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Speculation Rising, Breadth Weakening: A Tactical Rebalance

Speculation Rising, Breadth Weakening: A Tactical Rebalance

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This week’s episode covers:

  • U.S.–EU trade deal impact and the new 15% tariff baseline
  • Margin debt surges—5th fastest rise since 1998 (source: Deutsche Bank)
  • Fed and ECB hold steady, but tone remains cautious
  • Breadth weakening beneath the surface despite equity highs
  • Trimming gold, watching silver/platinum and volatility signals
  • July portfolio performance + positioning adjustments
  • What we’re watching: CTA trends, EMFX momentum, and central bank shifts

Referenced Sources:

Deutsche Bank Macro Strategy Notes

SentimenTrader Momentum/Breadth Indicators

MRB Partners EM Currency Research

Dantes Outlook internal trend models & analytics

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