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111: Center for REALTOR® Development 111: 2025 National & Local Market Outlook with Dr. Jessica Lautz from NAR: Part 2

111: Center for REALTOR® Development 111: 2025 National & Local Market Outlook with Dr. Jessica Lautz from NAR: Part 2

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 Welcome, friends, to the Center for REALTOR® Development podcast from the National Association of REALTORS®. We are here in Part 2 with my guest, Dr. Jessica Lautz from NAR. Dr. Lautz is the Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research at the National Association of REALTORS®. We are releasing this interview in two episodes. This is Part 2. Now, each one of these episodes stands alone, but we encourage you to start with Episode 1 or even go back to it for some more context. [1:10] Welcome back, my favorite data researcher! Thank you so much for being with me and with our listeners. I love how you get to talk to everybody around the country and share all the good scoop and help keep us informed. [1:25] Dr. Lautz says it’s a highlight of her job. She loves having boots on the ground, seeing what’s going on in local markets, what REALTORS® are feeling, and what the pulse is. Talking to people is important. [1:43] Monica recommends that listeners take the opportunity to go listen to Dr. Lautz and hear some of her great stories. [2:17] We’re going to talk a little bit more specifically about clients and client needs, especially our first time home buyers. The demographic has shifted. [2:40] Dr Lautz explores the data. First-time homebuyers are different today. First-time homebuyers have dropped to the lowest level the NAR has ever recorded, dating back to 1981. It’s just 24% of the market. In a healthy market, it would be 40%. [3:05] The 24% figure is an annual figure from last year. Monthly figures are ticking up, and this looks like it will be a better spring for first-time home buyers. [3:44] The median age of first-time homebuyers is now 38 years old. That’s an all-time high. The median age historically was 28. Housing affordability and lack of inventory are issues. [4:13] Saving for a down payment is also difficult because of higher rent, student loan debt, childcare costs, car loans, and inflation. [4:33] First-time homebuyers’ annual income has jumped by $26K in the last two years. The housing market has removed anyone with a lower income. Doctors and investment bankers will win out over first responders and schoolteachers. It’s a different type of first-time homebuyer. [5:25] First-time home buyers’ down-payment sources are different, too. They’re more likely to use financial assets like stocks, 401(k), and cryptocurrency. They are still using the bank of Mom and Dad. Inheritance use is also up. [6:50] Dr. Lautz says we are seeing a generational transfer of wealth. The use of inheritances is at an all time high, but still in the single digits. Some parents are passing wealth along while they’re still thriving. We have seen it come down, though. It may be uncomfortable for a 40-year-old to ask a parent for cash. [8:11] Dr. Lautz sees some 20-somethings and even Gen Zers coming into the market. Gen Z makes up 3% of the market. Young Millennials and Gen Zers may have learned from the mistakes of older Millennials who got graduate degrees. Some of that has to do with the Great Recession. [8:41] The big thing we’ve learned from today’s young buyers is that they’re willing to make some financial sacrifices, like living with parents for a longer time, not paying a huge rent. That allows them to earn homeownership sooner. [9:49] Dr. Lautz has found that when these young adults move into home ownership, half of them had been paying rent to family members they were living with. [10:37] How does a young adult build a credit portfolio while paying rent to parents and living at home? Dr. Lautz says that’s a good question! What about people working in the gig economy? Monica says we need to research that. [11:58] Dr. Lautz says there are fewer sales at the lower price points. She thinks that translates into fewer properties at lower price points. She is seeing growth in the luxury homes, or $1 million and up, sector. Home prices keep going up. Homes at lower price points may not be move-in ready. [13:00] An issue for first-time homebuyers is that lower-priced homes are not move-in-ready. First-time homebuyers are buying the oldest homes, in the worst condition, where they need to put in remodeling costs. That costs money. Unless you can DIY very confidently, you may have to hire someone to fix it. [13:27] That may not be the best use of money for a cash-strapped first-time homebuyer. [14:14] Dr. Lautz sees rental prices in a much better situation than in the last couple of years. In 2022, there were bidding wars for rental units. So then builders built a lot of high-end multi-family properties to meet the demand. Rental prices for a new lease have come down from where they were. [16:10] Dr. Lautz speaks of people wanting nicer amenities in their rental, while they save to buy a home. [16:42] We’re also seeing a growth in built-for-rent single-family homes. In ...

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