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Auteur(s): Justin Robert Young
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 Unbiased political analysis the way you wish still existed. Justin Robert Young isn't here to tell you what to think, he's here to tell you who is going to win and why.

www.politicspoliticspolitics.comJustin Robert Young Monde Politique
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  • What's Going On With The Midterms? Talking Democrat Party Frustrations (with Amanda Nelson)

    What's Going On With The Midterms? Talking Democrat Party Frustrations (with Amanda Nelson)
    Aug 27 2025
    But I don’t want to focus on the Democrats right now. I want to focus on the Republican Party because one of the big things that’s going to shape the midterms — which, make no mistake, are going to be nationalized — is how the American public feels about the GOP. That includes the party’s overall image, the fact that they currently hold the House, Senate, and the White House, and the role of Donald Trump as president. Historically, that’s usually the kiss of death in a midterm. The public looks at single-party control and, whether consciously or not, pulls back a bit. It’s a check on power, and more often than not, it happens.I still believe, sitting here in late August of 2025, that Democrats are in a good position to take the House back in 2026. The redistricting mess adds some chaos, but even assuming that plays out neutrally or slightly in their favor, the historical precedent is clear — they should be competitive. That said, if we were heading toward something other than a typical midterm correction, you’d start to see signs. Not signs that Democrats are collapsing — that’s already evident in other areas — but signs that voters are unusually comfortable with Republican governance.And you know what? Those signs are there.If I had to judge the early terrain by three hard metrics, I’d go with national fundraising, party registration, and the president’s approval rating. Let’s start with the money. The Republican National Committee currently has $65 million in cash on hand. That’s not an overwhelming total, but it’s strong — especially with a year to go. More importantly, it’s four times what the Democratic National Committee has. The DNC is sitting on just $15 million. That gap alone is bad enough, but it gets worse when you factor in spending decisions like Proposition 50 in California. That fight — to temporarily override the independent redistricting commission — is going to vacuum up cash from the same organizations and donors who would otherwise be investing in House flips. So the Democrats are undercapitalized, and they’re committing resources to side projects.Then there’s registration data. According to a recent New York Times report, Democrats have lost 2.4 million registered voters in swing states that track party affiliation. In the same set of states, Republicans have gained nearly that same amount. That’s a five million voter swing. It’s not just that Democrats are losing — Republicans are growing. That kind of shift doesn’t usually happen in the middle of a polarizing presidency. People don’t suddenly start checking the box for the incumbent party unless something is resonating. And considering the kind of term Donald Trump is having — rapid policy implementation, constant headline churn, immigration crackdowns, inflation waves, even distractions like the Epstein debacle — you’d expect backlash. Instead, you get a net positive in party affiliation.That brings us to approval ratings. Trump’s RealClearPolitics average stands at 46.3 percent. He’s still underwater, with 50.8 percent disapproving. But let’s add context. That number is higher than Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, or even Ronald Reagan had at this same point in their second terms. That’s unusual. And while being underwater is never ideal, that 4.5-point spread is about what you’d expect for Trump when you factor in how he’s consistently undercounted in national polling. And the range of poll results is all over the map — Rasmussen has him up one, Harvard Harris has him down two, YouGov has him down 12, and Gallup just released a poll with him down 16. But even Gallup’s number is an improvement from previous weeks, which suggests that Trump’s “tough on crime” stance — especially in DC — is landing.So when I step back and look at the full picture, what I see is a Republican Party that isn’t being punished. That might sound basic, but it’s a big deal. Historically, you’d expect that by now — with the administration moving aggressively, Democrats hammering every misstep, and inflation rising — the electorate would be turning. But instead, Republicans have a funding advantage, a registration advantage, and a president who’s polling better than most of his second-term predecessors.That doesn’t mean they’re going to hold the House. The historical pattern still favors Democrats picking up seats. But it does mean that the GOP is better positioned than it has any right to be under these circumstances. And if your theory of the midterms is based on Trump’s agenda — the one big, beautiful bill, cutting Medicaid, handing out tax breaks, and all the rest — then you have to reckon with the fact that, at least for now, it isn’t hurting them. Maybe that changes. But if this were going to backfire, I would have liked to have seen a little something from it by now.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:04:20 - Early Midterms Thoughts00:16:21...
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    1 h et 32 min
  • Gretchen Whitmer's Big Gamble and The Race to Redistricting (with Alex Isenstadt and Evan Scrimshaw)

