如果股票名師的名牌真的準，那會不會在他抱出明牌的當下，投資人就迅速湧入，造成本來準的都不準了呢? 覺得這個聽起來很像繞口令又矛盾嗎? 沒關西 我們今天來解析效率市場假說。
你以為你抓到內線、就能打敗市場？今天我們要聊的，就是傳說中的「效率市場假說」（EMH）所謂的市場有效率，意思是所有資訊都已經反映在股價上，你以為的獨門消息，其實大家早就知道了。如果市場真的有效，那我們應該怎麼投資？ETF、定期定額、長期持有才是王道？延伸討論，你覺得考大學是不是也是有效率的市場? 那需要面試的推薦申請是不是也是具備效率性? 本集帶你用最白話、最故事化的方式，重新認識這個左右全世界投資邏輯的重要理論。你信不信由你，重點是，別再被「小道消息」牽著走啦！

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你以為毒販都開跑車住豪宅?實際上他們大多月收根本沒辦法支持生活?你以為罰款可以解決問題，但為什麼收了遲到罰金家長反而更常遲到?你以為犯罪率下降是警察變多，結果可能跟墮胎合法化有關?本集我們帶你導讀經典名作《Freakonomics》《蘋果橘子經濟學》拆解幾個最逆思維的觀點，但並延伸到投資市場中常見的錯誤歸因，錯誤激勵，贏者全拿與行為偏誤。一場「經濟學 X 投資行為學」的腦洞之旅。告訴你看數據之前你該先問為什麼?

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That delicious-looking strawberry cake might just be half a frozen berry on top of a disappointing sponge.
The same goes for financial markets. From the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that triggered the 2008 Lehman collapse and global financial crisis, to today’s Bitcoin craze—what exactly is the “dessert” you're swallowing made of?
In this episode, we use a full story-driven analogy to explain why strawberry cakes can actually predict the packaging tricks of financial products. We dive into how the layered structure of MBS contributed to the 2007–2009 financial crisis, and follow the timeline to the rise of Bitcoin and how MicroStrategy (MSTR) transformed from a software company into a Bitcoin-hoarding fanatic.
Can the average investor really copy MSTR’s strategy? Or are they just another fool fooled by sweet-looking desserts?
Because what the market lacks isn't financial innovation—it’s insight.

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