
Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Failed to add items
Add to Cart failed.
Add to Wish List failed.
Remove from wish list failed.
Follow podcast failed
Unfollow podcast failed
Buy Now for $25.00
-
Narrated by:
-
Joel Richards
-
Written by:
-
Philip Tetlock
-
Dan Gardner
About this listen
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.
©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.You may also enjoy...
-
Gaslighting
- Recognize Manipulative and Emotionally Abusive People -- and Break Free
- Written by: Stephanie Moulton Sarkis
- Narrated by: Suehyla El Attar, Stephanie Moulton Sarkis
- Length: 8 hrs and 32 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
A mental health expert sheds light on "gaslighting" - the manipulative technique used by sociopaths, narcissists, and others - offering practical strategies to cope and break free. Dr. Sarkis delves into the psychology behind the phenomenon, devoting chapters to specific scenarios, such as gaslighting in dating, in relationships, at work, and in families. With warning signs and examples of the destructive consequences along with practical tips and strategies, Gaslighting will help anyone trapped in a manipulative relationship to break free and heal from this toxic behavior.
-
-
I'm torn
- By Catharine on 2023-09-21
Written by: Stephanie Moulton Sarkis
-
Team Topologies: Organizing Business and Technology Teams for Fast Flow
- Written by: Matthew Skelton, Manuel Pais
- Narrated by: Edward Bauer
- Length: 6 hrs and 31 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Team Topologies is a practical, step-by-step, adaptive model for organizational design and team interaction based on four fundamental team types and three team interaction patterns. It is a model that treats teams as the fundamental means of delivery, where team structures and communication pathways are able to evolve with technological and organizational maturity. In Team Topologies, IT consultants Matthew Skelton and Manuel Pais share secrets of successful team patterns and interactions to help listeners choose and evolve the right team patterns for their organization.
-
-
Extremely helpful vision of engineering teams
- By Pablo de Oliveira Castro on 2021-08-16
Written by: Matthew Skelton, and others
-
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Daily Life
- Written by: Jason M. Satterfield, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Professor Jason M. Satterfield
- Length: 12 hrs and 24 mins
- Original Recording
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In the 24 compelling half-hour lectures of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Daily Life, Professor Jason Satterfield will help you build your cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) toolbox, giving you the skills you need to change those stories that hold you back and that keep you from experiencing your fullest life possible.
-
-
Everyone in the world needs to read this
- By Amazon Customer on 2022-12-11
Written by: Jason M. Satterfield, and others
-
Mental Models: 30 Thinking Tools that Separate the Average from the Exceptional
- Improved Decision-Making, Logical Analysis, and Problem-Solving
- Written by: Peter Hollins
- Narrated by: Russell Newton
- Length: 3 hrs and 57 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Mental models are like giving a treasure map to someone lost in the woods. They provide instant understanding, context, and most importantly, a path to the end destination. Now imagine having such a map for all problems and decisions in your life. Battle information overwhelm, focus on what really matters, and make complex decisions with speed and confidence.
-
-
Simple and effective delivery
- By Amazon Customer on 2023-12-30
Written by: Peter Hollins
-
The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- Written by: Shane Parrish
- Narrated by: Shane Parrish
- Length: 3 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
-
-
Great information let down by the narration
- By Jason on 2019-04-27
Written by: Shane Parrish
-
Why You Are Who You Are
- Investigations into Human Personality
- Written by: Mark Leary, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Mark Leary
- Length: 12 hrs and 52 mins
- Original Recording
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
To understand the roots of personality is to understand motivations and influences that shape behavior, which in turn reflect how you deal with the opportunities and challenges of everyday life. That's the focus of these exciting 24 lectures, in which you examine the differences in people's personalities, where these differences come from, and how they shape our lives. Drawing on information gleaned from psychology, neuroscience, and genetics, Professor Leary opens the door to understanding how personality works and why.
-
-
Mostly classification, less causation.
- By Richard on 2018-08-07
Written by: Mark Leary, and others
-
Gaslighting
- Recognize Manipulative and Emotionally Abusive People -- and Break Free
- Written by: Stephanie Moulton Sarkis
- Narrated by: Suehyla El Attar, Stephanie Moulton Sarkis
- Length: 8 hrs and 32 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
A mental health expert sheds light on "gaslighting" - the manipulative technique used by sociopaths, narcissists, and others - offering practical strategies to cope and break free. Dr. Sarkis delves into the psychology behind the phenomenon, devoting chapters to specific scenarios, such as gaslighting in dating, in relationships, at work, and in families. With warning signs and examples of the destructive consequences along with practical tips and strategies, Gaslighting will help anyone trapped in a manipulative relationship to break free and heal from this toxic behavior.
-
-
I'm torn
- By Catharine on 2023-09-21
Written by: Stephanie Moulton Sarkis
-
Team Topologies: Organizing Business and Technology Teams for Fast Flow
- Written by: Matthew Skelton, Manuel Pais
- Narrated by: Edward Bauer
- Length: 6 hrs and 31 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Team Topologies is a practical, step-by-step, adaptive model for organizational design and team interaction based on four fundamental team types and three team interaction patterns. It is a model that treats teams as the fundamental means of delivery, where team structures and communication pathways are able to evolve with technological and organizational maturity. In Team Topologies, IT consultants Matthew Skelton and Manuel Pais share secrets of successful team patterns and interactions to help listeners choose and evolve the right team patterns for their organization.
