Recording date: 8th July 2025

Olive Resource Capital's impressive 33% first-half return demonstrates the potential for focused mining investment strategies. The fund's success with three key holdings—Omai Gold Mines, Troilus Gold, and Sailfish Royalties—each delivering over 100% returns, validates the selective positioning approach within the mining sector. Troilus Gold's appreciation from the $30-39 range to $60-70 exemplifies the re-rating potential when mining companies execute development plans or benefit from improved market conditions.

Recent transactions, particularly Royal Gold's acquisition of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper, provide concrete valuation frameworks that reveal substantial upside in undervalued royalty companies. The Royal Gold-Sandstorm transaction establishes a concrete methodology for valuing royalty companies at approximately 88% of attributable gold ounces at current spot prices. This approach, focusing on deliverable resources with reasonable certainty, provides more reliable metrics than complex net present value calculations. Historical precedent supports this framework, with similar transactions ranging from 60% to 100% of spot gold value.

The 88% valuation metric to Sailfish Royalties reveals approximately 150% upside potential. Based on estimated deliverable resources from San Albino and Spring Valley projects, the company's fair value approaches $350 million, while currently trading at just under $150 million enterprise value. The presence of tier-one development assets may command premium valuations, as royalty companies particularly value growth opportunities on the path to production.

Understanding why more M&A doesn't occur reveals both challenges and opportunities. The complex process involves multiple failure points: unrealistic valuations, excessive management compensation demands, structural complexity, and hidden liabilities discovered during due diligence. These challenges protect against hostile takeovers but also create opportunities for investors who can identify logical consolidation candidates before market recognition.

The consolidation imperative creates specific investment opportunities: targeting royalty companies with tier-one development assets trading below M&A comparables, identifying management teams with proven M&A experience, and focusing on logical consolidation candidates in established mining districts. Failed transactions often create attractive re-entry opportunities, as companies trade down despite unchanged fundamentals.

The sector's fragmentation necessitates fewer, stronger companies rather than the current proliferation of small, poorly capitalized entities. Companies with experienced management teams capable of executing transactions may command premium valuations, while potential targets trading below fair value based on M&A comparables represent attractive opportunities.

The mathematical framework demonstrated by recent royalty M&A transactions provides investors with concrete tools for identifying undervalued assets and understanding catalysts that drive substantial returns. While M&A complexity creates execution risk, it also ensures that successful transactions often command significant premiums, benefiting investors who understand these dynamics and position appropriately.

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