Épisodes

  • #308: Darwin Under the Microscope - Will 2025 Mark the Return of Property Growth for Australia’s Most Affordable & Smallest Capital City?
    May 5 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    🎙️This episode was inspired by a thoughtful message from a listener who challenged us to dig deeper into Darwin’s property market after we referenced it briefly on a previous show. Some investment advisors are touting Darwin as their top pick for capital growth in 2025, so Mike takes the reins to explore if Darwin’s time in the spotlight is finally back.

    🏠 Why Darwin, and Why Now?
    Michael, one of our listeners, shared compelling on-the-ground insights about a surge in investor and buyers’ agent activity. From off-market sales and investor loans soaring in the NT, to Buyer's Agents reportedly purchasing 20+ properties per week—Darwin's market seems to be heating up fast. Cate reflects on the risks of artificial price uplifts when too many Buyers Agents flood a small market and shares her cautious optimism. Yes, Darwin has clocked over 1% monthly growth in both March and April, but as she reminds us—two data points don’t make a trend line.

    💬 Investor Buzz
    Recent growth figures are starting to align with Michael's anecdotal evidence. Darwin may finally be rebounding after an 11-year slump—longer than any other capital. But is it investor-fuelled, or is there something broader taking place in Darwin?

    📊 Data, History, and Economic Context
    Dave offers a reality check with stats: Darwin housing values are still 4.9% below 2012 levels. Despite high rental yields (the best in the nation), long-term growth has lagged, and the market’s small size adds volatility. Cate and Dave also explore the city's unique profile:
    • Population: ~150,000
    • Heavy reliance on public sector employment
    • Mining = 30% of NT's revenue
    • Home ownership below national average
    • Government stimulus and generous first-home buyer grants
    📉 Risk or Reward?
    Darwin’s rental yields and affordability are attractive, but economic diversity, investor saturation, and project delivery are key concerns. Cate shares the practical challenges of property upkeep from afar, while Dave reflects on the pitfalls of yield-chasing strategies.

    🔮 Will Darwin Shine in 2025?
    The Trio agrees: Darwin has had remarkable highs (second-highest median house price in the late 90s and early 2010s) and harsh lows. With strong early signals and renewed investor interest, it may be poised for a comeback—but sustainability is the real test.

    🎧 Tune in now for a balanced, data-backed, and researched discussion on whether Darwin is worth your investor attention in 2025.

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/05/05/listener-questions-darwin/
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    57 min
  • #307 - Analysing Ballarat’s Property Potential - The Pros, Pitfalls and Lifestyle Insights for Home Buyers and Regional Market Investors
    Apr 28 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    In today's episode, Mike and Cate tackle a great listener question from Brooke, who asks: "Is Ballarat a no-go for investors, and what about its long-term growth prospects?" With profits from their Perth house and a $690K budget, Brooke and her family are considering a move to regional Victoria — and Ballarat has caught their eye.

    The duo dive deep into why Ballarat remains one of Victoria's most attractive regional cities, offering both affordability and a high quality of life. But what should Brooke consider before making the move? And what are some of the interesting local things to note about this fabulous provincial city?

    💡 Why Ballarat? Cate kicks off by painting a compelling picture of Ballarat’s growth and appeal. With a population exceeding 122,000 and on the rise, Ballarat continues to attract both regional and metropolitan migrants. The city’s relative affordability, compared to Melbourne, combined with strong access to employment and education opportunities, makes it a top contender for families and investors alike.

    🏥 Key Industries & Employment Ballarat's economic backbone includes health services, education, advanced manufacturing, and decentralised government services. With a diverse and stable job market, it stands out as a regional powerhouse — bolstered further by hospitals, schools, and a university attracting students and professionals from across the country.

    📜 A Rich History Once a booming gold rush town, Ballarat was home to some of the world's richest alluvial goldfields. The city's prosperity led to grand architecture and impressive infrastructure — much of which still stands today, adding to its unique charm.

    💰 Investment Outlook Cate outlines the city's strong rental yields (often outperforming Melbourne), tight vacancy rates, and reliable demand — especially among university students and healthcare professionals on placement. She also highlights Ballarat’s appeal to “regional super consumers” as noted by demographer Bernard Salt, and how the shift to remote work is opening doors for tree-changers seeking lifestyle without sacrificing income.

    🏡 Living There & What $690K Buys For Brooke, who’s open to living in Ballarat, Cate and Mike discuss the lifestyle factors: good schools, a thriving food and wine scene, stunning public buildings, and fast rail access to Melbourne. She advises on buyer pitfalls to avoid, the importance of inspecting properties, and how to make the most of the "try before you buy" approach.

