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The Rational Reminder Podcast

The Rational Reminder Podcast

Auteur(s): Benjamin Felix Cameron Passmore and Dan Bortolotti
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À propos de cet audio

 A weekly reality check on sensible investing and financial decision-making, from three Canadians. Hosted by Benjamin Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Dan Bortolotti, Portfolio Managers at PWL Capital.2025 copyright - PWL Capital, all rights reserved Finances personnelles Économie
Épisodes
  • Episode 392: The Rise of ETF Slop

    Episode 392: The Rise of ETF Slop
    Jan 15 2026
    ETFs were once almost synonymous with low-cost, sensible investing. But that era is changing fast. In this episode, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Ben Wilson introduce and unpack the concept of "ETF slop"—the explosion of complex, high-fee, behaviorally engineered ETFs that are designed to attract assets rather than improve investor outcomes. The trio traces how ETFs evolved from simple index-building tools into wrappers for increasingly speculative strategies. They discuss how the ETF "halo effect" can mislead investors into equating structure with quality, and why innovation in financial products often benefits manufacturers more than end investors. From thematic hype to downside "protection" that isn't what it seems, the episode offers a clear framework for thinking critically about modern ETF offerings. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:04) Introduction to the Rational Reminder Podcast and the hosts. (0:00:39) Ben introduces the idea of "ETF slop" and why ETFs are no longer synonymous with sensible investing. (2:20) More actively managed ETFs now exist than index-tracking ETFs in the U.S. (3:30) ETFs increasingly engineered to attract assets rather than improve investor outcomes. (4:04) Record ETF launches in 2025: over 1,000 in the U.S. and 300+ in Canada. (6:43) Average management fees on newly launched ETFs rival traditional active mutual funds. (7:47) The ETF "halo effect" and why structure is mistaken for quality. (10:31) What an ETF actually is—and why it's just a wrapper for a strategy. (11:13) The first ETF was launched in Canada and still exists today. (14:40) ETFs as tools for speculation versus long-term investing. (17:08) Evidence that simpler allocation funds reduce harmful investor behavior. (20:35) Why too much product choice can make good investing harder. (21:40) Four categories of ETF slop introduced: thematic, buffer, covered call, and single-stock ETFs. (22:16) Why thematic ETFs appeal to optimism and extrapolation bias. (24:04) Evidence that most thematic ETFs underperform after launch. (26:25) Morningstar data: almost no thematic ETFs outperform over long horizons. (28:55) Why exciting narratives don't translate into superior returns. (31:25) Buffer ETFs explained: capped upside with partial downside protection. (34:31) Research showing high fees, high costs, and inconsistent protection. (38:16) Why simple stock/bond mixes dominate buffer ETFs even in drawdowns. (42:53) Covered calls: high income today, lower total returns tomorrow. (45:48) Why covered call ETFs systematically underperform their underlying assets. (47:38) Income needs can be met more efficiently without covered calls. (48:19) The cult-like following driven by double-digit yield marketing. (49:57) Single-stock ETFs as the "sloppiest" form of ETF slop. (53:44) Leveraged and inverse ETFs magnify volatility and complexity. (56:20) Research showing massive underperformance versus simple benchmarks. (58:56) Why these products resemble speculation more than investing. (1:03:35) Complexity in investment products is strongly linked to poor outcomes. (1:05:48) John Bogle's warning: beware of new and "hot" investment products. (1:06:48) Why ETFs are powerful tools—but only when used correctly. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Ben Wilson on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-wilson/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)
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    1 h et 15 min
  • Episode 391: How Assumptions Shape Financial Planning Outcomes

    Episode 391: How Assumptions Shape Financial Planning Outcomes
    Jan 8 2026

    Financial planning is built on assumptions — about markets, inflation, longevity, human behaviour, and even the questions clients bring into the room. In this episode, Ben and Braden welcome a diverse panel that originally came together at the FP Canada Conference to explore how those assumptions influence planning outcomes in practice. Joining them are Adam Chapman, a retirement-focused planner who helps clients turn their money into memories; Joe Nunes, an actuary with decades of pension and longevity experience; and Aaron Theilade, Director of Continuing Education at FP Canada. Together, the panel unpacks how to make assumptions credible, how to stress-test them, how to navigate client bias, and how planners can blend math with humanity to create better client outcomes.



    Key Points From This Episode:

    (0:00:04) Why this episode: recreating a conference panel on planning assumptions.

    (0:01:03) Braden on the panel's value for planners and DIY investors.

    (0:02:32) Meet the guests: Adam, Joe, Aaron, and Braden.

    (0:06:04) Assumptions matter: directional accuracy > prediction.

    (0:07:47) Actuarial view: start with inflation, bond yields, and risk capacity.

    (0:09:38) Engineering mindset: plan for expected and unexpected outcomes.

    (0:13:21) Client pushback: longevity surprises and hidden assumptions.

    (0:16:59) Asset allocation: strategic, goal-based, informed by behaviour.

    (0:20:57) Software limits: life is too variable for perfect modeling.

    (0:22:01) Behaviour gap: retirees spend less over time despite inflation.

    (0:25:18) Software guides; planners interpret and humanize outputs.