-
-
Extremely helpful vision of engineering teams
- By Pablo de Oliveira Castro on 2021-08-16
Written by: Matthew Skelton, and others
-
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Daily Life
- Written by: Jason M. Satterfield, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Professor Jason M. Satterfield
- Length: 12 hrs and 24 mins
- Original Recording
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In the 24 compelling half-hour lectures of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Daily Life, Professor Jason Satterfield will help you build your cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) toolbox, giving you the skills you need to change those stories that hold you back and that keep you from experiencing your fullest life possible.
-
-
Everyone in the world needs to read this
- By Amazon Customer on 2022-12-11
Written by: Jason M. Satterfield, and others
-
Mental Models: 30 Thinking Tools that Separate the Average from the Exceptional
- Improved Decision-Making, Logical Analysis, and Problem-Solving
- Written by: Peter Hollins
- Narrated by: Russell Newton
- Length: 3 hrs and 57 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Mental models are like giving a treasure map to someone lost in the woods. They provide instant understanding, context, and most importantly, a path to the end destination. Now imagine having such a map for all problems and decisions in your life. Battle information overwhelm, focus on what really matters, and make complex decisions with speed and confidence.
-
-
Simple and effective delivery
- By Amazon Customer on 2023-12-30
Written by: Peter Hollins
-
The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- Written by: Shane Parrish
- Narrated by: Shane Parrish
- Length: 3 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
-
-
Great information let down by the narration
- By Jason on 2019-04-27
Written by: Shane Parrish
-
Why You Are Who You Are
- Investigations into Human Personality
- Written by: Mark Leary, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Mark Leary
- Length: 12 hrs and 52 mins
- Original Recording
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
To understand the roots of personality is to understand motivations and influences that shape behavior, which in turn reflect how you deal with the opportunities and challenges of everyday life. That's the focus of these exciting 24 lectures, in which you examine the differences in people's personalities, where these differences come from, and how they shape our lives. Drawing on information gleaned from psychology, neuroscience, and genetics, Professor Leary opens the door to understanding how personality works and why.
-
-
Mostly classification, less causation.
- By Richard on 2018-08-07
Written by: Mark Leary, and others
-
Ikigai & Kaizen
- The Japanese Strategy to Achieve Personal Happiness and Professional Success (How to set goals, stop procrastinating, be more productive, build good habits, focus, & thrive)
- Written by: Anthony Raymond
- Narrated by: KC Wayman
- Length: 5 hrs
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Discover the Japanese secret to unlocking your purpose, productivity, and passion in life!
-
-
Good content. Poor flow.
- By Chris b. on 2021-05-02
Written by: Anthony Raymond
-
Food: A Cultural Culinary History
- Written by: Ken Albala, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Ken Albala
- Length: 18 hrs and 22 mins
- Original Recording
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Eating is an indispensable human activity. As a result, whether we realize it or not, the drive to obtain food has been a major catalyst across all of history, from prehistoric times to the present. Epicure Jean-Anthelme Brillat-Savarin said it best: "Gastronomy governs the whole life of man."
-
-
This is a Western food history course
- By Anonymous on 2019-05-15
Written by: Ken Albala, and others
-
Tell Yourself a Better Lie
- Use the Power of Rapid Transformational Therapy to Edit Your Story and Rewrite Your Life.
- Written by: Marisa Peer
- Narrated by: Carlyss Peer
- Length: 8 hrs and 36 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Our lives are defined by the stories we tell ourselves, but those stories aren't always true. Narratives that are based on outdated or irrelevant information can run (or ruin) our lives for years, even if those stories are wildly different from the objective reality that formed them.
-
-
Profound, Insightful, Amazing.
- By Mike on 2022-01-13
Written by: Marisa Peer
-
A Therapeutic Journey: Lessons from The School of Life
- Written by: Alain de Botton
- Narrated by: Charlie Anson
- Length: 9 hrs and 8 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
A Therapeutic Journey follows the arc from mental crisis and collapse, to convalescence and recovery. Written with kindness, knowledge and sympathy, it is both a practical guide and a source of consolation and companionship in what might be some of our loneliest, most anguished moments.
-
-
Amazing book!
- By Lucie on 2025-06-13
Written by: Alain de Botton
-
Objections
- The Ultimate Guide for Mastering the Art and Science of Getting past No
- Written by: Jeb Blount, Mark Hunter - foreword by
- Narrated by: Jeb Blount
- Length: 5 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Every salesperson must endure many NOs in order to get to YES. Objections don't care or consider: who you are, what you sell, how you sell, or if you are new to sales or a veteran. For as long as salespeople have been asking buyers to make commitments, buyers have been throwing out objections. And, for as long as buyers have been saying no, salespeople have yearned for the secrets to getting past those NOs. Objections is a comprehensive and contemporary guide that engages your heart and mind.