    🍻 Fun Fact During the gold rush, Ballarat had over 500 pubs! Today, around 50 remain — keeping the city’s vibrant social legacy alive.

    🚗 Weekend Tips Cate signs off with some tips for a Ballarat weekend getaway — from local cafes to wine country escapes.

    .... and our gold nuggets!

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: For anyone who is inquisitive about Ballarat, a weekend away can make a nice little experience. The city grid is walkable from the rail station and there are plenty of fun places to go for those who enjoy their food and wine.

    Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Making an investment dual-purpose isn't an easy task, but effective strategy can take an investor a long way when they are considering what their future opportunities may entail. As Mike says, "life happens."

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/04/28/listener-questions-ballarat/
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    44 min
  • #306: How to Increase Borrowing Power - How Kids, Rate Cuts and Variable Income Impact Property Buying Potential, Equity Access & Refinance
    Apr 22 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    In this episode, Cate and Dave dive into how life circumstances and interest rate changes directly impact borrowing capacity when borrowers are applying for a mortgage. Whether you're planning to start a family, waiting for a pay rise, or watching the RBA closely, this episode unpacks what it all means for your property plans.

    The episode begins by tackling a common question: how much do kids affect your borrowing power? Dave breaks it down with real figures. For a couple earning a combined $300,000, each child adds about $350 per month to living expenses under the Household Expenditure Measure (HEM), reducing borrowing capacity by roughly $35,000. But when you account for real-world costs—like childcare and private school fees—that impact can balloon to over $500,000 depending on your lifestyle choices. The takeaway? Kids can significantly reduce what lenders are willing to offer, especially if you're covering higher education costs.

    The conversation then turns to single parents, where Mike explains that HEM assumptions are more severe. Each child adds about $490/month to expenses, meaning a single applicant earning $150,000 may lose $60,000 in borrowing power per child. The financial pressure of being a solo breadwinner, combined with extra costs like babysitting or outsourcing household tasks, creates a tighter borrowing scenario compared to dual-income couples.

    Next, the Trio explore the effects of interest rate changes. The recent 0.25% RBA rate cut increased borrowing capacity by $20,000–$35,000 depending on income and household structure. Dave highlights that if further cuts come through—as expected—borrowing capacity could rise by as much as $150,000, opening access to higher-value properties and likely fueling further property price growth.

    Mike also dives into how income boosts translate into borrowing power. A $10,000 salary increase can add about $51,000 to your borrowing limit—roughly five times the pay rise. However, benefits taper off once you hit higher tax brackets. For couples, even if only one partner increases their income or returns to work, the gains can be substantial.

    Finally, Dave offers guidance for those considering waiting for a pay rise before buying. While higher income increases borrowing capacity, waiting too long in a rising market could mean missing out as property prices climb—potentially offsetting any gains from the salary bump. Whether you're starting a family, navigating single parenthood, feeling the challenges of lender servicing rules, or simply trying to get a better understanding of how banks assess incomes and assign borrowing capacity, this episode offers key insights to help you to navigate the lending steps more confidently and plan with clarity.

    .... and our gold nuggets!

    Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: "What are you prioritising?" Mike reflects on one Dave's comments about one of the most important things that a great, strategic mortgage broker will ask their client.

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Kids.... they are expensive. People are often hard on themselves when it comes to balancing building wealth and waiting it out while incomes are reduced while raising children. "Time with your kids is precious and they grow up really fast. Try to be kind to yourself."

    David Johnston's gold nugget: Borrowers should think about whether there is variability with their income. They should disclose this as clearly as possible with their strategic broker, because the better they understand how income is earned, the better they can assist their client. "A good strategic mortgage broker will ask you lots of questions."

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/04/22/increasing-borrowing-capacity-2/
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    53 min
  • #305: Market Update Mar 25 – Darwin Leads Growth, Melbourne Posts Another Increase & Interest Rate Uncertainty Amid Global Tariff Concerns
    Apr 14 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    This week, Mike and Cate tackle the data! Nationally, median dwelling values have strengthened, recording 0.4% for the month. But it is Darwin who's stolen the show with a full 100 basis points rise in March. Adelaide continues to impress, showing strong resilience. The Duo ponder the drivers behind the continued performance of the City of Churches and they also note that Hobart has been the only negative-performing capital city for the month.

    Cate highlights the difference between "all dwellings" vs "houses", and illustrates the importance of segmentation.

    Contrasting the long term performance of our two March extremes is interesting. Cate and Mike break down the past ten years' of dwelling values, noting that Hobart comes in at number three with a growth rate of 86.7%, whilst Darwin's ten year performance is negative at -1.0%.