    Gretchen Whitmer's Big Gamble and The Race to Redistricting (with Alex Isenstadt and Evan Scrimshaw)
    Aug 22 2025

    Katie Porter's Surge in the California Governor Race

    With Kamala Harris opting out of a gubernatorial run, Katie Porter is reaping the benefits. New polling from Politico shows Porter pulling ahead, with 30 percent of Harris's former supporters now backing her. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra trail behind at 16 and 11 percent, respectively. Porter's advantage comes from her visibility and defined ideology — she’s well known and clearly positioned on the progressive spectrum.

    California's jungle primary system means all candidates run on the same ballot, and the top two — regardless of party — face off in the general. Right now, two Republicans are splitting their share of the vote, which adds up to something in the thirties. Porter is in the driver’s seat, but with that comes the expectation of incoming fire. Her reputation for detail and sharp questioning in Congress could cut both ways — she's admired for precision but rumored to have a temper and staff issues that may resurface.

    If you ask me, I'd rather be in her shoes than anyone else’s in this race. Governor Porter is no longer a long shot — she's a top contender. Sure, she's not universally loved, and her style is a sharp contrast to someone like Gavin Newsom, who leans more on charisma than policy depth. But Porter's grounded, process-oriented approach might resonate with voters ready for a different kind of leadership. It's early — but she's clearly in the lead.

    The Freedom Caucus Exodus

    Chip Roy is heading home — not just to Texas, but into the state attorney general race. He’s leaving behind his role in the House and with it, another domino falls in the dissolution of the Freedom Caucus. He’s not alone. Byron Donalds is going for Florida governor. Barry Moore wants a Senate seat in Alabama. Ralph Norman is aiming for South Carolina’s governor’s mansion. The list goes on — and the pattern is clear.

    These were the hardliners — the names you heard when Speaker fights broke out or when high-stakes votes were in play. Now, they’re moving on, seeking promotions or exits. The Freedom Caucus’ influence, once loud and obstructive, is quietly fading. They all bent the knee to Trump eventually, and now it seems like they’re cashing out or repositioning for relevance in state politics.

    In Texas, the AG job is a powerful one. Ken Paxton used it as a springboard and wielded it aggressively. If Roy wins, expect more of that hard-edged, action-first governance. But nationally, their exodus signals something more — the end of a chapter. The Freedom Caucus isn’t what it was, and its main voices are scattering. Their watch has ended.

    Tulsi Gabbard's Deep State Overhaul

    Tulsi Gabbard, now Director of National Intelligence, has unveiled ODNI 2.0 — a major restructuring plan that slashes staff and consolidates units focused on countering foreign influence and cyber threats. The goal is to cut $700 million annually — a bold move, but one in line with this administration’s mission to slim down government operations. It’s another signal that this White House doesn’t operate under old assumptions.

    The intelligence world, long a target of Trumpian criticism, is being gutted — not just for size but for perceived bias. There’s a strong undercurrent here about the so-called deep state and its relationship with the press. This move isn’t just administrative — it’s cultural. It’s about information control. Gabbard is targeting the pipelines that leak classified narratives to shape public perception.

    Living in D.C., you feel the impact of this. It’s a company town — when the company is laying off hundreds, the town shifts. Longer happy hours. People breaking leases. Uncertainty hanging in the air. But if you're in this administration, it’s not about sympathy. It’s about loyalty — or the lack thereof. And for many who see Trump as the duly elected CEO of the U.S. government, trimming the fat is justice, not politics.