-
-
practical and honest
- By Mike on 2020-05-10
Written by: Jeb Blount, and others
-
The Madness of Crowds
- Gender, Race and Identity
- Written by: Douglas Murray
- Narrated by: Douglas Murray
- Length: 11 hrs and 56 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In The Madness of Crowds Douglas Murray investigates the dangers of ‘woke’ culture and the rise of identity politics. In lively, razor-sharp prose he examines the most controversial issues of our moment: sexuality, gender, technology and race, with interludes on the Marxist foundations of ‘wokeness’, the impact of tech and how, in an increasingly online culture, we must relearn the ability to forgive.
-
-
Preaching to the choir and little else.
- By Parallax Abstraction on 2019-09-29
Written by: Douglas Murray
-
Screenwriting 101: Mastering the Art of Story
- Written by: Angus Fletcher, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Angus Fletcher
- Length: 12 hrs and 44 mins
- Original Recording
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Whether you want to write your own scripts or simply gain a deeper appreciation for the great stories you see unfold on the screen, Professor Angus Fletcher is here to show you the way in Screenwriting 101: Mastering the Art of Story. Professor Fletcher, Professor of English and Film at The Ohio State University, brings both a personal and scholarly perspective to this craft. As a screenwriter himself, he has experienced the ins and outs of the process first-hand.
-
-
Not practical
- By Marie-Louise on 2019-01-03
Written by: Angus Fletcher, and others
-
Mastering Trading Psychology
- Improve Your Trading with Firsthand Reports by Real-Life Traders
- Written by: Andrew Aziz, Mike Baehr
- Narrated by: Chris Abell
- Length: 9 hrs and 19 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Andrew Aziz describes technology, strategy, and psychology as the three essential pillars of successful trading, and he knows that the psychological aspects of trading are the most likely to be underestimated or even ignored. He wrote Mastering Trading Psychology to help traders enhance their understanding of this crucial pillar of trading and to strengthen their "mental skills" in order to maximize their performance.
-
-
what is this? a Simpsons greatest hits episode?
- By bigkiddreams on 2021-09-05
Written by: Andrew Aziz, and others
-
The Greatness Guide
- 101 Lessons for Making What’s Good at Work and in Life Even Better
- Written by: Robin Sharma
- Narrated by: Adam Verner
- Length: 4 hrs and 17 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Each one of us is called to greatness. We can have a significant impact on the world around us - if we so choose. If you are looking to craft an extraordinary life, The Greatness Guide is the powerful and practical handbook that will inspire you. Passionate, provocative, and full of big ideas that will challenge and transform, The Greatness Guide is one of those rare books that will release your potential and awaken your best self. Make the leap today and learn what the best do to become even better.
-
-
The narrator is soooo annoying
- By K E on 2020-05-15
Written by: Robin Sharma
-
Critical Thinking & Logic Mastery
- 3 Books In 1: How to Make Smarter Decisions, Conquer Logical Fallacies, and Sharpen Your Thinking
- Written by: Thinknetic
- Narrated by: Adrian M. Lopez
- Length: 10 hrs and 15 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
What skills do you need to succeed today? How can you make better choices? In today's fast world, it's important to have certain skills for success. With so much fake news and information everywhere, critical thinking and logic are crucial. These skills help us think well and make good decisions. They help us understand why things are how they are, figure out what influences them, and come up with ways to make things better. One of the reasons most of us fall short in thinking critically is that our educational system doesn't teach critical thinking.
-
-
Helpful book on the subject
- By Ashish Kumar on 2022-11-14
Written by: Thinknetic
-
Drive
- The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us
- Written by: Daniel H. Pink
- Narrated by: Daniel H. Pink
- Length: 5 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Most people believe that the best way to motivate is with rewards like money - the carrot-and-stick approach. That's a mistake, says Daniel H. Pink (author of To Sell Is Human: The Surprising Truth About Motivating Others). In this provocative and persuasive new book, he asserts that the secret to high performance and satisfaction - at work, at school, and at home - is the deeply human need to direct our own lives, to learn and create new things, and to do better by ourselves and our world.
-
-
Motivation 3.0
- By Steve on 2019-01-07
Written by: Daniel H. Pink
-
Overcoming Unwanted Intrusive Thoughts
- A CBT-Based Guide to Getting over Frightening, Obsessive, or Disturbing Thoughts
- Written by: Sally M. Winston PsyD, Martin N. Seif PhD
- Narrated by: Senn Annis
- Length: 5 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
If you suffer from unwanted, intrusive, frightening, or even disturbing thoughts, you might worry about what these thoughts mean about you. Thoughts can seem like messages - are they trying to tell you something? But the truth is that they are just thoughts, and don’t necessarily mean anything. Sane and good people have them. If you are someone who is plagued by thoughts you don’t want - thoughts that scare you, or thoughts you can’t tell anyone about - this book may change your life.
-
-
Amazing book anyone could benefit from!
- By Eileen Duffy on 2020-06-01
Written by: Sally M. Winston PsyD, and others
Overall, somewhat disappointing
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
loved it
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.