    Regional performance is noteworthy too. Recent years have amplified regional growth, particularly following COVID. However, the top performers over the last twelve months are interesting. Central Highlands in QLD is home to a lot of mining towns, and the growth has the Duo questioning whether it's sustainable long-term.

    "Why has regional Victoria done so much better than Melbourne?" Cate walks the listeners through some of the challenges that Melbourne faced, and also some of the significant drivers over the COVID lockdown years throughout many different Victorian regions.

    Rents have almost normalised thanks to higher household formation rates and a slow-down on overseas migration. Most of our capital city house rental movement now sits within the target inflation band; a stark contrast from the heady past three years.

    Gross rental yields have been gradually increasing in some locations, particularly Melbourne, but Mike and Cate consider some locations around the country that currently deliver positive yield. Two include some parts of Darwin, regional NT, and some parts of regional WA. But as Cate eludes, reward and risk often go hand in hand.

    Total listings data is often intriguing when contrasted against "old listings". The data sourced from SQM suggests supply and demand is particularly imbalanced in Darwin this month. Old listings support the theory that buyers are purchasing 180-day+ stock aggressively. Like we saw for Perth in recent past years, could Darwin be exhibiting similar leading indicators for a surge?

    Unemployment remains tight and the most recent figures suggest the unemployment count is lower than anticipated.

    The last two weeks have been dominated by newsfeeds about Donald Trump's tariff controls, and markets have exhibited several shocks to say the least. Mike and Cate delve into some of the comments from our own RBA Governor, Michelle Bullock in response to questions about how Australia will fare. Specifically, the Duo cite some of Governor Bullock's remarks about inflation, interest rates and employment.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/04/14/ep-305-march-2025-market-update/
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    52 min
  • #304: How to Increase Borrowing Capacity - Strategies to Maximise Your Property Budget, Refinance, Access Equity & Grow Wealth
    Apr 7 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    In this episode, Cate and Dave dive into a topic that’s top of mind for many aspiring homeowners and investors—how to increase borrowing capacity. Whether you’re buying your first property, refinancing, or growing a portfolio, understanding what affects your borrowing power can help you make smarter decisions. Being aware of how banks consider the various elements of each applicant's scenario will enable you to plan your future decisions alongside your strategic mortgage broker with more clarity.

    In today's show, the Duo will cover:
    • How Lenders Assess Borrowing Capacity: Dave explains that borrowing capacity isn’t just about your income—it’s about how you structure your finances, manage debts, and work with a strategic mortgage broker. Income is assessed post-tax, with potential reductions (shading) applied to bonuses, rental income, and commissions. Even with online calculators, complexity with income means real results can differ widely.
    • Impact of Existing Debts: Lenders assess credit cards, personal loans, car leases, HECS, and child support (to name a few). Importantly, they apply a buffer rate of +3% on current and proposed loans to ensure you can cope with future rate rises.
    • Lender Policy: Every lender has different rules. Some are more generous with specific incomes or professions. Dave stresses that understanding lender policy requires an intimate understanding of the various lender's offerings and requirements—it’s complex and ever-changing. A good, strategic mortgage broker can tailor strategies across more than forty lenders to improve outcomes and enable their clients to reach their purchasing and money goal effectively. "The key is knowing where the levers are", says Dave.
    • Living Expenses: A major focus that Dave shares with us is the deep scrutiny on personal spending, especially since the Banking Royal Commission. Lenders no longer rely solely on HEM (Household Expenditure Measure); instead, they require detailed breakdowns across 15 expense categories—from groceries and utilities to insurance, childcare, and entertainment. Cate and Dave delve into these segments in detail in this show.
    • Practical Ways to Improve Capacity: Trimming even $500–$1,000 in monthly expenses can significantly boost how much you can borrow. Dave shares insights into how lenders assess discretionary vs non-discretionary expenses and what can realistically be cut if needed—highlighted by the now-famous "Wagyu and Shiraz" court ruling.
    • HEM Benchmarks: While no longer dominant, HEM (Household Expenditure Measure) still plays an important role. If your declared expenses are much higher, borrowing power can be significantly impacted. If they’re lower but justified, some lenders may accept your declared living expenses. Being familiar with the information that lenders scrutinise helps borrowers understand what influences lender's decisions around borrowing capacity.
    Understanding borrowing capacity is more than numbers—it’s strategy. Stay tuned for future episodes covering additional tactics to boost borrowing power and make the most of your financial potential.

    .... and our gold nuggets!

