Will Unemployment Force A Rate Cut ?
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Will Unemployment Force A Rate Cut ?
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Canada's economy is facing significant challenges with unemployment rising to 7.1% in August 2025, the highest since 2016 (outside pandemic periods). The economy lost 66,000 jobs in August following 41,000 jobs lost in July. Trade tensions with the US are affecting tariff-exposed sectors, while the housing market shows a fragile recovery amid calls for interest rate cuts.
- Unemployment reached 7.1%, with 66,000 jobs lost in August, particularly in tariff-exposed sectors like manufacturing, transportation, and technical services; youth unemployment is especially high at 14.5%.
- Housing affordability remains challenging despite falling prices (GTA average home price down to $1,022,143 from $1,193,771 in 2022), with the housing cost-to-income ratio deteriorating to 7:1 nationally and 9:1 in Ontario.
- Markets strongly anticipate a Bank of Canada rate cut on September 17th (92% probability), with the policy rate currently at 2.75%, down from 5% in June 2024.
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