    (0:28:48) Use assumptions based on the specific question (e.g., withdrawals).

    (0:30:31) Always ask: "Why are we modeling this?"

    (0:34:15) Handling bias: reframe assumptions to reveal inconsistencies.

    (0:38:19) Assumptions evolve: returns, spending, and research all change.

    (0:42:38) Longevity beliefs: explore "why," not just the data.

    (0:50:38) Core truth: every plan is wrong — planning is iterative.

    (0:52:20) When to update: depends on age, goals, and material changes.

    (0:57:23) PWL approach: twice-yearly updates + adjustments during extremes.

    (1:00:03) Tips: focus on behaviour, communication, goals, and integration.

    (1:10:02) Success: relationships, impact, freedom, and sharing knowledge.



    Links From Today's Episode:

    Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

    Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
    Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

    Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/
    Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

    Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

    Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/



    Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)
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    1 h et 16 min
  • Episode 390: The "AI Bubble" and Stock Market Concentration

    Episode 390: The "AI Bubble" and Stock Market Concentration
    Jan 1 2026
    In this first episode of 2026, we sit down for a deep dive into one of the hottest concerns coming from clients and listeners lately: Is the U.S. stock market dangerously concentrated—and are we in an AI bubble? Ben, Dan, and Ben unpack the data, the history, and the psychology behind today's valuations, drawing lessons from past episodes of market euphoria such as Nortel in Canada, the dot-com boom, and Japan's 1989 peak. They explain why high market valuations—not concentration—pose the bigger challenge, how bubbles historically fuel real economic innovation while hurting investors, and why diversification continues to offer the only reliable protection against unknowable futures. Along the way, they revisit examples of how value stocks, small-cap value, and global diversification have fared across different market regimes. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:40) What RR is about: evidence-based insights, synthesis episodes, expert interviews, and long-form inquiry — not debates. (0:04:20) Why listeners value RR: transparency, friendly inquiry, returning to topics over time, and the hosts' dynamic. (0:09:25) Rising concern: clients asking whether U.S. market concentration and an AI bubble mean it's time to exit stocks. (0:11:10) Advisors echo similar worries: U.S. politics, all-time highs, and emotional decision-making. (0:14:20) Today's data point: Top seven U.S. stocks = 36% of S&P 500; 32% of the total U.S. market — highest on record. (0:16:10) Why people fear concentration: a decline in the Magnificent Seven could meaningfully drag down the index. (0:17:30) Canada's cautionary tale: Nortel once hit 36% of the TSX — collapsed to zero — but the market recovered by 2005. (0:21:20) Bubbles through history: canals, railways, fiber optics, dot-coms — innovation funded by speculation. (0:25:30) Dot-com parallels: huge ideas, low cost of capital, lots of failures — but lasting infrastructure remained. (0:28:40) AI dominance: Since ChatGPT, AI-linked companies drove 75% of S&P returns, 80% of earnings growth, 90% of capex. (0:31:15) Reminder: No bubble calls — just context. High prices don't equal an inevitable crash. (0:33:10) Concentration vs. valuation: concentration shows weak links to future returns; valuations matter far more. (0:35:05) Market timing trap: U.S. valuations were high in 2021 — selling then would have been disastrous. (0:36:40) The U.S. lost decade: 2000–2010 returns were flat; in CAD, recovery didn't happen until 2013. (0:38:55) Value stocks held up: U.S. value and small-cap value delivered positive returns while broad indexes stagnated. (0:41:00) Recency bias reminder: Canadians once avoided U.S. stocks entirely after a decade of underperformance. (0:44:05) Japan 1989: World's largest market crashes — still not recovered in real terms 36 years later. (0:47:10) Global diversification wins: A 40% Japan-weighted global portfolio still performed fine thanks to U.S. growth. (0:49:00) Cross-country data: Many markets are far more concentrated than the U.S. — still delivered solid returns. (0:52:30) Valuation evidence: Higher CAPE = lower future returns — economically strong pattern across countries. (0:55:40) Core lesson: Diversification + discipline. You will always hold winners and losers — that's the point. (0:57:55) Practical ways to lower concentration risk: global equity funds, small caps, and Canada's 10% cap rule. (1:00:30) Why active managers don't help: only ~30–47% outperform depending on concentration trend. (1:03:25) Final takeaway: high valuations may imply lower returns, but prediction is impossible — stay diversified. (1:05:15) After-show review: Addressing a one-star critique ("Fartcoin Designer") with humour and community context. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)
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    1 h et 10 min
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Every week this podcast presents curated information on how to be a better investor and live a happier and more fulfilling life.

changed my perspective and life

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Absolutely best personal finance podcast.
The two hosts do an incredibly week thought out job at providing educational information. All the information is based on academic research and referenced.

Through this podcast I not only developed my financial literacy tenfold, but also my curiosity on many different subjects and my drive to read more!

Thanks a million keep up the great work!

Life changing

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These guys do a great job of deciphering the topics of discussion. Easy to follow and understand if you're not in the industry yourself, but have a genuine interest. To top it all off, they have top notch guests on the show, who have incredible depth of experience in their respective fields.

Worth your time if you enjoy finance, markets and investing

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