    Dave Johnston's gold nugget: having a conversation with your strategic mortgage broker about your goals, timing and opportunities to improve your circumstances and to make your goals achievable. "One element you can control is reducing your living expenses."

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: "I would implore anyone to identify a good mortgage broker and see what they can produce for you." From understanding loan options to getting a tailored solution applicable to your scenario - most people don't understand how complex their scenario could be to lenders.

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/04/07/increasing-borrowing-capacity-1/
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    42 min
  • #303: Avoiding Property Investment Traps - Off-the-Plan Risks, Market Timing & Spotting Property Spruikers
    Mar 31 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    Dave hosts this episode with Sarah's great listener question.

    Sarah writes in; "Melbourne will need to turn around at some point after underperforming. With this, there’s been an increase (or at least it seems like it) in marketing/spruiking around purchasing off-the-plan luxury apartments targeting down-sizer owner occupiers. I know someone who has bought into the Jam Factory complex with an SMSF after being lured in by the prospect of huge gains over the next decade. The same is happening in Brisbane where people are being told there’s still plenty of growth ahead of the Olympics. Should buyers be wary or will the eventual turnaround see apartments outperform? OTP or established? Or would you stick to houses instead? How to identify a spruiker over a genuine buyer’s agent, and how we identify the start of FOMO."

    Lastly, Sarah asks, "When is outer suburban a better investment than inner city or fringe?"

    Cate shares a sad experience that her uber driver talked to her about on a long drive. He had been encouraged to purchase an SMSF investment property by a mortgage broker who recommended a commercially-zoned, off-the-plan apartment. There were many red flags for this investor who received some very poor advice. Dave reminds our listeners that in this scenario, the buyer was not receiving any independent advice, and this is crucial.

    When will Melbourne turn a corner? Melbourne is showing early signs of a market turnaround, but we encourage her to revert to our Melbourne episode we recorded recently on whether mean reversion was a reliable theory for investors to rely upon.

    Cate agrees with Sarah's concerns that there has been an increase in marketing and spruiking in many of our markets. She offers some reasons for this, touching on some lucrative developer incentives and hard conditions for high density developments. Sarah's example of South Yarra's Jam Factory complex is a case in point. Cate and Dave delve into the reasons why this investor's purchase was less successful than planned. Scarcity counts for so much, and Dave implores investors to conduct thorough pricing research before they sign on the dotted line. Mike discusses the sub-optimal precedent set on valuations as other investors in the same block sell, and he also discusses the risks associated with struggling rents in a high density building.

    Limited visibility into recent historical prices is a key threat to accurate pricing analysis for off-the-plan purchasers. Understanding this invisible section of the property market is essential for those who are circling off-the-plan.

    Will apartments turn around? "There are apartments and there are apartments", says Cate. She explores some of the apartment types she favours and lists some of the important apartment criterion she adheres to. From outdoor space to orientation, there are many points to tick off the list, however a very important task relates to following up the strata manager.

    How can buyers identify a spruiker? Mike has some clever tips and questions for the investor to ask their advisor. A red flag also appears when the advisor is reluctant to work with any of the other professionals in the investor's circle. If the advisor is insisting on using only their professional contacts, this could be a red flag.

    How do you identify the start of FOMO? The Trio share some of the leading indicators to look out for. But is it artificial heat? How can a buyer get in before the herd? Tune in to find out...

    And lastly, Sarah asks, "When is outer-suburban a better investment than inner-city or fringe?" This is a big question, and it comes down to so many factors. An experienced property planner and/or an experienced buyers agent can walk an investor through this important decision.

    Thank you to Sarah for providing us with such a diverse range of great questions for this episode!

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/03/30/spruikers-and-off-the-plan-risk/
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    47 min
  • #302: Can You Predict Property Market Recoveries? Property Cycles & Mean Reversion – Is Melbourne A Hidden Opportunity or a Risky Bet?
    Mar 24 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    In this episode of the Property Trio, Dave, Cate and Mike delve into the concept of mean reversion in property investment, particularly focusing on the Melbourne market. If a market experiences a prolonged flat or declining period, should it eventually revert to its historical trajectory? Dave explains the theory of mean reversion, and its implications for property prices.

    "One month of data does not indicate a trend" as Dave correctly states.

    The Trio look at some examples where mean reversion has actually played out in property markets. Dave circles in on Sydney's property market pre and post 2000 as a textbook example of a city that exhibited mean reversion. Despite a challenging (and long) period of stagnation, Sydney did bounce back and 'resumed' it's historical trajectory.

