In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. From jobs data revisions and labor supply challenges to the Fed’s upcoming rate decisions, productivity, AI, and the outlook for portfolios, this episode is packed with insights advisors and investors can use right now.

Key Takeaways

• Jobs revisions: Recent downward adjustments highlight slowing payroll growth.
• Labor market: Supply shortages are keeping unemployment low despite weak hiring.
• Productivity: AI may boost output, but inequality risks remain.
• Fed policy: There’s a debate on whether cuts would stimulate the economy or actually drag it down.
• Tax refunds: 2025 policy changes could deliver a stimulus-like boost.
• Global opportunities: International equities could benefit from a weaker dollar.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Dr. David Kelly:

• Website: Dr. David Kelly

• LinkedIn: Dr. David Kelly

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Disclosure: Dr. David Kelly is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

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