    Chapters

    00:00:00 - Intro

    00:02:43 - Interview with Alex Isenstadt

    00:27:40 - Update

    00:28:54 - Katie Porter

    00:31:49 - Chip Roy

    00:34:28 - Gabbard Cuts

    00:41:23 - Interview with Evan Scrimshaw

    01:31:52 - Wrap-up



    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
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    1 h et 37 min
  • What Maine's Primary Says About the Midterms. Breaking Down Energy Credits and Climate Change (with Alex Epstein)

    What Maine's Primary Says About the Midterms. Breaking Down Energy Credits and Climate Change (with Alex Epstein)
    Aug 19 2025
    Graham Plattner is running for Senate in Maine. He’s not a career politician. He’s not a household name. He’s a newcomer, and he’s coming in with the kind of video that’s designed to break through the noise. It’s everything you’d expect from someone trying to signal that they’re different — kettlebell lifting, scuba diving, oyster farming, military gear. This is Fetterman-core, and I mean that in the pre-stroke, media-savvy, meme-friendly way. It’s intentionally loud, intentionally masculine, and intentionally designed to get people talking.But this isn’t just a vibe campaign. Plattner’s already built a real team. He’s working with the same media shop that did ads for Zohran Mamdani in New York and helped elect Fetterman in Pennsylvania. These aren’t DCCC types. They’re insurgent operatives with a history of getting attention — and winning. That tells me Plattner’s not just here to make a point. He’s running to win. And in a state like Maine, where ideological boundaries don’t map neatly onto party lines, he might actually have a shot.Democratic leadership, though, has other plans. Chuck Schumer and his operation would clearly prefer Janet Mills. She’s the sitting governor, she’s 77 years old, and she’d walk into the race with a national fundraising network already behind her. But that’s exactly the kind of candidate a guy like Plattner is built to run against. If she enters, it turns this race into a referendum on the Democratic establishment. And it gives Susan Collins exactly what she wants: two Democrats locked in a bitter primary while she gears up for a calm general election campaign.Maine is weird politically. I don’t mean that as an insult — I mean it’s unpredictable in a way that defies national modeling. This is a state that elects independents, splits tickets, and shrugs at coastal assumptions. A candidate like Plattner, who’s running a progressive but culturally savvy campaign, could actually catch fire. He’s already signaling that he’s not going to run from the Second Amendment — which would make him a unicorn among progressives — and he seems to get that guns, culture, and economic populism all intersect here in a way that’s not neat or clean.It’s early, and most people outside the state probably haven’t even heard of him. But he’s getting coverage. And he’s trying to frame himself as the guy who will show up everywhere — from left-wing podcasts to centrist fundraisers to gun ranges in rural districts. If he pulls it off, it won’t just be a Maine story. It’ll be a signal that Democrats are still capable of producing candidates who can speak across class and cultural lines without watering down the message. We’ll see if he holds up under pressure.Trump, Zelensky, and the Shape of a Ukraine DealTrump’s pushing a peace summit with Russia and Ukraine, and the location that’s gained traction is Budapest. That’s not a random choice. Budapest is where Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for guarantees that turned out to be meaningless. Putin invaded anyway. So now, years later, trying to broker a peace deal in that same city feels almost poetic — or cynical, depending on how you look at it. Macron wants Geneva. Putin wants Moscow. Orbán, who runs Hungary, is offering Budapest as neutral turf. That offer seems to be sticking.The terms of the talks are shifting. Zelensky isn’t being required to agree to a ceasefire before negotiations begin — which is a major departure from the Biden administration’s stance. Trump’s team seems to believe that real movement can happen only if you start talking now, without preconditions. That’s risky. But it’s also more flexible. The Russians are now suggesting they might accept something like NATO-style security guarantees for Ukraine — just without the name “NATO.” That’s a big shift. If they’re serious, it opens up a lane for something that looks like independence and protection without triggering all-out war.Zelensky, for his part, is in a bind. His approval rating has dropped. His party just lost ground. The economy is on life support. And the longer the war goes on, the harder it is to keep Ukrainians fully on board with total resistance. That’s not a moral failing — it’s exhaustion. What Ukraine wants now, more than anything, is certainty. If they’re going to give up territory — and no one’s saying that out loud, but everyone’s thinking it — then they want to know they’ll never have to fight this war again. That’s where the Article 5-style guarantees come in.Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, is reportedly testing those waters. And Marco Rubio said the quiet part out loud — that if Ukraine can get real security commitments in exchange for ending the war, it’s worth exploring. This isn’t the “bleed Russia dry” strategy the Biden administration backed. That was about regime change through attrition. This is ...
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    1 h et 40 min
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