    Mike cites the Perth market, and specifically, the cooling of this city's capital growth sprint following the mining industry boom. Did Perth demonstrate that the mean reversion theory didn't work? And as Mike ponders, how long does it take for mean reversion to kick in?

    Show notes:

    Mike shares some of his data on specific suburbs in Melbourne that exhibit significant growth gaps and the Trio consider the reliability of this analysis for selecting performing markets. Mike highlighted the local government areas that have demonstrated significant growth gaps, but how much can investors rely on data alone? Cate applies her local knowledge and offers some explanations for some of Mike's data findings. And Dave considers the growth gap and the dollar value shortfall for each of the picks in Mike's list.

    "Data is a tool. It has strengths and limitations."

    Why haven't some of the bluechip suburbs reverted to the mean? The conversation highlights both successful and cautionary examples of mean reversion, providing insights for investors on potential opportunities and risks in the current market.

    The Trio discuss the implications of market predictions, the significance of blue chip locations, and the impact of government policies on property prices. The conversation also highlights the importance of understanding economic indicators and the need for investors to be selective in their strategies. The Trio emphasise that while mean reversion is a powerful concept, it is not guaranteed, and investors should seek local expertise to navigate the complexities of the market.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/03/24/mean-reversion/
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    46 min
  • #301: Market Update Feb 25 – Melbourne Takes the Lead in Value Growth, Upper Quartile Drives Recovery and Buyer Sentiment Rises
    Mar 17 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM


    This week, Dave and Cate enjoy sharing the Monthly Market Update while Mike is cycling through Thailand for a very special charity ride. The duo unpack the February indices.... and they circle Melbourne and canvas the coalface, the metrics and some of the growth drivers. One month isn't a trend, but Cate and Dave have certainly experienced an uptick in activity and buyer sentiment since the auction season started in 2025.

    February can be a fully month, and Cate explains how some of this pent-up energy after a long Christmas break can often show peaks in this short month. The regions continue to hold firm and Dave and Cate chat about market segmentation. Trends emerge when markets transition, and the duo consider some of the key differences between 2024 and 2025.

    Rental rates continue to broadly moderate. "We've had a perfect correlation between our rental growth and the amount of air time that politicians get to discuss the rental crisis." Darwin has continued to surprise though and the duo consider the highs of 2021's rental movement in Darwin and the cause of this incredible spike.

    Dave reminds us of the stagnant nature of rental growth in the ten years prior to COVID however, and cites Pete Koulizos's claim that rents have merely been playing catch up. Household formation rates have increased of late though, and in tandem with the normalisation of overseas migration, it's little wonder that the rental growth rate has slowed.

    We've seen a slight increase in our vacancy rates across the board with the exception of Darwin and Hobart. Sample size and seasonality are two reasons for the variable vacancy rates for these two smaller cities.

    Total property listings tell us a lot about the overall state of the markets. Sydney's growth is substantial, and in spite of the additional stock levels. However, Perth's stock count is down, signalling a significant switch in the supply/demand ratio.

    What's happening with Canberra? ...and what explains the change? Tune in to find out!

    And the duo consider the tough contraction of old listings in the three highest performing markets of 2024 and they consider the correlation.

    What does the distressed listing data tell us about Victoria in particular? Keeping a perspective on these numbers is vital though; and as gross numbers, the distressed listing count is not as alarming as some may fear.

    The Westpac consumer sentiment data shows a subtle change following the interest rate cut, but it's "Time to buy a major household item" that registers the largest movement over the past month. Time to buy a dwelling is a great discussion point when looking at longer range changes, however. Dave references a segmented consumer sentiment though though, and it shows Victoria surging and WA pairing back substantially. The house price expectations index is still quite high at 145, signalling that people anticipate prices to keep rising. And the interest rate expectations index suggests that consumers are even more optimistic about cash rate movements.

    New loan commitments aren't showing enormous changes over the past quarter, but Christmas timing may have a bit to do with this.

    Cate circles in on personal lending, including vehicles and they consider the impact of financial hardship and the need for some households to turn to unsecured credit.

    And wage price index figures give us some interesting insights to discuss. A breakdown in the key industries leading the pack show up some of the recent shifts. The seasonally adjusted wage price index rose 0.7% in this quarter; a figure that is much inline with the RBA's target band for inflation

    Lastly, some positive news in the GDP figures give Dave and Cate a degree of optimism about our RBA's fight on inflation and our domestic economy. All of this is a welcome reprieve when talk of recession has been drifting above us like a dark cloud. We hope our listeners have enjoyed the show and we're cheering Mike on from the sidelines!

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/03/17/ep-301-feb-2025-market-update/
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    49 min