re delighted to be joined on this week’s episode by Ebury’s Director of China Initiatives, Isabel Ye Qiu. The unveiling of President Trump’s tariffs has wreaked havoc with supply chains globally, particularly in China. How are businesses reacting? Can China keep its advantage over the rest of the region and how can Ebury assist in the current environment. Isabel tells us all!

In markets, the dollar sank following the release of another soft US payrolls report. What does the data tell us about the state of the world’s largest economy? And how will the Fed respond at its upcoming meeting next week?

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish surprise at the annual get together of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week. Has this effectively guaranteed a September rate cut from the FOMC? And what do fears over Fed independence mean for the US dollar?

Our analysts also dissect the latest encouraging business activity PMI figures out of the Euro Area, and break down the implications of last week’s worrisome UK inflation figures for both the pound and Bank of England interest rates.

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The EU has finally reached a trade deal with the US! But is this a bad deal for the European economy? How have markets reacted to the news? And what could this mean for ECB rates? We also discuss another batch of quite remarkable economic figures out of the US - could this delay the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts? And we again scratch our heads and try to figure out what’s going on with the pound, which continues to underperform most of its major peers.

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FX Talk has finally caught up with the times! After nearly five years of hiding behind microphones, honing our radio voices and bringing you audio-only episodes, we’re finally making the leap into the exciting world of YouTube. Brace for some questionable outfit selections, a few bad hair days, and an inevitable stray coffee spill or two.

In this week’s episode, we unpack whether the recent “sell America” trade is a thing of the past, attempt to unpack the implications of President Trump’s tariffs deadline and try to figure out what’s next for the pound as markets bet on more Labour tax hikes in the autumn. Our analysts also say whether they would buy, sell or hold the Australian dollar, which last week soared following the RBA’s unexpected interest rate hold.

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Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have dominated activity in currency markets in the past fortnight or so. The safe-haven dollar gained across the board as the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified, although news of a US brokered ceasefire has buoyed risk appetite and sent the greenback crashing to its lowest level in three years.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its June policy meeting, with FOMC members appearing divided over the path ahead for policy. Meanwhile, the latest data suggests that Britain’s labour market appears to be faltering, but what does this mean for the UK economy and the pound?

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The dollar has continued to lose ground against most major and emerging market currencies in the past few weeks. A US court ruling that deemed White House tariffs to be illegal has been delayed pending an appeal. Trade negotiations are ongoing, although these have failed to yield much progress thus far. Investors are also fearful that Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax bill could lead to a sharp increase in US debt in the next few years.

Thus far, however, the world’s largest economy is holding up remarkably well. Will a US recession be avoided in 2025? And what do the latest UK data surprises mean for the Bank of England and the pound?

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US tariff headlines continue to dominate the narrative in financial markets. Fears over a US recession triggered a sharp sell-off in US equities, Treasuries and the dollar last month. Yet, signs of progress in trade negotiations, particularly following the news of a US-China trade deal, have lifted optimism, and raised hopes that the economic impact of the tariffs will be less significant than initially anticipated.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by another 25 basis points last week. MPC members appear perhaps as divided as ever over the path ahead for UK rates. The bank’s communications were hawkish, however, suggesting that a “gradual” pace of cuts lies ahead. But, what does this mean for sterling?

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The US dollar collapsed to its lowest level in three years this week, with investors still reeling from the unveiling of (and subsequent delay to) President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Yet, with Trump and his top team softening their stance towards China, and the President backtracking on his calls to remove Jerome Powell from his position as chair of the FOMC, has the tide turned for the US currency?

We also look ahead to the release of next week’s highly important US GDP report. Is the world’s largest economy on course to post a shock contraction in the first quarter? And is a US recession inevitable in 2025?

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